LYN'S DAILY LINKS are to posts of interest to the contemporary political debate. They are updated daily.
For past months of LYN'S DAILY LINKS go to the Page List in the left panel.
3 September 2013
To succeed, PM Abbott must disappoint us all
Interest rates traction is slipping and any economic narrative that does not support the changed consumer will fall on deaf ears. If PM Abbott cuts spending too hard the consumer will bunker and any tax cuts will go to waste,
What does Tony's 'stronger economy' look like?
One of Abbott’s pledges during the campaign is to “make the economy stronger”.At no stage has he articulated what that means, nor has he been asked in the plethora of interviews he has given what the characteristics of that "stronger economy” are.
Hockey Finally Comes Clean: Coalition Won't Release Costings After All
Mr Hockey was very precise in his language this morning, saying:“We are still announcing policies and when we have finished announcing policies, we will release the consolidated balance sheet."This confirms that the Coalition will continue to hide the details of their costings until the election and beyond.
Why taxes would rise under Abbott
Election campaigns have become works of fantasy where, to enter the spirit of things, you have to suspend disbelief. And the greatest unreality this time is Tony Abbott's claim the budget can be returned to surplus in the coming decade while taxes go down, not up.
Households better off since GFC
The strongest contributors to the household budget are food, transport and housing. In 2013, food and transport both contribute around 17% of all expenditure. Housing (rent, mortgage, rates and other housing costs) make up around 15%. Abbott would have us believe we are all worse off under Labor. On average he is wrong
Who really saved Australia from the GFC?
by Crispin Hull
How can we explain how so many voters vote against a party that would uphold their interests in favour of a party that would favour business and the wealthy?The explanation lies in propaganda.Nothing like a series of brash, egregious portrayals of Labor and its leadership as bungling Nazis, plunderers, nincompoops, or an edict to “kick this mob out” pushed in the tabloids
Election 2013- Day 29 (or, build a bridge and not get over it)
Abbott was on the 7:30 Report. He did alright. Leigh Sales skewered him pretty nicely when she asked him to “unpack” his statements about the “baddies against the baddies”. He couldn’t name any other group, let alone any other “baddie” than AL Qaeda when asked to explain his statement. He did a fair bit of fumbling and umming and it was abundantly clear he hadn’t even
More of the Same
By Gary Sauer-Thompson
Barry Jones has highlighted how the quality of political debate appears to have become increasingly unsophisticated, appealing to the lowest common denominator of understanding and the role of the media: The Murdoch papers are no longer reporting the news, but shaping it. They no longer claim objectivity but have become players, powerful advocates on policy issues
Coalition's Direct Action funding won't rise if 5% emissions target not met
by Lenore Taylor
The Coalition will not increase funding for its “Direct Action” even if the climate policy fails to deliver Australia’s promised greenhouse gas reductions, an outcome several attempts to model the plan have indicated is very likely.
11 Seats to Watch
The purpose of this post to be a handy little primer – which seats are you likely to hear about, who are the players, why is it interesting, and what’s probably going to happen
Labor pledges to raise asset write-off threshold to $10,000
By Patrick Stafford
The announcement caps what has been a lucrative campaign for small businesses, with both sides of politics announcing tax and budget policies which cater to the small end of town.The pledge also counteracts the Coalition’s announcement it will scrap the increased write-off threshold if it wins government.
Drone plan shot down in Coalition defence policy launch
The Coalition has abandoned a long-standing promise to buy long-range unmanned surveillance drones it once said were essential for watching over Australia's vast lands and seas.the opposition leader, Tony Abbott, said decisions on buying complex technical equipment could not be made from opposition.
Will Abbott hand power to multinationals?
