Who will Newspoll kill off next?

During this week past we saw Newspoll: The Killing Machine in lethal action. Ironically, it was her own party members who took the ammunition from Newspoll, aimed it at Julia Gillard’s heart, and killed her politically. Although polls are no more than a snapshot of public opinion, they have again become the determiner of the fate of a political leader. They are killing machines.

Politicians are obsessed with polls, place blind faith in their capacity to predict election results although they have no predictive value three months from an election, and have once more used them to make decisions about who is best equipped to lead them to victory. Writing in The Hoopla, Gabrielle Chan says: “It was the polls that fed the Rudd monster – the same polls that slew the beast in the beginning.

How have we got to where we are? As this is a multilayered issue, let’s peel back the layers and take a look at what’s underneath.

For a long while now, Newspoll, and indeed most of the other polls of voting preference and personal approval, have carried importance they do not deserve. Pollster Peter Lewis of Essential Vision tells us: "A poll never predicts the future. Anyone who says they know what the future holds is deluded". Aggregated polls that show trends are more useful though.

The polls have been adverse for Labor and Julia Gillard for a long while; they did not arrive out of a clear blue sky. They began falling when the Rudd saboteurs, bridling at the memory of Rudd’s abrupt and savage removal because of falling polls three years ago, began undermining the newly appointed leader, Julia Gillard. They derailed her 2010 election campaign at its very outset when they leaked damning information to Laurie Oakes who confronted her with it at the end of a National Press Club speech. The polls that began promisingly for her and Labor immediately after she became PM fell, and continued to fall. This result was a hung parliament and a minority government.

Because through most of the life of the Gillard Government the polls have been persistently unfavourable for her and Labor, their importance has been unreasonably amplified. Despite the doubts professional pollsters have expressed about the validity and reliability of opinion polls, media commentators have used them over and again to predict electoral disaster for Labor – a ‘wipeout’ that would reduce Labor to a ‘rump’. Politicians believed them. Labor has been dismayed and depressed for many months. Convinced that the commentators were right, Labor parliamentarians have agonized for a long while about what to do. The Rudd saboteurs became more and more determined to strike when the time was right to reinstate their man, whom they believed would give Labor a better chance.

As more and more Labor politicians became convinced that they must act to counter this existential threat, they reached a conclusion that the action needed was a change of leader, because no matter what else they had tried, the polls remained poor. Their apprehension got the better of them last Wednesday. Precipitated by a mysterious petition circulating among members, they used poor polling to insist on a Caucus meeting and thereby to remove their leader, Julia Gillard, believing the alternative, Kevin Rudd, would lift their rating.

The validity of that decision seemed to be borne out almost immediately by a Morgan Poll taken the evening of the change of leader. Gary Morgan documents it thus: Big swing to the ALP after Rudd returned as leader tonight. ALP 49.5% (up 5%) cf. L-NP 50.5% (down 5%) – but will it be enough? This special snap poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the evening of June 26, 2013 via SMS interviewing after the result of the ALP leadership ballot was announced at 8 pm, among an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,530 Australian electors aged 18+, where of all electors surveyed a low 0.5% did not name a party. A national ReachTEL poll last Thursday, and a subsequent poll of selected seats in Sydney and Melbourne, and this morning’s Galaxy Poll showed a similar boost to the Labor vote.

Commenting on ABC 24 about the Morgan Poll, John Stirton, Research Director of Nielsen Polls, when asked whether polls were dictating who should be leader of our nation, answered that regrettably that seemed to be the case. They did so three years ago in the case of Kevin Rudd, and last week it was Julia Gillard. Stirton expressed the hope that this will not be the case in future. Even pollsters admit that this is a misuse of polls. He estimated that Labor could improve by up to ten points in primary votes with the change to Kevin Rudd, but questioned how long this would last. He felt that it might taper off near the election date, no matter when this was.

So here’s the rub: no matter how many warnings professional pollsters have given about the danger of using polls for decision making because of their lack of predictive power, media commentators have ignored the warnings and have used them to make predictions day after day, month after month. Politicians have lapped up what they have said and have used their predictions to make some of the most drastic decisions imaginable, such as changing leaders. It amazes me that seasoned politicians have allowed themselves to be captured so profoundly by the polls and their media spruikers. Then again, they may have been aware that they have been swept along by all the hype that polls spawn, but were fearful that as bad polls create more bad polls and generate a bandwagon effect, a self-perpetuating prophesy, voters might have become convinced that Labor had no hope and that they ought to back what the polls are indicating is the hot favourite, the Coalition.

But there’s more to this multilayered issue. Why have the polls, which have precipitated this crisis, been so consistently poor for Labor and Julia Gillard? The answer hides beneath another layer. Let’s peel it back.

As soon as Julia Gillard became Prime Minister, a concerted campaign began to demonize her. Built on what Opposition Leader Tony Abbott labeled a ‘lie’, and a ‘broken promise’ when she introduced a price on carbon despite her ‘no carbon tax’ pledge, shock jock Alan Jones coined ‘Ju-liar’, said she should be put in a hessian bag and dumped at sea, and arranged ‘carbon tax rallies’ that featured ‘Ditch the Witch’ and ‘Bob Brown’s Bitch’ banners in front of which Tony Abbott stood with two female colleagues. This was just the start of the demonization. The Fourth Estate took up the theme and inflamed it day after day, month after month, year after year. The Murdoch media was particularly venomous, intent on using the demonization of the PM to derail her Government and the Labor Party. I will not tire you with more details; you know them well. This was the genesis of PM Gillard’s unpopularity and the poor showing of Labor in the polls. If the media continually berates a leader, criticizes virtually everything she does, paints over and again a picture of her as an incompetent liar, in classic Goebbels fashion the people eventually believe it. When that picture is reinforced by Tony Abbott at every Question Time, at every parliamentary doorstop, at every visit to a factory or a shopping mall, when he repeatedly damages her credibility by insisting her Government is illegitimate, it become the given truth for most of the populace.

Given that after years of demonizing our first female PM, who has been categorized as a lying, incompetent witch, one warranting hate and loathing, it ought not be surprising that her standing in the community is poor, that her disapproval is so much higher than her approval ratings. A Salem witch trial of Julia Gillard has been going on for ages in the minds of many voters, and they have judged her guilty. Listen to the vox pops! Tony Abbott and his Fourth Estate sycophants have been spectacularly successful in prosecuting the trial of this ‘Canberra witch’.

There is another media issue, the old chestnut of Julia Gillard being unable ‘cut through’, to get her message across, to let people know what she ‘stands for’. Pundits ask why she is not ‘resonating with the community’. It is incredible to me that over and again media personalities repeat these accusations when it is the media itself that is largely responsible for this state of affairs. If there are parallel events, one about a major reform the Government has legislated, and the other about a trivial issue, it is the trivial that wins out every time. The media castigates her for being a poor communicator, of failing to tell the people the good things her Government is doing, and then steadfastly refuses to give these things any prominence. It is her glasses, or her hair, or her jackets, or her tripping over, or her photo in Women’s Weekly that gets on the front page, while details of vital reforms, or the great economic state of our nation, are relegated to page seven. Yet the media has the temerity to criticize her inability to ‘cut through’. What hypocrisy! Or perhaps it is simply blindness to its own role. Maybe though it is deliberate media disingenuousness.

I can hear some of you saying: here he is blaming the media again. You are right. I am blaming the media because they are manifestly blameworthy. Only someone blind to what is going on could conclude otherwise. But this is not to say that PM Gillard and her Government are blameless. Moves have been made that have not turned out well; judgments have not been universally correct; ideas have not always been brilliant. That ought not surprise us given the complexity of governing in a minority parliament. Yet it is one in which around six hundred pieces of legislation have been passed with 87% bipartisan support, leaving just 13% in dispute; where major reforms have been enacted in education, health and disability, communications, infrastructure, water, defence, industrial relations and paid maternity leave, and important advances have been made in international relations, all with the oversight of PM Gillard. Yet she is portrayed as an incompetent Canberra witch.

There is another aspect – the gender issue. I do not intend to labour this here. It is well documented in the writings of Anne Summers, author of The Misogyny Factor, and writers on The Hoopla such as Gabrielle Chan. There is no doubt that being a female has made political life much harder for Julia Gillard. It seems that many men in this country cannot abide a female PM; they are unable to adjust to a female being in charge, when it has always been a male. It’s a man’s world after all!

So it is in the deepest recesses of this multi-layered issue that the core cause of the poor polling lives and festers – a virulent and persistent media onslaught against our first female PM the like of which we have not seen before, which has led to a level of demonization and deprecation once reserved for the Salem witches.

To recap, beginning from the core of the issue, the layers are: denigration and demonization of PM Gillard, leading to the creation of a damaging image of her in the minds of the electorate, leading to poor polling, leading to a media prediction that electoral disaster lies ahead with Julia Gillard as PM, leading to this prediction being embraced by Labor parliamentarians, leading to the radical action of removing Australia’s first female PM and replacing her with what the polls say is an electorally popular male.

This is the rationale behind the move to replace her, but the modus operandi of the Rudd saboteurs has been both destructive and despicable. For Labor members to deliberately and surreptitiously undermine a Labor Government and its leader over a three year period, and to sometimes publically ridicule her, is unforgivable disloyalty. I’m thinking of the smirking Joel Fitzgibbon, and the blustering Kim Carr and Doug Cameron. And then to follow this with attempt after attempt to dislodge PM Gillard, at first abortive, and finally successful, is contemptible. It is distressing that this level of treachery has been rewarded. I deplore these actions and hope I will never see such subversion, disloyalty and destructiveness again.

Those of us who have supported Julia Gillard so fervently are appalled at the way she has been treated, and lament her fate. We have lost an outstanding politician, and a strong and steadfast female warrior. We commiserate her untimely exit from public life and hope she will reappear in another influential role that will engage her outstanding talent and her strength of character. We shall miss her bubbling personality, her strength, her courage, her resoluteness, her devotion, her graciousness, her capacity to get things done against the odds and bring about much needed traditional Labor reforms, and her determination to stand up for women’s rights.


