The Turnbull ETS wild card

 This week’s Newspoll must be a worry for the Coalition, showing as it does the same 2PP of 58/42 as the poll in early February.  Since that poll the Opposition has made a display of what it believed was economic responsibility by opposing the fiscal stimulus package, a move it hoped might bolster its economic credibility.  However it prudently acknowledged that it ‘might take a hit in the polls’ for opposing a Government move that would likely be popular with the people.  The fact that today’s poll was no worse for the Coalition has predictably been interpreted by some of its members as reassuring, especially after last week’s party dissonance.

But there seems to be something else happening.  After the Newspoll of December 5-7 where the 2PP was 59/41 in contrast to figures around 55/45 for months, there was the suggestion that that poll was aberrant, as occasionally an individual poll can be.  That feeling was reinforced when the next one came in at 54/46, a return to the Newspoll ‘norm’.  Since then though two polls have been at 58/42, so three of the last four Newspolls, taken over the last three months, have been around that figure.  Does this mean that the trend is towards a resetting of the Newspoll norm to around 58/42?   Other polls over the last month or two give even poorer results for the Coalition: Essential Research this week was 62/38 and Morgan 59.5/40.5.  Possum’s Pollytrack shows 59/41 and his All Poll Average 58.6/41.4.  They are all in the same ball park, despite varying methodologies. More...

Malcolm Turnbull’s intelligence

There seems to be little disagreement, even amongst his detractors, that Malcolm Turnbull is highly intelligent.  It almost goes without saying.

Yet how can someone with his purported intelligence do such dumb things all through last week?  Is it because intelligence is not a homogenous attribute?  Is it because one can be intelligent in some areas and the opposite in others? More...

A heart-warming remembrance

The National Day of Mourning for those affected by the February 7 bushfires in Victoria has been crowned this morning by a moving heart-warming event at Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne.  With Ian Henderson of ABC Melbourne TV as the dignified MC, the service proceeded faultlessly through music, song, speech, vision and touching gesture to a final poignant address by our PM, the singing of We Are Australian led by singer Bruce Woodley, and the song Touch led by Michael Paynter, which invited everyone to reach out to those in need.  Everyone did.

The event was brilliantly organized and superbly choreographed, everyone who spoke did so from the heart; no one was forgotten.  It was an event that any who witnessed it will never forget.

Politics were set aside; no doubt with the resumption of Federal Parliament tomorrow, hostilities will resume.  Pity.