The TPP could be agreed before most Australians even realize what is happening. Investor-state dispute settlement represents an attack on national sovereignty and on the very heart of democracy, at a time when we need accountable government more than ever. We should be decarbonizing the Australian and global economy as rapidly as possible to prevent
Baddies and Worsies
by Bob Ellis
Galaxy has Abbott on 38 as preferred Prime Minister, Rudd on 45. Newspoll has Abbott on 43, Rudd on 41. Morgan, distributing Palmer preferences as Clive directs, claims Rudd will lose his seat. Galaxy has him on 57.
Tony Abbott’s extreme agenda
by @SimonCopland @AusVotes2013
His direct action plan could therefore be described as one that directly takes money out of the technologies that are the solutions to the problem, whilst keeping money into the causes of the problem. These sorts of cuts will have a huge impact on the renewable energy industry, yet the ALP has hardly touched them.
An Open Letter to Fairfax Media Limited
by Dan Rowden
Australia has been confronted for too long with the jaundiced jabbering of pseudo-journalists of the Gemma Jones ilk, who would be far more appropriately assigned to writing gossip columns. Mind you, the difference between that and what is presently being offered as news is one measured in yoctometres
News Corp.’s Tight Grip on Australia’s Papers Shapes Its Politics
by New York Times
One of the Labor government’s plans calls for a National Broadband Network that would deliver high-speed Internet access to wide swathes of the country, a service that would broadly compete with News Corporation’s subscription TV service, Foxtel, which remains the company’s most profitable Australian venture.
Some reasons to vote Labor on September 7th.
A particularly appropriate summation of what the ALP has already done and looks likely to continue with, compared to what can be extracted from the Liberal-National Party.
Coalition climate figures don’t add up
A$7.5 billion with these measures significantly overstates the practical reality, primarily because of the misclassification of A$4.5 billion under the Jobs and Competitiveness Program and energy market compensation measures. A more accurate figure for the total cash saved by this set of measures is more like $3 billion – nowhere close to the loss of A$9.7 billion in revenue from abolishing the price on carbon.
I’ve raised the white flag
But when they wake up, it will be easier for us to work together to remove Tony Abbott in 2016 than it has been keeping him out of office in 2013.
So much for Abbott's 'real solutions' unity ticket
Open warfare has broken out between the Liberal and the National parties with New South Wales National senator Fiona Nash joining her party leader, Warren Truss, in attacking the Liberal shadow treasurer, Joe Hockey, for being “disconnected” from regional Australia
Liberals double ad spend as polling day nears
by Rosie Baker
The liberal party doubled its ad spend last week, spending $1.6m on advertising over the seven days to 28 August – more than it spent in the previous three weeks of the campaign combined, according to figures released by Ebiquity. The party has spent a total of $3.1m on ads during the campaign season.
Quarterly Essay 43, Bad News: Murdoch’s Australian and the Shaping of the Nation
by Robert Manne
Since 2002, under the editorship of Chris Mitchell, the Australian has come to see itself as judge, jury and would-be executioner of leaders and policies. Is this a dangerous case of power without responsibility?
What Will He Cut Near You
by Australian Labor
Who will pay for Tony Abbott's cuts? Families, parents, teachers, nurses, low income workers, pensioners - are you on the chopping block?
NBN: Fibre-on-Demand, at best $7,500/premises, more like $45,000/premises
Peter Martin tweeted that the ALP's claim of $5,000 to connect Fibre-on-Demand was "Mostly False".I disagree and tweeted a short calculation. I find it surprising that the ALP has never made this argument:
Today’s Front Pages
Australian Newspaper Front Pages for 3 September 2013
2 September 2013
Is Abbott Sending Holy Smoke Signals?
One gets the feeling there is still much – apart from his policy costings – which Abbott is hiding. And one might wonder whether, once he has won the election, things will be revealed which will surprise the rationalist right of his own party.
Syria conflict 'baddies vs baddies': Abbott
It is not goodies versus baddies, it is baddies versus baddies and that is why it is very important that we don't make a very difficult situation worse," Abbott told ABC television Sunday morning.