Let’s return now to the subject of this piece: Who will Newspoll kill off next? If polls have destroyed two Federal leaderships in the last three years, is that where the destruction will stop? Who else might Newspoll kill?

This piece postulates that other Federal leaders are vulnerable. What if the polls reverse after Rudd’s installation, and Labor stocks rise or even surpass that of the Coalition? With time running down to the election, how will Coalition members feel about their leader, Tony Abbott? Will they continue to believe that he can deliver them victory? What happens as his popularity slips and falls below that of Rudd as preferred prime minister? He has been unpopular with the voters for three years now with his unpopularity exceeding his popularity, although lately his popularity had picked up a little. But what if that now worsens? There are other leaders in the wings, most notably Malcolm Turnbull, who consistently has been more popular than Abbott, and recently preferred by twice as many voters as Abbott. When would Coalition members, like their Labor counterparts, feel they ought to ditch Abbott for Turnbull? It would be a big reversal of their loyalty to Abbott, but if such reversal can occur in Labor circles, why not in the Coalition?

The recent poll results will already be creating uncertainty and doubt in Coalition minds. Minders will be reviewing Abbott’s messages, perhaps asking whether the three word slogans will do during the election campaign. Abbott will be re-groomed, given some new words he can repeat from memory, words that are memorable, although meaningless because of their lack of specificity. Minders will fret about how Abbott will manage in a vigorous debate with Rudd on serious policy issues, a debate Rudd has already invited on economic issues. Rudd has panache that Abbott lacks, as well as policy smarts, which Abbott doesn’t enjoy. Because Abbott has avoided solid policy work, preferring mantras that he repeats like a Buddhist monk, policy debates promise to be a big problem for him and the Coalition. Close observers have recognized for ages his policy paucity as a major vulnerability; now it threatens to be exposed for all to see, for voters to see his vacuity. How long would it take for the electorate to have their eyes opened, and their approval of him plummet?

As last week came to an end, while Kevin Rudd was in full flight at a media conference on Friday, answering dozens of questions from a rowdy bunch of journalists, Coalition minders were scrambling to prepare a response to the emergence of another Rudd Prime Ministership. Tony Abbott, Julie Bishop and Warren Truss were sent out to recite disparaging statements about Rudd, all intended for the airwaves. They sounded pathetic. How much impact such negative stuff will have, especially when Rudd is now enjoying positive acceptance from much of the electorate, is debatable.

I can see a wave of panic spreading across the Coalition camp as they realize that they are now in for a close contest at the election and a challenging combatant to cope with beforehand. I can see Tony Abbott and his minders wondering how to deal with a resurgent Kevin Rudd, how to counter his newly-won popularity, how to respond to his exuberant rhetoric, and with a deep feeling of apprehension, how to match him in a policy debate.

I can imagine the sinking feeling that will oppress their souls as they look at each new poll, and most of all, the giant killer Newspoll, to see how they are faring.

I can see the Honourable Leader of her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, Anthony John Abbott, with his hands eagerly outstretched to grasp the coveted keys to The Lodge, fearfully wondering if he will see his long-held dream evaporate, wondering if HE will be the one that Newspoll will kill off next.


What do you think?

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Ad astra

30/06/2013Folks This piece is a sequel to the previous one [i]Newspoll: The Killing Machine[/i], which piece was written before the extraordinary events of last week. [i]Newspoll[/i] indeed proved to be a killing machine and our beloved Julia was the victim. This piece attempts to dissect the various layers of the multi-layered process we saw played out last week. A simple explanation will not do. There are many layers, many players, many factors, many steps. Their confluence over time resulted in the loss of an outstanding leader and an astute politician from public life. To isolate one aspect for comment would not do justice to the complexity of this event. I have drawn on the comments of many bloggers here, and have woven them into a composite picture, which I trust will make logical sense, and a coherent explanation. Because I have a family event later this afternoon, I have posted this piece a little earlier than normally I do. I look forward to reading your responses when I return.

DoodlePoodle

30/06/2013Only last Tuesday a social group that I belong to were making much of the "knitting" photos. I really despaired as those all around me seemed to have adopted the herd mentality. It will be interesting to see how this same group respond to the sudden change in the polls.

janice

30/06/2013Dunno what happened on the last thread - I posted a comment and was told it couldn't be posted. Next thing I see it not only posted once but three times! So, I'll post it again here - once only I hope.... For me, the best possible outcome now is for Labor to win the election and the termite lose his seat. Justice served.

tex

30/06/2013I see the most important aspect of this whole saga is that journalists will not be held to account for their lowly behaviour. I believe journalists now employed by the news agencies have trashed their occupation to such a low level that when I watch television or read a political comment I simply say to myself why should I believe anything that this mob say. And put them in those terms as no one could speak of them as a profession because that term could not be used to describe some of the sycophantic behaviour of the likes of Uhlman, Latica Bourke,plus a truck load of parliamentary accredited journalists under the banner of the ABC some that have marital relationships with Murdoch scribes. And then we are subjected to IPA commentators with access to the air waves of the ABC plus News Ltd employees getting access spread their vile thoughts. So I will observe and revile these creatures that are given access to our political discussion. So when their demise happens it will be with joy in my household that they have got what they deserve.

Gravel

30/06/2013Ad Astra It is hard to accept what has just happened and then to see the 'polls' seemingly coming good for Labor. How long that will last we will see. I have lost all emotional feelings for politics now. I have become totally indifferent to the rubbish being expounded by the media. Julia will be for me the best ever Prime Minister Australia has ever had. She leaves a wonderful legacy for all Australians and I think that legacy will be remembered with a lot of awe and gratitude. DoodlePoodle's remark shows that we no longer look at policy, it is all personality and who can be the nastiest. It is like living in one of those horrible reality shows, with no way of getting out of it. Janice Like you, that would be a scenario I would relish, but who then to lead Labor? We have lost almost the best of the best whom have retired in the last couple of days.

N'ellie May

30/06/2013Hi Ad, Thank you for your great analysis. I do agree with what you have tracked through. However, I think you have not found the starting position for what lead to the hatred that was whipped up. The blame for that I believe lays squarely on the actions and behaviour of Kevin Rudd, who destroyed the 2010 election campaign through his sabotage of Ms Gillard. He constantly leaked to the press and don't forget the Laurie Oakes confrontation at the Press Club address where he came forth with such damaging accusations, obviously supplied by Rudd. I agree with Mark Latham - Rudd is a terrorist, whose main concern is for himself. The hatred and vitriol didn't begin after the 2010 election, it began within days of Rudd losing the leadership. I am finding it extremely hard to move on from this. I am a member of the Labor Party and have supported them since my first vote in 1972. I am so crushed by the behaviour of the Labor Party that I can't forgive them. Sure enough, PM Gillard had to battle all the other nasties out there, I realise that. However, I am equally sure she would have had an entirely different path if Rudd had accepted his party's decision in 2010 and moved on. He'll never be the PM that she has been. So I can't, iin all honesty, bring myself to ever look at Australian politicians in the same light again. I cannot go forth and support them because my heart is broken and I cannot be a hypocrite and vote for Rudd. What a dilemma!

42 long

30/06/2013A sorry situation indeed but WHO do you think Julia Gillard would want you to vote for Nellie? We need to value truth more than we do and hope the ethics will change. Until that happens we have what we have, and must work with it. In time, enough will be written about this. The real problem is the influence of the King makers or should I say Lackey installers? Then we have the paid deniers of climate who would help the powerful to ruin the world by focussing on money for the powerful to the detriment of the only world we know. There is no shortage of injustice and corruption in the world. We have seen plenty of it lately near to us.

Gordonwa

30/06/2013Has anyone else noticed that Tom of wherever, Capstan and Sir Ian Crisp always seem to post in close proximity to each other? Perhaps they are all the same person.

Gordonwa

30/06/2013Oh dear, my harmless observation seems to have touched a raw nerve. My sincerest apologies Ad, I broke my own rule to never feed the trolls. I won't do it again as I respect your site immensely.

jane

30/06/2013Ad astra, another fine post. It will indeed be interesting to see whether the msm will now target Rudd for destruction. Will they go the same familiar route that they did with Gillard? I doubt they'll be able to do that, because Gillard is loyal, lacking in spite & hubris, & would not actively work with grubs such as Liealot, PorkyPyne, Hockey etc to bring down his government. I will never forgive Rudd & his Rats for their disloyalty and destructiveness. But sadly, even having the treacherous Rat as PM is better than Liealot & that bunch of second hand Howard losers in government. However, it will be just as interesting if the polls continue to be unfavourable to Liealot & the Liars Party. Will it lead to his removal for another LOTO? I don't believe they'll recycle Turnbull; I doubt he has any support despite him shedding his principles to appeal to the red necks. But there is so little depth of talent anywhere in the Liars Party, they may have to stick with the turkey they currently have. Does anyone honestly believe there is ANYONE at all on the shadow front bench who wouldn't be a joke on the world stage? Me either. Rudd will be a better front man than any of them, but he won't surpass Julia on any front except treachery, vindictiveness & spite.

42 long

30/06/2013A good summary Jane.

Ad astra

30/06/2013tex If you haven’t been here before, welcome to [i]The Political Sword[/i] family, and thank you for your comment, with which I agree. Many would feel like you when you say: “[i]I believe journalists now employed by the news agencies have trashed their occupation to such a low level that when I watch television or read a political comment I simply say to myself why should I believe anything that this mob say.[/i]” DoodlePoodle That is a telling story, confirmation of how the media has brainwashed the public about Julia Gillard. janice I can’t explain what happened on the last piece; perhaps it got too long with well over 500 comments. Let’s see how we go on the new one. I agree with your words: “[i]For me, the best possible outcome now is for Labor to win the election and the termite lose his seat. Justice served.”[/i] Gravel Who knows how long the change to the polls will last. It is now up to Kevin Rudd to keep the pressure on Slogan-Abbott, who has had almost no scrutiny so far, and expose his vacuity. N’ellie May Thank you for you complimentary remarks. I believe I have identified where the problem began as expressed in this paragraph: “[i]The polls have been adverse for Labor and Julia Gillard for a long while; they did not arrive out of a clear blue sky. They began falling when the Rudd saboteurs, bridling at the memory of Rudd’s abrupt and savage removal because of falling polls three years ago, began undermining the newly appointed leader, Julia Gillard. They derailed her 2010 election campaign at its very outset when they leaked damning information to Laurie Oakes who confronted her with it at the end of a National Press Club speech. The polls that began promisingly for her and Labor immediately after she became PM fell and continued to fall. This result was a hung parliament and a minority government.”[/i] The Rudd sabotage continued almost uninterruptedly since then. It is a tribute to JG that she was able to be so effective while this was going on. 42 long Who could disagree with your words: “[i]There is no shortage of injustice and corruption in the world. We have seen plenty of it lately near to us.[/i]” Gordonwa The anti-Labor anti-TPS troops are out in number this evening. Something must have stung them. Is there rising panic? Jane I enjoyed reading your assessment. I agree that “[i]It will indeed be interesting to see whether the MSM will now target Rudd for destruction. Will they go the same familiar route that they did with Gillard?[/i]” I suspect they will.

Bilko

30/06/2013AA Another good post and a sad week indeed, if you remember I said neither the MSM or the Noalition will bring here down but the the nervous nellies in caucus. Re Sir Ian Crisp "Julia (Wonder Woman) can clean out the pantry(cabinet/ministry) something she failed to do at the last spill and march forward to poll axe Abbort in September. Bilko" Yes I call her Wonder Woman, and if we did not have a manipulative MSM to contend with plus internal termites she would still be PM, sadly Julia has become collateral damage but I do not think she will mind if it sinks Abbott at the election. Abbort however is the real enemy and he will be shown up by any Labor minister who challenges him to a debate. Radio earplugs or not he could not win a school debate and in my view will NEVER be Prime Minister of Australia.

nasking

30/06/2013 [b]Has anyone else noticed that Tom of wherever, Capstan and Sir Ian Crisp always seem to post in close proximity to each other? Perhaps they are all the same person.[/b] Gordonwa, MAYBE THEY ARE PIERS AKERMAN I. DISGUISE? OR ANDY BOLT...? PETER VAN ONSELEN? OR JOE HILDEBRAND? ONE OF THE LIBERTARIAN DORKS FROM THE IPA PERHAPS? OR A YOUNG LIBERAL FURIOUSLY WORKING AWAY IN THEIR PARENT'S POSH HOME? :D TRICKY CHARACTERS EVERYWHERE. N'

N'ellie May

30/06/2013Good evening Ad, Thank you and yes, you're right. I did miss that part of your post, sorry. Goes to show, I'm still not concentrating properly as am still so distressed. I'm going to take a long time before I can bear to pick up and go out to support my party any time soon. I should be able to follow her plea to us all to get on and win the next election as so much is at stake. By the way, what irony just now watching "The Years That Made Us" by Chris Masters about Australia, the Great Depression and James Scullin PM. How amazing to think that the PM of the day, who tried to protect the poor, vulnerable, homeless and disadvantaged people was scuttled by the influence of the wealthy, advantaged elite. Great show on ABC and more to come next week.

nasking

30/06/2013 [b]We Conservatives, on the other hand, have to figure out how to resurrect the country after six years of ALP incompetence.[/b] BY DRIVING IT INTO RECESSION SO THEY CAN BRING IN JOE HOCKEY AND PETER COSTELLO'S AUSTERITY MEASURES... GOOD EXCUSE TO SCREW THE POOR...PRIVATISE, OUTSOURCE, CHANGE IR LAWS, CUT TAXES TO GINA AND MURDOCH...INCREASE PENSION AGE... INCREASE GST WITH SUPPORT FROM LNP, LIBERAL STATES... MASSACRE PUBLIC SERVICE TEACHERS, NURSES, DOCTORS, FIREMEN... AND WHAT HAPPENS IF THE COALITION LOSE CONTROL OF THE ECONOMY...IF CHINA STARTS TO CRASH? WILL IT BE CUTTING THE NBN ALTOGETHER? DELAYING THE NDIS, DISABILITY SCHEME? MORE TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH...AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THEM TO RORT SUPERANNUATION? ANOTHER IRRESPONSIBLE HOUSING BOOM...LEADING TO HIGH INTEREST RATES BENEFITTING THE BIG SAVERS AT THE BIG END OF TOWN? WHILST ORDINARY AUSTRALIANS ARE HIT HIT HIT...LIKE THEY WERE UNDER HOWARD? HOW MANY INTEREST RATE RISES IN A ROW WAS THAT MR. HOWARD? AND WILL THEY MEAN MORE GOVT REVENUE WILL DEPEND ON MR. PACKER'S CASINOS...??? AND POKIES??? AND THE UNDERWORLD THAT HAVE INFILTRATED SPORTS LIKE FOXES IN THE NIGHT? I NOTE CAPSTAN LIKES HIS GAMBLING. N'

nasking

30/06/2013 GIVE ME THE RUDD WALL ANYDAY...IN ECONOMIC CRISIS TIMES. N'

denese

30/06/2013what can one say, that has not already been said about this most disgraceful time in our history our very first lady pm hounded out of office, over 500 bill went through the parliament more than male pm managed. In my lifetime I doubt another young woman would put herself forward for high office and I also wonder if now young woman will want to be mps, I am totally ashamed of my fellow australians that behaved in any sort of way to hurt JG, she was their best friend and they never knew it,, yes the media , hope its on its last legs and all who sail in it

denese

30/06/2013I read where TIm said JG was happy and almost relieved I think she also new what was best for helping us get through this bless her, I am so pleased she did not have to put with the disgusting adds the liberals would of had ready , to put here down further,, I had heard there was some coming, so I am happy she is not not being denigrated and hurt daily. I have no problem voting alp because I want Julia policies looked after so we can say Julia Gillard our only ever lady PM did that for us. the comment about the nervous nellies if the meda had praised her and talked policy,, it may have been different, so the media are also to blame

nasking

30/06/2013 CAPSTAN, THOU DOTH PROTEST TOO MUCH. :D [b]I can see a wave of panic spreading across the Coalition camp as they realize that they are now in for a close contest at the election and a challenging combatant to cope with beforehand. I can see Tony Abbott and his minders wondering how to deal with a resurgent Kevin Rudd, how to counter his newly-won popularity, how to respond to his exuberant rhetoric, and with a deep feeling of apprehension, how to match him in a policy debate. [/b] INDEED AD...INDEED. N'

Catching up

30/06/2013When Rudd was PM before, there was the phenomenon of the more the media criticised and bad mouthed him, the more the polls went up. This was true for most of the time he was PM.

Catching up

1/07/2013Abbott is not Gillard. The polls would not have to be bad for him, for long before he went to pieces. That is the difference.

nasking

1/07/2013 NITE ALL…DON’T LET THE MURDOCH BUGS BITE. I OPEN THE BLINDS EVERY DAY TO LET THE BRIGHTNESS BURN THE MURDOCH BUGS…THEY ARE HUNGRY LITTLE CREATURES…LIKE NANOBOTS TRYING TO CHANGE US ON A DAILY BASIS… CREEPING INTO PEOPLE’S HEADS AT NITE... EVEN INTO FAIRFAX. THE ABC...AND SBS. LOVE THOSE BRIGHTER DAYS. N'

Catching up

1/07/2013As for Abbott, do not they say, "Live by the sword, die by the sword" from Then said Jesus unto him, Put up again thy sword into his place: for all they that take the sword shall perish with the sword (Matthew 26:52, King James Version) I would be surprised indeed if Abbott lost his seat, It seems the same is not true for Mirabella. They say the Independent is traveling well.

Bella Melbourne

1/07/2013Ad, Thanks for another great analytical piece. As far as I'm concerned Julia's done her bit for Australia. Time for her to catch her breath before she uses her formidable talents in some other significant role. Time has come for the 2 bully boys to fight it out. I'll be voting Labor. Only Labor will preserve Julia's legacy and continue her reform agenda. The Coalition were quite convinced they had it in the bag. Over the past few months, I've hated the sight of Mirabella, Pyne, the Bishops and Hockey, but most of all I've hated Abbott's swaggering confidence. So it was a great joy to see on the news tonight he looked unhinged and panicked, while doubt was clearly etched on his daughters' faces. The bubble's burst. Hurrah!!! Did you see the footage? It was priceless.

jane

1/07/2013Ad astra, it wouldn't surprise me if Rudd's honeymoon is short, unless he butters Rupert up. Even so, Rupert is as treacherous as Rudd, so it would be interesting to see how that tussle would go. I think Rupert's job would be difficult reversing the carefully nurtured image of St Kevin the Pitifully Betrayed by the Demon Julia. I believe Rudd may have the drop on Liealot for the moment and that the Liars are rattled. Whether that continues remains to be seen. Fed up @12.11am, I'll take a Mirabella loss, even if Liealot retains his set. Like you, I doubt that voters would give Liealot the flick, unfortunately. Must away to bed. M-I-L is having a scan at QEH tomorrow & wants me there to ask drs questions, so have to ring early to find out time....blah, blah, blah!

Catching up

1/07/2013Setting up economic zones that where discredit over 30 years ago, is indeed one way to plan for the future. It is so long ago, hast I forget how they are proposed to work. I do remember, the zones were isolated, as they had to exempted from wages regulation and other laws of the country. Not only low taxes but low wages, low safety regulations for starters. I think the people , through their government are to supply the infrastructure as well.