Rudd launch swings focus back to jobs and training
by Bernard Keane
The centerpiece of Rudd’s pitch was an extension of small business tax deductions to $10,000, costing $200 million over four years - the only fiscal commitment of substance from the launch.
Rudd also threatened to direct TAFE funding directly to institutions in the face of state government funding cuts,
Kevin Rudd threatens states with Tafe funding bypass
At the Labor campaign launch on Sunday, Kevin Rudd said Labor had achieved significant reforms in other areas of education but Tafes were “withering on the vine” due to state government cuts.He told states that if they did not meet the the commonwealth’s funding requirements by July 2014, a Labor government would move to fund Tafes directly.
Coaliton's full costings will not be released until final days of campaign
"I don't believe the additional savings to be announced later this week will impact on ordinary Australians and I want to give people this absolute assurance, no cuts to education, no cuts to health, no changes to pensions and no changes to the GST," Abbott said.
Labor’s measures to increase apprenticeships, local content will boost economy and help workers
The plan to require 10 per cent of work by apprentices, trainees or cadets on federal-government funded construction contracts worth more than $5 million would create many new training opportunities and ensure a steady supply of skilled workers into the economy.
Syria Conflict ‘Baddies vs. Baddies’: Abbott
by Tony Abbott, currently on track to win Australia’s September 7 elections over center-left Labor incumbent Kevin Rudd, described the conflict in Syria as a civil war “between two pretty unsavory sides.”It is not goodies versus baddies, it is baddies versus baddies and that is why it is very important that we don’t make a very difficult situation worse,” Abbott told ABC
The Editorial From Limited News Telegraph – before editting.
He has identified his own weaknesses and sought to eliminate anyone who mentions them; he has reached out to working women, for example, like no political leader in recent history, calling them “feisty” and “sexy” and suggesting that they should move a bit close. The Sunday Telegraph believes Mr Abbott is ready to lead Australia.
Claims emerge of opinion poll rigging
The Murdoch owned The Australian’s online edition quoted Mr Palmer as saying: ”When I was a former party director there were polling companies that I used to give large donations to and they’d write the results for them [polls],” he said. This quote is not accurate. A transcript shows Mr Palmer was interrupted and The Australian’s journalist completed his remark for him.
Stop the Murdoch media
This site and its authors, as you’ll no doubt be aware, despise Rupert Murdoch and in particular his blatant efforts in using his Australian newspapers to manipulate public discourse. All designed, obviously, to deliver the government of his choice. He has gone on record as declaring he enjoys influencing people. That’s what he wants his newspapers to do.
Election 2013: The final countdown
by Eddy Jokovich
These front-page interventions by News Limited, through their Liberal Party megaphones, The Courier Mail, Daily Telegraph and The Australian have been truely bizzare and, if you removed their respective mastheads, could easily double up as a Honi Soit covers controlled by the Sydney University Young Liberals.
Donate to stop the Murdoch media!
Since day one of the election Murdoch’s papers have launched a one-sided campaign, dangerously and intentionally blurring the lines between editorial and reporting content. Front-pages depicting the Prime Minister as a Nazi TV character have in essence turned the papers into Australia’s most widespread political advertisements.
Rupert Murdoch, News Corp.:
by change org
We want fair, 50-50 balanced reporting. Facts and no bias. Petition by Stop Media Bias in Australia.
The Daily Telegraph Is A Bad Newspaper, Of Course
One good thing emerges from this mealy-mouthed propaganda. The sheer audacity of The Telegraph’s personality cult campaign has ignited a discussion on media regulation and ownership amongst people who tend not to think critically about such things. There’s a wizened bastion of old leftists who are as we speak dismissing
Fear Of The Known
Somebody help us out here. We’re about to vote in the party of the property bubble again. And they haven’t learnt their lessons at all. They’re coming at us with the same rhetoric they came at us in the first place. If it’s the personal failing of Tony Abbott, that’s one thing but it’s not – the whole lot of the front-benchers are trotting out this bunkum.