Catching up

1/07/2013Nah Capstan, I see you have not noticed, Rudd is performing, as I believe he has been told what will happen. I see they have a tight lease on Rudd. He will not be having a free run this time. His job is to sell what has been put in place, and the policies that Gillard has created. What's more, he has been told, that he has to defend her, which he has faithfully done, apart from a couple stumbles in the beginning. I noticed that 457 bill was put back on the list, quicker that it was taken off. Looks like Cameron has it right. All policies and serious decisions will be decided by caucus. Yes, a new ball game indeed. In fact similar to the boundaries that they have put on Abbott. Difference is, I believe they will not be telling Rudd what to say. They will not be scripting him. If one did not know better, one could suspect that Gillard did the negotiating. Now that could not be true, could it? Yes, things have definitely changed.

nasking

1/07/2013 [b]Labor frontbench reshuffle: Joel Fitzgibbon and Kim Carr expected to be announced in Rudd ministry RELATED STORY: Rudd leads Abbott as preferred PM: poll[/b] Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will unveil his new-look ministry this morning, returning some of his key allies to the frontbench and shifting Gillard supporters from their current roles. Key points [b]Rudd supporters Joel Fitzgibbon and Kim Carr promoted to frontbench. Tony Burke and Brendon O'Connor moved from portfolios Environment and Immigration portfolios. Anthony Albanese to get Communications portfolio and head NBN rollout. Three new women to be promoted to frontbench: Jacinta Collins, Julie Collins, and Catherine King. The ABC understands former chief government whip Joel Fitzgibbon will be named as Agriculture minister, while Kim Carr is expected to return to the Industry and Innovation portfolio. [/b] Both men supported Mr Rudd in his efforts to return to the Prime Ministership. Anthony Albanese, who has already been promoted to Deputy Prime Minister, is expected to be the new Communications Minister after Senator Stephen Conroy quit the frontbench last week. Mr Albanese is expected to keep his Transport and Infrastructure portfolios, but will now be responsible for the rollout of the National Broadband Network. Meanwhile, the ABC has been told Environment Minister Tony Borke and Immigration Minister Brendan O'Connor - both supporters of former prime minister Julia Gillard - will be moved from their portfolios. [b]Women to get frontbench promotions Labor announced yesterday that three women would be promoted to the frontbench: Victorian Senator Jacinta Collins, and MPs Julie Collins and Catherine King.[/b] Senator Collins will become the Minister for Mental Health, Ms King will be promoted to the Regional Australia portfolio and Ms Collins will enter Cabinet with the portfolio for Housing, Homeless and Status of Women. Meanwhile, [b]Western Australian MP Melissa Parke will move to the outer ministry, taking on the International Development and Aid portfolio. The promotions mean that there will be more women serving in the Rudd Cabinet than any previous. [/b] Mr [b]Rudd will make the official announcement in Newcastle later this morning. The new line up will be sworn in by the Governor-General at a ceremony at Government House at 2:00pm (AEST).[/b] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-01/prime-minister-kevin-rudd-to-announce-new-ministry/4790302 GOOD TO SEE TWO OF MY FAVES CATHERINE KING AND MELISSA PARKE COMING IN... I DON'T KNOW JACINTA COLLINS AND JULIE COLLINS WELL. THE NEWSPOLL HAS THE COALITION AHEAD...BUT IT'S MARGIN OF ERROR STUFF...PARTICULARLY TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE MURDOCH NEWSPOLL BIAS. KEV IS WAY AHEAD IN POLLS OF ABBOTT...BREAK ON THRU. POLICY POLICY POLICY. GROUND GAME. INTERVIEWS. PRESSERS KEATING DEBATES Q&A REMINDER OF THE LIBERAL, LNP CRAP... QLD AUSTERITY, VICTORIA LEADERSHIP CHANGE, HOWARD ERA INTEREST RATE INCREASES...LIES... WORK-CHOICES WITH SENATE & REPS LINED UP... CONSEQUENCES OF LIB FEDS LINED UP WITH STATES... [b]GST & AUSTERITY (HOCKEY[/b]). N'

nasking

1/07/2013 [b]His job is to sell what has been put in place, and the policies that Gillard has created. What's more, he has been told, that he has to defend her, which he has faithfully done, apart from a couple stumbles in the beginning. I noticed that 457 bill was put back on the list, quicker that it was taken off. Looks like Cameron has it right. All policies and serious decisions will be decided by caucus.[/b] INDEED CU, WITH ADDED KEV FLAVOUR...FAIR SHAKE... N'

nasking

1/07/2013 [b]M-I-L is having a scan at QEH tomorrow & wants me there to ask drs questions,[/b] JANE, HOPE NOT TOO SERIOUS. SENDING BEST WISHES. N'

Catching up

1/07/2013The question is whether he can do it or not. Latest. wants to run the country from his Queensland verandah, the one in his old house.

nasking

1/07/2013 Only Labor will preserve Julia's legacy and continue her reform agenda. The Coalition were quite convinced they had it in the bag. Over the past few months, I've hated the sight of Mirabella, Pyne, the Bishops and Hockey, but most of all I've hated Abbott's swaggering confidence. So it was a great joy to see on the news tonight he looked unhinged and panicked, while doubt was clearly etched on his daughters' faces. The bubble's burst. Hurrah!!! BELLA MELBOURNE, WELL SAID. WHEN KEV WON IN 07...TAKING DOWN THE RODENT, DOWNER, COSTELLO, ABBOTT, MIRABELLA, BISHOP, BISHOP, PYNE, HOCKEY, ANDREWS, RUDDOCK TEAM OF OGRES...AFTER NIGH ON 12 YEARS...HE WORKED TO LIFT THE MORALE OF DISADVANTAGED SCHOOLS, THE FIRST PEOPLE, THE HOMELESS, THOSE ABOUT TO BE CRUSHED BY THE GFC. BOTH HIS...AND JULIA'S REFORMS NEED DEFENDING. ABBOTT THE MUSCULAR CRUSADING CHRISTIAN WHO CATERS TO RIGHT-WING NUTJOBS AND MEGA-RICH LOONIES AND CATHOLIC ABUSE COVERUP PRIESTS NEEDS AN ASS WHIPPIN' [b]YA GOTTA BE IN IT...TO HELP WIN IT. IF ABBOTT WINS...WITH THE USUAL SUSPECT PRESS AND SHOCK JOCKS ON SIDE...CONTROLLING THE ABC...[/b] [b]HE COULD BE IN A TORTUOUSLY LONG TIME.[/b] THINK ABOUT IT PEOPLE. [b]THE CRUSADING PUGILIST...IN AS LONG AS HOWARD. WITH NEWMAN, BARNETT, O'FARRELL, NAPTHINE..EVENTUALLY OTHER PREMIERS...CLAPPING. DICING. CHOPPING. [/b] N'

lyn

1/07/2013Today’s Links Since Wednesday night by @awelder The press gallery has failed the nation, its employers, and the politicians who sustain them; it has no future in its current form. The Coalition is left with, as the masterful Piping Shrike observes, "an unpopular leader ... with policies that the electorate doesn’t especially like" http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/ Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition by Poll Bludger James J reports Newspoll has come in at 51-49 to the Coalition (compared with 57-43 last week) from primary votes of 35% for Labor (up six), 43% for the Coalition (down five) and 11% for the Greens (up two). Kevin Rudd holds a handy 49-35 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/06/30/newspoll-51-49-to-coalition-5/ Kevin Rudd is Australians' preferred PM, polls show days after her repaced Julia Gillard (VIDEO) by @freyapetersen The Murdoch press, which commissioned the Galaxy poll, wrote that thanks largely to to Rudd, the Labor Party had a fighting chance at the election, with a two-party preferred result of 49 percent to the Coalition's 51 percent. http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/130630/kevin-rudd-australian-prime-minister- Instant poll bounce for Labor under Kevin Rudd by The Guardian The poll, published in Sunday's News Limited newspapers, shows most voters think Rudd would be a better prime minister than Tony Abbott, scoring 51% to Abbott's 34% http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/30/instant-poll-bounce-rudd-labor?CMP=twt_fd And Galaxy makes three by Mark the Ballott Today's Galaxy, means we now have three polls telling much the same story. http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/ Ethical lapses by journalists contributed to Gillard’s demise by Coffs Outlook These included crude abuse and incitement to hatred on commercial radio talkback, while among other mainstream media the failure of impartiality, failure of contextual accuracy, and the willingness to exploit rather than challenge debased public discourse. http://coffsoutlook.com/ethical-lapses-by-journalists-contributed-to-gillards-demise/ Abbott’s End (66): His First Exchange With Rudd On Piracy And War by Bob Ellis his ‘Rudd carpet’ line, a joke about families dying at sea — wowee, that’s funny — was a poor one, he will soon find. You do not joke about drowning children, any more than you joke about gassed Jews. Rudd should ask him to go to Djakarta with him and talk things over in, http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2013/06/29/abbotts-end-66-the-first-exchange-on-piracy-and-war/ Gender, bias or nasty politics? by @btckr In the end it did not matter what Ms Gillard did; she came under personal attack for everything she did and the way she did it — even knitting a kangaroo, a present for the Royal baby about to be born. The kind of thing a woman would do — even some men, for that matter. So, again, not a gender thing but a personal thing. http://thesnipertakesaim.wordpress.com/2013/06/30/gender-bias-or-nasty-politics/ Public perception begins to run against Opposition Leader Tony Abbott again- by @no_filter_Yamba Tony Abbott is regarded by more respondents to be arrogant (59%), intolerant (48%), narrow-minded (55%) and aggressive (51%). http://northcoastvoices.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/public-perception-begins-to-run-against.html Slipper, Palmer, Brough and Joe “go to hell” Hockey by @independentaus Hockey too blustered his innocence, but the allegations are out there now, in Hansard — serious allegations that need to be addressed by the member for North Sydney. Otherwise, he’s going to have to tell half of Australia to go to hell. http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/slipper-palmer-brough-and-joe-go-to-hell-hockey/ Kevin Rudd’s First Question Time After Becoming PM Again Reveals His Strategy by @djackmanson the Coalition has been ahead by huge amounts in the polls, taking advantage of the unpopularity and strategic errors of the Gillard government. But the Opposition is unpopular too, and now the ALP has a leader who can play the role of wide-eyed, earnest outsider and appeal to voters sick of politicians. http://ausvotes2013.com/2013/06/29/kevin-rudds-first-question-time-after-becoming-pm-again-reveals-his-strategy/ What do you think? by @MigloMT What has Abbott got with Gillard gone? Nothing, absolutely nothing. No polices of worth. A badly flawed asylum policy and the world coming on board, including China and the USA, in relation to carbon emissions. http://cafewhispers.wordpress.com/ The stalking of Julia Gillard by @btckr News Limited’s newspapers and its Channel 10 network it seemed to me that it was opposed to the Labor federal government because its policies did not support the business agenda of proprietors and shareholders, media baron Rupert Murdoch and minerals miner Gina Rinehart, http://truthinmediaresourcecentre.wordpress.com/2013/06/30/the-stalking-of-julia-gillard/ Julia Gillard . Wonder woman by @GOosterman It must beggar belief in other developed nations to see a leader who has delivered low unemployment, low interest rates, low inflation, three triple-A credit ratings and the third-lowest rate of debt in the OECD shafted so brutally. http://pigsarms.com.au/2013/06/29/julia-gillard-wonder-woman/ Tribute to our shy first female PM by @nancycato1 many people (including your Nanna) have cause to believe that as a woman, she endured, through the Press, the Parliament and the Public, the most horrendous and consistent barrage of bullying, ridicule and misogyny unparalleled in Australian History. http://nofibs.com.au/2013/06/30/nancycato1-tribute-to-our-shy-first-female-pm/ Perceptions of Diplomatic Conflict by Gordon I sense the Coalition has begun to realise they are losing control over the national conversation as evidenced by their need to hold an emergency war room meeting in Canberra yesterday, Former Prime Minister John Howard joining Tony Abbott on the campaign trail and this hysterical outburst from Senator Michaelia Cash in the senate yesterday. http://gordonsthoughts.wordpress.com/2013/06/29/perceptions-of-diplomatic-conflict/ The northern food bowl is already full by Andrew Picone It seems that in drafting its 2030 vision, the Coalition seems to have been consulting more with the likes of Gina Rinehart than the people and communities who actually live here. http://www.abc.net.au/environment/articles/2013/06/27/3790269.htm Is it the role of journalists to play kingmaker? by @ethicalmartini The relentless and poisonously personal campaign that The Australian and other Murdoch papers have waged against Julia Gillard for the past three years is well documented. No one at News Limited has a nice word for Julia Gillard or the government she led http://ethicalmartini.wordpress.com/2013/06/30/is-it-the-role-of-journalists-to-play-kingmaker/ An Abbott in the Lodge “NEVER” Tonyisms by @saint13333 we may not yet have seen the full extent of his nastiness. We might have to wait – God forbid – for the day he ever becomes Prime Minister.It will be nasty for all of us.In part four. Future Court Appearances. http://theaimn.com/2013/06/30/an-abbott-in-the-lodge-never-to-nyisms/ Going The Distance by @madwixxy It would be ironic if we ended up with another hung parliament and the only thing between Tony Abbott and The Lodge was the vote of Craig Thomson. Brilliantly ironic. http://wixxyleaks.com/2013/06/30/going-the-distance/ Today’s Front Pages Australian Newspaper Front Pages for 1 July 2013 http://www.thepaperboy.com/australia/front-pages.cfm News headlines http://www.hotheadlines.com.au/

janice

1/07/2013Nellie May, [quote]So I can't, iin all honesty, bring myself to ever look at Australian politicians in the same light again. I cannot go forth and support them because my heart is broken and I cannot be a hypocrite and vote for Rudd. What a dilemma![/quote] I feel your pain. However, unless you live in the seat of Griffith you will not be voting for the termite. As a member of the Labor Party, I urge you to vote for your Labor candidate in order to (hopefully) ensure Labor wins the election. It is the only way the hard work and achievements of Julia Gillard's government will go on. I have reached the "acceptance" stage in my grief, but it does not mean I accept or will ever forgive the treachery of the termite and his handful of workers. I live in the seat of Hunter and at this time I plan to vote Labor in the Senate but am undecided what I will do about the reps. If it looks like the Fritz might be in trouble, I will hold my nose and vote for him, otherwise my vote will go elsewhere.

Lucy

1/07/2013I was out in Gympie yesterday. I can confirm Kevin has been very positive for the Party. People really love him. Even people who are still grieving for Julia are trying to see the positives. Kevin has much to build on thanks to JG's hard work and determination.

nasking

1/07/2013 BE SAD IF WE LOST A GOOD ARTICULATE CANDIDATE LIKE JIM CHALMERS. HE SHOULD REPLACE EMERSON. I DO LIKE GREG RAGUSE...BUT CHALMERS KNOWS THE MSM...DOES WELL ON IT.

nasking

1/07/2013 AT POLL BLUDGER, CRIKEY MY COMMENT HAS BEEN WAITING TO BE MODERATED SINCE 5:55AM...ALMOST TWO HOURS... I SPENT YEARS PROMOTING CRIKEY...HAVE A SUBSCRIPTION...HAVE BOUGHT STUFF AND PROMOTED FIRST DOG ON THE MOON...AND THIS IS HOW I GET TREATED. YET, PLENTY OF OTHER COMMENTS HAVE GONE THRU FROM OTHERS. N'

Ad astra

1/07/2013LYN'S DAILY LINKS updated: http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/page/LYNS-DAILY-LINKS.aspx

nasking

1/07/2013 GOOD STUFF: Cancer treatments and an anti-stroke medication were also named as newcomers to the PBS. Breakthrough skin cancer drug ipilimumab, late-stage prostate cancer treatment abiraterone and breast cancer medication vinorelbine were added to the list in a move that will cost taxpayers $430 million over the next four years. Anti-stroke medication rivaroxaban was also included. ''The exciting thing about these new treatments is that they will extend the life of patients with melanoma, with prostate cancer, with breast cancer,'' Ms Plibersek said. The Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia welcomed news of abiraterone's listing to help in the fight against a cancer that kills 3300 men each year. ''Affordable access to therapy at all stages of the condition is vital and the minister's decision to include the therapy on the PBS highlights her commitment to all Australians touched by prostate cancer,'' foundation chief Anthony Lowe said. Cancer Australia also welcomed the new PBS listings. ''All these agents are important in their own way and to have them available more widely is very important to patients,'' Professor Jim Bishop said on behalf of the national body. Federal Health Minister Tanya Plibersek announced on Sunday that mifepristone and misoprostol - used in combination to terminate a pregnancy of up to seven weeks gestation - would be added to the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. ''By offering this different option at a very difficult time in a woman's life, I hope that we are giving more choice in what are often extraordinary difficult circumstances,'' Ms Plibersek said. Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/abortion-drug-subsidies-blasted-cancer-treatments-welcomed-20130630-2p5b4.html#ixzz2XjuLy5A6 GOVT TAKING US INTO REAL WORLD... REAL WORLD NEEDS... NOT ABBOTT FANTASY LAND RUN BY CHEAPOS AND RIGHT-WING CATHOLIC NUTBAGS AND ABUSERS. N'

nasking

1/07/2013 SPEAKING OF NOT FACING UP TO THE REAL WORLD: [b]Cardinal George Pell has failed Australia's 5 million Catholics as a religious and moral leader and must be told to stand down as Sydney Archbishop, according to a petition by a clergy sexual abuse victims' group to the Pope's Australian ambassador.[/b] ''Cardinal Pell is a spiritually impotent leader, a leader who presents no empathy, no moral judgment and no felt deep concern for victims, a leader who is avoiding responsibility for the immorality and sodomy that has been breeding in his house of God,'' says the petition to papal nuncio Archbishop Paul Gallagher. ''It is time for the Roman Catholic Church in Australia to change, and the starting point is for Cardinal George Pell to stand down. He is part of the problem, not the solution.'' [b]The request by victims' advocacy group COIN comes as another petition, launched last month by Sydney Catholic Bishop Geoffrey Robinson calling for a global church council to tackle the scourge of clergy sexual abuse, has passed 80,000 signatures.[/b] [b]Bishop Robinson said on Sunday that he was happy with the response, ''but we've only been going a few weeks, and this is just the beginning''.[/b] Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/victims-call-for-pell-to-stand-down-20130630-2p5au.html#ixzz2Xjsy2VSy THERE IS A TSUNAMI COMING ON THIS ISSUE. N'

nasking

1/07/2013 [b]I was out in Gympie yesterday. I can confirm Kevin has been very positive for the Party. People really love him. [/b] LUCY, THAT'S GREAT NEWS...I HAVE TWO FRIENDS IN GYMPIE...ONE HAS A BRO WHO IS A GOOD MATE IN SYDNEY AND HE TELLS ME HIS SISTER DESPISES ABBOTT...SO I BET SHE IS PLEASED. I KNOW THE OTHER FELLA WOULDN'T DIG ABBOTT EITHER. HE HATES OVER THE TOP RELIGIOUS CRUSADERS...HE'S A BIT OF A SOCIAL LIBERTARIAN. LIKES ASSANGE THO. I THINK RUDD STUCK UP FOR ASSANGE. GOOD LUCK LUCY...WE ARE ALL ROOTING FOR YOU. N'

Dianne

1/07/2013I reckon Abbott will go. His purpose disappeared with Julia Gillard. He is a bare-knuckle fighter not a shadow boxer. That is what he will be required to do with Rudd. The latest polls show how soft was the supposed support for Abbott. He had demonized Julia so effectively that voters had to park with him. If his support drifts away even further, watch the media turn on him. He will be like one of those poor injured injured magpies you sometimes see being set upon by its gang. Brutal. Watch Turnbull. He is not going to be put in she shade by Rudd. He is not in there to serve in an Abbott government.

jane

1/07/2013NAS' thanks for your concern. Not v good news, I'm afraid. Cancer, but we don't know what sort as yet. Scan to determine size. Fingers crossed. Am posting from my phone. Not ideal, but needs must etc. I agree that we all must co.ti.ue to support Labor to preserve Julia's legacy. I will most likely do so, but not because The Termite is now PM. Hypocrites on ABC busy minimising their role in Julia's demonisation & downfall. Maggots, afaic. CU, I'm glad The Termite is under a tight leash, but I have little faith in his word or his ability to control his hubris. And really, what can they do if he reneges? It will be the same ol', same ol'. He will still be the same treacherous Termite. I'll laugh long & hard if he does a Peter Garrett on a faithful fellow termite. Make that when. Once a spineless git, always a spineless git.