Western Decay – The Liberals Woeful candidates in Sydney’s West
caller on ABC Radio described what she witnessed when she attended the candidates debate. The caller said that the answers to questions being asked were being texted to Fiona by a Liberal Party organiser. How does she know this? She was apparently sitting next to the organiser watching them type up and send the answers to Fiona.
Voting below-the-line made easy
If you don’t like your chosen group’s preferences, you can instead vote “below the line”. A helpful website is Below the Line, which presents all the group voting tickets in an easy-to-read format and allows you to prepare your own ballot to use on election day. Here’s how it works
5 days, 6 hours until we vote – are you still undecided?
I have concerns about, every aspect of the Liberal party worries me – natural justice, industrial relations, economic management, protection of our least advantaged, investment in the future, capacity for long-term and big picture thinking, integrity, and trustworthiness. And on the matters of asylum seekers and the environment? However far Labor have fallen short of ideal, they beat the Liberal party by a country mile.
The Ashbygate Theatre: Changing the script
We understand why you’d like to see more hard evidence regarding some of the points raised in the Ashbygate Trust articles. We ask for your patience here as publishing detailed evidence now could compromise our efforts. We go to great pains to ensure our facts are right before publishing. But there will be more to come over the next few days. Keep watching this space.
Refugee Boats; The Timeline – Updated to September 1st
This list is based on what is being reported in the MSM and what I can find from a couple of specialist sites. This is to give a layman’s impression of what is going on and may say more about the MSM than the facts. One day soon, I shall ask the relevant Government Departments for authoritative information.
The Carbon Tax Battle
Tony's great skill is to attack his opponents on his own weak points. If he's been caught lying, he will talk about nothing else other than the PM's lies for a week. Projection, triangulation, call it what you will, but it has been very effective
"NBN Lite" won't happen, but has served its purpose: took the NBN off the Election agenda
To win the NBN Debate, Turnbull, the Earl of Wentworth, only needed to convince the media that he had an NBN Plan that was acceptable to the great unwashed and was roughly the same as the Real NBN.To support this, he had to cast serious doubt on the NBN Co budget and ability to execute, and to confuse/conflate the critical questions so media never asked them
Coaltion NBN Policy – Post Election
In true LNP tradition, I suspect that the first thing they will do is hand the money to Telstra. Just grab $30b of public debt, hand it to Telstra & say “build wireless”. It’s not an earth shattering revelation, Hockey made it clear he thinks wireless is the future, the Young Libs have been spreading FUD on social media about fibre being outdated by wireless “in 2 years”.
Today’s Front Pages
Australian Newspaper Front Pages for 2 September 2013
31 August 2013
The power of the Murdoch media to manipulate
by Alan Austin, @OnLineOpinion
How do they manipulate their readers? With six strategies, 1st. They repeat impressive-sounding propositions which they do not bolster with evidence, 2nd. They ignore global context. 3rd. They deny the global financial crisis impacted Australia. 4th. The sneaky rhetorical question which also avoids actual fibs. 5th. They make things up. 6th. If you can't say something destructive about Labor, don't say anything.
A vote against the media
People are voting against the media because they are not providing the information that people need to make a decision. In a democracy it is people who make the decision, not pollsters or journalists or other dingbats like them. The metrics that slow media uses to measure consumption - clickthroughs and guesstimate multiples of how many see a bought newspaper or
Election IOU: how will Rupert call in Abbott’s debt to him?