nasking

1/07/2013 A REMINDER, LYN...THNX FOR LINKS...BUT: [b]Ms Kerry-Anne Walsh:[/b] [b]Pru Goward's producer on ABC's Radio National in the early '90[/b]s - [b]and she spent six years writing national affairs for The Bulletin, along with stints in the Murdoch stable's Telegraph group[/b] http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/opinion/the-story-rudd-tried-to-kill/2007/03/30/1174761750893.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2 THAT'S BEFORE THE SMH. INTERESTING HOW THE RUDD CRITICS HAVE CONNECTIONS TO THE BULLETIN (PACKER) AND MURDOCH. [b]SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A PINCH OF SALT.[/b] [b]WALSH CAN BE A MUCK-RAKING, TABLOID STYLE DIRT THROWER JUST LIKE ELLEN FANNING... BOTH PRETENDING TO BE SINCERE...AND ABOVE THAT KIND OF GUTTER WORK.[/b] NO LONGER EYES WIDE SHUT. [b]MAKING A LIST OF FORMER BULLETIN WORKERS WHO HAVE DUMPED ON RUDD...REMEMBER ABBOTT AND TURNBULL WORKED THERE FOR PACKER TOO...[/b] AND HIS [b]CONNECTION TO CHANNEL NINE[/b]. N'

nasking

1/07/2013 [b]Scan to determine size. Fingers crossed[/b] JANE, SORRY TO HEAR IT'S CANCER. SENDING GOOD KARMA YER MOTHER-IN-LAW'S WAY. GOOD ONYA FOR HELPING OUT. STACEY (SANQUEEN) SENDS HER BEST TOO. HER MUM WENT THRU SAME...SURVIVED... TEN YEARS ON STILL CLEAR. THANK GAWD FOR FUNDING OF CANCER TREATMENT AND MEDICARE. N'

Ad astra

1/07/2013Folks Another busy day is ahead of us. A new ministry to analyse, and another poll, [i]Newspoll[/i] itself, which aligns with the several so far since the change of leader. Knowing as we do that polls this far out from the election cannot predict its outcome, it would be wise for Labor supporters to not get too excited. As they say: polls go up and down. Nonetheless, Labor people are bound to enjoy not having to suffer all the media hype of yet another bad poll. Those would pushed hard for a change will feel justified. But it is the Coalition that will be most affected by the [i]Newspoll[/i], a poll that has given them a big lead for many months, and with it confidence that the next election would be a shoo-in. Slogan-Abbott will be particularly worried to see his lead in the PPM so dramatically reversed. His minders will be reviewing his strategies, and asking if persistence with three word slogans will continue to be as effective as before. There will be furrowed brows, sweaty armpits, and anxious policy wonks scrambling to get a coherent message together for the Coalition to promote in place of the slogans. Not before time! The boost to Labor’s fortunes may not be sustained as good policy and sensible modifications to existing policy will be needed to sustain Labor’s newfound support. Let’s hope that will be the pattern in the weeks ahead!

N'ellie May

1/07/2013Janice Thank you. Your wise words make a lot of sense. On another matter, I don't think what was done by Barry Cassidy, Tony Windsor and Rob was decent at all yesterday on Insiders. I don't think that humiliating Mirabella is any different to what was done to Ms Gillard. Yes, criticise the policies, don't attack the individual in such personal terms. She and her fellow conservatives are doing what they think is right for this country even if others disagree. We have all seen how foul the level of political debate has fallen and now, here's the press destroying the confidence of yet another woman. Thank you Lyn for your endless work for us. Good luck today Jane.

pappinbarra Fox

1/07/2013Ad said: [quote]So here’s the rub: no matter how many warnings professional pollsters have given about the danger of using polls for decision making because of their lack of predictive power, media commentators have ignored the warnings and have used them to make predictions day after day, month after month. Politicians have lapped up what they have said and have used their predictions to make some of the most drastic decisions imaginable, such as changing leaders.[/quote] Ad it is not just the pollies. The hypocracy of some of the commenters on this site knows no bounds. Now that the polls seem to have swung Labor's way the polls suddenly carry gravitas and are to be taken seriously and the pollsters have got it right - to read some of the commenters here. Really. Catching up and Diane Both make good points- LOTO has had his punching bag taken away so I suppose he will sook it like a baby. I noticed that he did not attend Dr Yunupingu's memorial service yesterday. He sent along that great thinker and friend of our brothers who really looked like he did not want to be there. During the moments silenece he tapped his feet, fidgeted looked around while everyone else had their heads bowed humbly(even Kevin - which must have been hard for him and all).

Ken

1/07/2013Ad I notice that the media coverage of the polls is not as negative as it has been. If Julia was still PM I have little doubt that a poll like this would be headlined "Labor behind" or some such. But no, they do seem to be reporting the bounce (at least the coverage I have seen so far). I don't entirely agree with your emphasis on Newspoll. As I commented in the previous thread, I believe that politicians do take notice of the polling [u]trends[/u] and particularly their reading of the feelings in their own electorate - and most politicians do know their own electorate. I think their attention to trends is evidenced by the the numbers for the non-challenge in February or March (I already forget)not being there but being there last week. Julia had had another four months but the polls were not moving - and that is across all polls, as Labor was stuck around 30% on the primary vote. I have little doubt that trend, as well as their local knowledge, played a major role. I agree completely with the comments about Rudd's whiteanting and, of course, the wholly negative media coverage. Again as I said in the previous thread, the change in tone of some of that coverage does suggest that it was particularly aimed at Julia, not Labor. And the only reason I can see for that was the fact we had a female PM. My greatest "what if" in this scenario is that Julia and Rudd could have worked together. Catching up: agree that the tight lease on Rudd intended by Cabinet and Caucus does have the hallmarks of Julia's negotiating skills. An interesting possibility.

Doug Evans

1/07/2013Ad Astra You are wrong about the Polls but partly right about the manner in which they are influenced by the MSM. I'll take your assertion about the polls first. You say: "no matter how many warnings professional pollsters have given about the danger of using polls for decision making because of their lack of predictive power……etc" Are you absolutely sure of this? Despite your assertion via John Stirton of their 'lack of predictive power' aggregated polls stretched over an extended period give a pretty good idea of what is likely to happen. THEY ACTUALLY GET ELECTION RESULTS RIGHT FAR MORE OFTEN THAN THEY GET THEM WRONG. This is supported by the following: "How often are are they wrong? Rarely. Professor of political science at the Australian National University Ian McAllister says that for the most part, pollsters can be relied upon. From time to time, there are rogue polls and outliers when the sample hasn’t been correctly selected. However, a look at poll records prove reliability. O’Shannessy said: “Newspoll has done 52 polls handled immediately before a state or federal election and we got it right every time. In fact we even often detect late swings at the last moment. For example, in 2010, everyone was calling it a Labour parliament, but we actually called it a hung parliament based on our poll.” Richardson says Roy Morgan, Nielsen and Newspoll have a long history and generally been accurate: “Newspoll generally puts its neck on the line a bit more because it comes out more frequently, and so you get slightly more variations. Nielsen is probably better at giving you a longer-term trend, but because it has those long intervals, you might miss out on some of the movement in between. Galaxy has a less-established record but in the time it’s been operating, it has been very accurate.” The EVIDENCE actually suggests that, despite your assertion, the notion that Polls can't be relied on as predictors of future events is WRONG. Individual polls are a snapshot. The EVIDENCE is that such a snapshot taken just before an election is a highly reliable predictor of an election outcome. A sequence of polls establishes a trend. The EVIDENCE is that an aggregated sequence of polls establishes a trend with a high degree of reliability. WRT to your claims about the deceptive use made by the MSM of poll results: As you say the MSM certainly trumpets individual poll results as they emerge as predictors of future events. This is often misleading and is often done as part of a deliberate (but unstated) campaign to influence public opinion in support of the media's own business interests. However this is by no means the only reporting they do on polls. If you look you can find plenty of responsible reporting of long term trends in the same media outlets that also make use of the shock horror headlines. Ad Astra I suspected your assertion about polls as soon as I read it. It took me five minutes of googling to find the quote I used to support my counter-assertion. I think that nothing I have written here is news to you but that it just doesn't fit your desired narrative. My suspicion is that the end point of your argument is pre-determined and that your supporting evidence is cherry picked to support your desired conclusion. You recently said to me " We have to decide whose side we are on, and fight for it. I made that decision long ago." I say telling of half the story is telling half truths and that you are spreading a deliberately distorted version of the facts to support your preferred political state of being. You rightly castigate the MSM for their self interested activist interference with our democratic processes. How is what you are engaged in different? I say we live in a time of growing crisis and that at such times it is necessary to see clearly what is going on as the necessary basis for formulating what (if anything) is to be done. Given the state of the MSM, widely read bloggers such as yourself have a heavy responsibility to be part of the solution. At the moment despite your penchant for donning the cloak of progressiveness I find you to be part of the problem. If published I don't expect this comment to be well received. It may be totally ignored but if anyone cares to respond I would be grateful if they played the ball instead of the man and addressed the ARGUMENT I am trying to present. I'm not interested in swapping gratuitous insults.

Shaun

1/07/2013Great article, thanks. I've been absolutely poll-axed (bad pun?) by Labor's decision to dump Julia, makes the 2010 excuses seem more than a little dodgy now. I'm dead-set certain that Turnbull is preparing and Abbott knows it. Malcolm set himself up to go soft on the NBN with the 30 billion dollar announcement and the body language between the two at the time suggests they'd had big barny about it. Turnbull ticks two big boxes for the swingers SSM and no "carbon tax" by going to an ETS sooner, the same as Rudd. He can play the me-too master at his own game but ride on the stop-the-boats and better-economic-mangers myths.