by Bernard Keane and Glenn Dyer
The key to control of Foxtel is getting Telstra out. Telstra doesn’t need the cash — it has billions coming in from the NBN (although Telstra might baulk at further deals with “copper magic”). But if an Abbott government were to do a deal on the NBN with Telstra in exchange for getting it out of Foxtel, all in the name of freeing up competition, then News would be very happy
Lucky no more
by The Economist
The choice between a man with a defective manifesto and one with a defective personality is not appealing—but Mr Rudd gets our vote, largely because of Labor’s decent record. With deficits approaching, his numbers look more likely to add up than Mr Abbott’s. Despite his high-handed style, Mr Rudd is a Blairite centrist. A strategic thinker
Election guide: what you need to know about the parties' education policies
The Coalition has also put itself in a curious position – it says it will make schools better but in the same breath it says the federal government should have little or nothing to do with providing education. Constitutionally this is correct – states do bare most of the direct responsibility for the provision of education – but this also conveniently ignores
Have low income earners been ‘punished’ by changes to the private health insurance rebate? > Check the facts
they’ve been punished by a lot of changes that Labor has made.” Shadow Treasurer, Joe Hockey. The finding: Low income earners are unaffected by the changes to the PHI rebate and the Medicare Levy Surcharge
Bob Ellis: Inside Newspoll
Newspoll has been underestimating the Labor vote, and the Labor preferred vote, for years now, from when mobiles started taking over the market. And Newspoll could have been underestimating it, if required by its owner Murdoch, even more; as it did last year when it had Romney always ahead, or competitive.
Fraud versus fraud in fiscal fog
The election has now descended fully into a fiscal fog. There is no way to gauge whether Coalition costings represent an increase or decrease in fiscal drag given their accrual basis, double-counting and refusal to just give us plain and simple cash numbers from a publicly recognised source. And this morning Labor’s attempt to punch a hole in the fog is itself exposed as fraudulent
Direct Action - could it be a $35b budget blowout?
by Tristan Edis
Analysis by Monash University and engineering and energy consulting firm Sinclair Knight Merz conservatively estimated that the Coalition would blow out its budget by $4 billion to meet its commitment to reduce emissions by 5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020.Reputex’s analysis finds the budget blowout would be more like $35 billion.
“If Tony Abbott wins, it will kill me”
Tony Abbott is playing with the life and death of real people, these are not just a means to balance the budget, it’s not just about numbers in an economic report, these are real people.
Literally doesn’t mean literally anymore, and the Conservatives have been Radicals since the 80s.
They levy Big Business (“It’s a levy, we don’t tax”) and unlike the Carbon Tax, there’s no mention of this being passed on to consumers, and give people a benefit based on what they were earning. We’re told that this is only fair. After all, sick leave and holiday pay are based on the person’s income
To Gonski or not to Gonski. That is the Question
Why did Tony Abbott not say to the Liberal Premiers“Support Gonski education reforms because it is the right thing to do.”The only conclusion you can draw is that he would modify the Gonski education reforms if elected through subtle cutbacks. He is already hedging his bets by saying he would only guarantee four years, not six.
Spin the Voter Propaganda Wheel: Power & Persuasion
Spin the wheel and select your preferred technique.Pick your favourite real life example from Australian (or other countries’) politics and/or election campaigning to match it.
LEMONs Liberals Endless Mantra Of NO
Abbott’s Climate Policy would cost VASTLY more than budgeted, Abbott to axe jobs within weeks, Abbott abandons promise on surplus, Abbott’s Candidates hide from questioning, Abbott double backflips on Medicare Locals (again, Abbott WILL ‘bring back WorkChoices‘
NBN: Despite News Ltd, Turnbull WILL kill NBN, if he wants.
Turnbull is not on record anywhere as giving a firm commitment to completing an NBN. You might think he's said that, but he and the Coalition have crafted their words very carefully. In the letter to the MHR, Turnbull fails to make this simple statement, one which would've taken no effort and an issue he would've been acutely aware of when crafting his long-delayed response.
How Fact Check Websites Got It Wrong On NBN Connection Fees
It’s quite clear there that the connection to the network is free. So why are all the fact checkers getting it so wrong? Quite simple really: they don’t understand the difference between subscriber fees, connection charges, & activation charges
Today’s Front Pages
Australian Newspaper Front Pages for 31 August 2013