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1/07/2013Bella Melbourne Welcome to [i]The Political Sword[/i] family and thank you for your kind comment. Do come again. I agree that Julia has done a magnificent job for this nation by providing a solid policy base on which Labor can build. I missed the news last night as I was at a family function. Do you have a link to the news item you mention?

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1/07/2013jane I’m sorry to read about your mother-in-law’s health problem. I hope things work out well for with modern treatment. You may be right about Kevin Rudd’s popularity falling away over time. All we can say from the few polls since the change of leader is that the previous trend is temporarily reversed. Will that last? Is it indicative of the election result? In my view, no it is not.

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1/07/2013N’ellie May I think we all have conflicting emotions; sadness at the sudden removal of a wonderful PM, but hope for the defeat of Slogan-Abbott and his flimsy front bench. janice captures the dilemma with her wise comment at 7.08 AM.

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1/07/2013Bilko Thank you for your complimentary remarks. I agree with your comment: “[i]Yes, I call her Wonder Woman, and if we did not have a manipulative MSM to contend with plus internal termites she would still be PM, sadly Julia has become collateral damage but I do not think she will mind if it sinks Abbott at the election.

 Abbort however is the real enemy and he will be shown up by any Labor minister who challenges him to a debate.”[/i]. He certainly will be! Lucy I’m glad you got such good feedback in Gympie for the local boy from Nambour, where I first went to school Dianne You may be right when you say: “[i]I reckon Abbott will go. His purpose disappeared with Julia Gillard. He is a bare-knuckle fighter not a shadow boxer. That is what he will be required to do with Rudd. The latest polls show how soft was the supposed support for Abbott. He had demonized Julia so effectively that voters had to park with him. If his support drifts away even further, watch the media turn on him.[/i] That is what this piece postulates – that Slogan-Abbott might be Newspoll’s next victim. I think we can be certain that if the Murdoch media suspects he is going to lose the election, it will ruthlessly pull the rug. Fairfax probably won’t, as its chief political correspondent, Peter Hartcher, is a rusted-on Rudd man. nasking Kerry Ann Walsh’s book should be good reading; apparently she has forensically dissected the stalking of Julia Gillard. PF I have cautioned about drawing conclusions from the recent polls, or indeed from any single poll or small cluster. While it is a pleasant change to be spared the media hype that we hear every time a bad poll for Labor arrives, we would be foolish to believe that the recent polls can predict the election result. They will close the gap on the trend graph, that’s all. Shaun Thank you for your kind comment. Turnbull, whom Abbott had removed, no doubt feels like Rudd. He would love his job back. That is an ongoing existential threat to Slogan-Abbott.

jaspercarrot

1/07/2013I normally read but don't get involved. Capstan. I seem to remember that you offered odds before. A couple of readers wanted to lodge bets with you. Even offered to deposit money in Banks or with AD. You did not respond to any of them.You squibbed it, or chickened out whatever you want to call it ! You seem to be all mouth, but gutless when it matters. I seem to remember you offered 30 to 1 odds. You were really spineless. You even refused to answer the people who wanted to bet with you. I will search back over the posts and print what you said before. Obviously you can't be trusted or believed

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1/07/2013Doug Evans You conclude your comments about polls with: “[i]I'm not interested in swapping gratuitous insults.”[/i] How would you categorize these sentences from your post: “[i]My suspicion is that the end point of your argument is pre-determined and that your supporting evidence is cherry picked to support your desired conclusion.”[/i] and “[i]I say telling of half the story is telling half truths and that you are spreading a deliberately distorted version of the facts to support your preferred political state of being.[/i]” If these are not gratuitous insults, please tell me what they are? To me they come across as impugning my motives. Challenge my argument by all means, but do be careful about challenging motives. You assert: “[i]The EVIDENCE actually suggests that, despite your assertion, the notion that Polls can't be relied on as predictors of future events is WRONG. Individual polls are a snapshot. The EVIDENCE is that such a snapshot taken just before an election is a highly reliable predictor of an election outcome. A sequence of polls establishes a trend. The EVIDENCE is that an aggregated sequence of polls establishes a trend with a high degree of reliability.”[/i] Why did you choose to use capitals when lower case would have done and be less likely to come across as thumping the table? You may care to re-read these words from my piece: [i]“Pollster Peter Lewis of Essential Vision tells us: “[i]A poll never predicts the future. Anyone who says they know what the future holds is deluded.”[/i] Aggregated polls that show trends are more useful though.[/i] The last sentence coincides with your assertion. Possum Comitatus has offered such polling trends for years in [i]Pollytrend[/i] in preference to commenting on individual polls. I regard him as the best analyst of polls in this country. Recall how many times I have added the caveat: ‘this far out from the election’ when asserting that an individual poll is not predictive of the election outcome. Of course, polls taken immediately before an election will be more predictive of the outcome than those taken remotely. Remember though that many analysts of polls taken in juxtaposition to the US Presidential election had Romney winning, but Obama won comfortably. The got it badly wrong, much to the chagrin of the conservative media, which went on insisting that Romney would win even as the results showed he would not. Only one analyst, Nate Silver, got it right. The other point I would make is that polls are just part of the process; the media inflames them with its partisan hype and contributes to the development of the trend by influencing responses to the next set of polls. By all means have a view different from mine, but accept that my view too is based on evidence. So it boils down to whose evidence is most valid and reliable. Finally, the thrust of this post is that polls have been used to remove a leader, as they were last time. My question is whether these instruments, with all their vagaries, ought to be used as the dominant reason for such radical action. John Stirton does not think so. You may conclude that our views are not all that far apart, and that a long-winded argument is unlikely to serve a useful purpose.

lyn

1/07/2013Good Morning Ad, Thankyou very much for your new article, we are spoilt and we know it. Once again an honest, genuine very thoughtful well researched piece to delight us all. Ad you said “Another busy day is ahead of us. A new ministry to analyse” it has just been head down, read, read, read for me, 6 days in a row and more to come. N’ellie May, Thankyou for your appreciation and your contributions, I do enjoy your opinion very much. Dennis Shanahan reports through gritted teeth or gritted keyboard: [i]Kevin Rudd picks up where he left off in Newspoll by Dennis Shanahan [/i]KEVIN Rudd has stormed ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister and dramatically lifted Labor's primary vote to a six-month high only days after becoming the party's leader again. Mr Abbott lost 10 percentage points in just one week as preferred PM - his biggest single fall on record and his lowest level since the beginning of the year. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-out-of-the-doldrums-in-newspoll-as-kevin-rudd-picks-up-where-he-left-off/story-fn59niix-1226672261175

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1/07/2013Ken I hope you are right about a softer approach from the media. I suspect the Murdoch media is trawling its files for adverse information about Rudd to launch a new assault on him and Labor. With Peter Hartcher, a Rudd man from way back, Fairfax might be supportive. I agree with your view: “[i]I believe that politicians do take notice of the polling trends and particularly their reading of the feelings in their own electorate - and most politicians do know their own electorate.”[/i] To avoid repeating myself, I invite you to read my response to Doug Evans.

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1/07/2013jaspercarrot Welcome to [i]The Political Sword[/i] family. Do come again. I doubt if you will get anything positive from Capstan.

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1/07/2013Hi Lyn Thank you for your very kind comments and for the link to Dennis Shanahan’s piece, as you say, likely written through gritted teeth. I notice in the sidebar that Dennis says: ‘Polls will dictate the election date’. Again we see polls ruling the roost. Pollsters and their owners have built a massive business from them and journalists feed off them, so they are never going to let them go! As you can see, I’ve been busy responding to comments, so haven’t had a chance to get to your links. I’ve had a few technical problems too, now fixed. I’ll read them after lunch.

Catching up

1/07/2013Polls can never predict the future. People voice their opinion on, where they are at now. It registers what they believe now. To say, they are going to be at the same place, months down the track, ignores how one come to the conclusion, they voice in that poll. One bases their opinion on what is occurring now. To have the same opinion in say four months, would have to mean, nothing happens in that time, to lead them to changing their minds. Take the last week, as an example. One event, change the opinion of many. Changed their opinion immediately. Something else could happen tomorrow, maybe Abbott releasing some good policy, costed and detailed, that turns the polls back to him. Well they say miracles do happen. To claim that polls indicate what is going to happen down the track is impossible, for everything would have to remain static during that time, for that to happen. When one has such high undecided or do not knw, they are of little value, even at this time. We have had polls saying the people want Rudd back. Most of those numbers come from Coalition voters, not Labor. If the present Polls are correct, those supporting Rudd now come from Labor, not the Coalition A reversal, which surprised me, since Rudd made his run, and succeeded in deposing Gillard. So they are even not much good for predicting things in the present.

Catching up

1/07/2013jane, I hope things turn out well. That seems to be the case most times now. Not nice though.

Ad astra

1/07/2013Catching up Your comments are germane. I agree that predictions far from an election are not predictive for the reasons you state. Trends however are more reliable. You will be interested in Bernard Keane's take on today's [i]Essential Poll[/i], which usually aggregates two weeks polling: [i]"The restoration of Kevin Rudd has produced a four-point lift in Labor's primary vote since last Wednesday, with Labor rising to 38% for the first time since February 2011, new polling from Essential Research shows. That result -- in line with other polling today -- sharply reduces the Coalition's two-party preferred lead from 55-45% last week to 52-48%. On Essential's normal two-week rolling average, the Coalition leads 53-47%. The Coalition's primary vote after the return of Rudd is 46%, with the Greens on 9%. While the sample size is smaller than normal for Essential (around 900), the number of "other/independent" has fallen dramatically, from 11% down to 7%. February 2011 is when Julia Gillard announced she was embracing a carbon price; until then, Labor and the Coalition had been deadlocked; thereafter, Labor's vote collapsed, along with Gillard's standing with voters. It's also, incidentally, Rudd's worst result as Prime Minister -- Labor led 52-48% when he was ousted in June 2010. The decision to dump Gillard was approved by 55% of voters, including 24% who strongly approved, and opposed by 31%. Some 77% of Labor voters approved, 40% of Liberal voters and 49% of Greens voters. But men were much more likely to approve: 63% of male voters supported Gillard's removal, compared to only 46% of women; women disapproved 36% compared to 29% of men. A third of voters said it made them more likely to vote Labor and only 19% said it made them less likely. More than 60% of Labor voters said it made them more likely to vote Labor, and 14% of Liberal voters, but a third of Liberal voters said it made them less likely to vote Labor. The 38% figure was always the goal for the Gillard camp: they felt if they got back to 38% they'd be competitive with Abbott and it would provide a springboard for an election campaign assault. Labor under Gillard got within touching distance, hitting 37% on a couple of occasions in the second half of 2012 when Gillard briefly began reeling Abbott back in, but it all went to pieces after the announcement of the election date at the start of the year. The extent to which Labor collapsed after improving in the second half of 2012 is illustrated by a series of responses on which groups would be better off under Labor or the Coalition. In September last year, voters gave Labor a big lead for groups like pensioner, the unemployed, people on low incomes, people with disabilities, people who send their children to public schools and recently arrived immigrants. Last week, Labor's lead had shrunk virtually across the board: its preference as the best party for the unemployed fell from 27 points to 14 points; for low-income earners from 27 points to 21 points; for single parents from 23 to 15 points. Only for people with disabilities had it increased, from 20 to 21 points. The damage done to Labor's "branding" as a party to be trusted to look after lower income earners is significant. There's also been a significant drop in support for keeping our troops in Afghanistan, with the level of voters wanting us to withdraw our troops increasing seven points to 69%, with virtually no difference across voting intention.[/i]"

Bacchus

1/07/2013Jane, I'd like to echo the thoughts of Nas, CU & AA. Positive thoughts coming your way from the Bacchus household today, like your support of my S-I-L when she faced similar problems.

pappinbarra Fox

1/07/2013Ad I was not remarking on your view of the recent polls - not sure you had read them when you posted this piece. Your view of polls is well known and I agree with it mainly. No I was referring to some commenters here who had commented on the "great" poll figures that the ALP and its leader received last night and this morning. They cannot have it both ways. If they try to that is hipocracy.

Bilko

1/07/2013Capstan@1030ish pm I have already put $50 on Julia's labor to win the bet still stands so I look forward to a x6 payout. AA, keep the faith, Abbort on the run nice to see. As you may be aware my lad went down with Julia and neither of us believe Kevin has changed. Expect the Krudd rhetoric to ramp up as soon as the noalition wake up. May the force be with us all

Patriciawa

1/07/2013Great post, Ad Astra. I just had to copy this para to my "Last Post for PM Julia Gillard" at http://polliepomes.wordpress.com/ [quote] Those of us who have supported Julia Gillard so fervently are appalled at the way she has been treated, and lament her fate. We have lost an outstanding politician, and a strong and steadfast female warrior. We commiserate her untimely exit from public life and hope she will reappear in another influential role that will engage her outstanding talent and her strength of character. We shall miss her bubbling personality, her strength, her courage, her resoluteness, her devotion, her graciousness, her capacity to get things done against the odds and bring about much needed traditional Labor reforms, and her determination to stand up for women’s rights. [/quote] It's in good company if you have time to view how I've placed it.

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1/07/2013Hi Lyn I’ve just now finished reading your superb collection of links, and what a great read they were. Naturally there were many items on the poll results. While Labor supporters will be relieved that Labor is not taking another hammering from the media after yet another poor poll, it would be unwise to give much credence to each individual poll’s ability to predict the result of the election, whenever that might be. The polls contribute to the trend, which shows a sharp narrowing of the gap between the parties. The extent to which it will be sustained over time is an unknown. According to ausvotes2013, and using the media’s usual phrase: ‘if an election were held today’ and these results were to occur, Labor would win around 71 seats and the Coalition 77, with two ‘others’, a eight or four seat majority for the Coalition, depending on how the ‘others’ vote, a somewhat narrower one than predicted a week ago. But the election is not being held today, and as we have seen, events (such as what we saw last week) can change the situation and predictions radically, rendering previous ones seriously unrepresentative of reality.

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1/07/2013Folks You may find this table from today’s [i]Essential Report[/i] of interest: http://essentialvision.com.au/groups-better-off-under-labor-or-liberal-government-2

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1/07/2013Hi Lyn Sorry, I gave the wrong reference; instead of ausvotes2013 it should have bee [i]Mark the ballot[/i].

42 long

1/07/2013One thing for sure will change. The "smugness" of the LieNP. How could the Abbott possibly contemplate a defeat?. The only way to shore up a win is by going with Turnbull. Could the LieNP have that in them? How can they react properly to the changing climate change attitude world wide that goes against all the contempt they have put upon the science? A list of all views of the parliamentary party shows that nearly all the DENIERS are Liberals. How could this come about? This is miles away from the average opinion in society. Do they circulate very selective biased views amongst them selves. I think so because of the common statements people like Kroger, Bernardi and Costello make. They are word exact and must be from a similar source. Self indoctrination in a group with little (if any) science credentials.

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1/07/2013Patriciawa Thank you for your kind comment. You have placed the quote from this piece perfectly in a lovely tribute to Julia Gillard. Thank you for the compliment.

TalkTurkey

1/07/2013What a loss to the world. So many Australians make me ashamed. youtube.com/watch?v=mRbt5FC3C-M&feature=youtu.be …

TalkTurkey

1/07/2013Sorry the link doesn't work. Never mind. JasperCarrot I was one of those who offered to take Crapstain up on his 30:1 offer, I'd have put at least a thousand dollars on Labor with Ad astra holding the bet and Crappy went to water instantly. However I do owe him a debt of gratitude because he was the one who pointed out last July that I could get SEVENS on Labor then with Sportsbet, and I stand to do VERY nicely when Labor wins. [i]Holiday-abroad [/i]nicely! Don't let me hear anybody badmouthing Crapstain! :)

nasking

1/07/2013 [b]Remember though that many analysts of polls taken in juxtaposition to the US Presidential election had Romney winning, but Obama won comfortably. The got it badly wrong[/b] Ad, particularly RASMUSSEN POLL: [b]Scott Rasmussen Explains Why His Polls Didn't Foresee an Obama Win[/b] By David Weigel | Posted Wednesday, Nov. 7, 2012, at 9:42 AM COLUMBUS, Ohio—Until late last night, hoping against hope, conservatives clung to their favored data. The average of polls at RealClearPolitics looked lousy for Romney. So did Nate Silver's projections. But Rasmussen Reports, which had consistently seen a fall-off in Democratic party identification, saw a close, winnable race. Romney had surged into a tie in Ohio, a tie in Wisconsin, a two-point lead in Florida, and a small national lead. So what happened? "In general," says Scott Rasmussen, "the projections were pretty good. The two differences I noted were share of white vote falling to 72 percent. That’s what the Obama campaign, to their credit, said all along. We showed it just over 73 percent. [b]Also, youth turnout higher and senior turnout lower than expected. That’s a pretty big deal given the size of the generation gap. I think it showed clearly that the Obama team had a great game plan for identifying their vote and getting it to the polls."[/b] The problem with these polls—which are automated, as opposed to using live callers—was that they missed the correct model of the electorate. "The reality is that there were eight toss-up states," says Rasmussen. "Some people projected Romney would do a couple of points better than the polls and sweep those states. Instead, it was Obama who did a bit better and swept them. I look at the campaign as about fundamentals. Obama job approval on Election Day was 50 percent. That meant there was a good chance he would get 50 percent of the vote. Also, 36 percent said their finances were in good shape. Up from 35 percent the day Obama took office. [b]In other words, the fundamentals were just good enough for the president to keep his job."[/b] http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/11/07/scott_rasmussen_explains_why_his_polls_didn_t_forsee_an_obama_win.html HMMM... THOSE LATINO VOTES HELPED TOO. IT'S A WARNING TO POLLSTERS WHO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE WHITE VOTE...AND IGNORE YOUTH...AND HOW THEY COMMUNICATE. THE REPUBLICANS ARE ONLY JUST WAKING UP TO THE CONSEQUENCES OF TAKING LATINOS FOR GRANTED... AND LETTING CHRISTIAN EXTREMIST RACISTS AND XENOPHOBES AND MISOGYNISTS OUT OF THE LOONY CUPBOARD AND INTO THEIR PARTY AND MEDIA. N'

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1/07/2013nasking Thanks for the information about the US Presidential polling, and particularly the Rasmussen poll. TT I hope you can get the link working - your words make me curious.

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1/07/201342 long I can't imagine Slogan-Abbott stepping aside for Malcolm Turnbull, nor the party pushing that line, but if Abbott sinks the party any further, the Coalition will be facing the dilemma of what to do. Like you, I can't understand the attitude of the likes of Cory Bernardi to global warming. Do you believe there is a party line that he and others follow?

jaycee

1/07/2013What can one say about the "petty bourgeoisie"...except..perhaps ; "Excuse me?"

Bacchus

1/07/2013Try this TT & AA - a very moving tribute to one amazing woman... http://tinyurl.com/kouwplo

TalkTurkey

1/07/2013Ad astra Your lead was wonderful Your replies to every genuine contributor far more so again. One thing though,(and I don't mean to try tell you how to run what is anyway the blog which due to your own input has the most gravitas of all Australian political blogs), I think you should not give plainly-disingenuous insulting anti-hominem s any more of your precious time. You will realize that I long ago desisted from replying to any such, though to my immense amusement I poke snide obliquiniquities at them now and again. And again & again ... Now Ad here's the link I hoped to post. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRbt5FC3C-M&feature=youtu.be So many poignant new posters here today! Watching the Wormtongue Jones Show. Back later.

Truth Seeker

1/07/2013Ad, thanks for another fine piece, and an interesting question. I do think that Murdoch has hedged his bets though with Rudd, as I still believe that Julia Gillard would have won, as Abbott would have no answers for her when the real campaign started, and would have been shown for the sadly lacking policy vacuum that we all know he is. If and when Rudd wins, Murdoch sees a more malleable Labor leader than would otherwise have been the case with Gillard. Maybe it's Murdoch's way of marking his second preference. :-O Cheers :-)

KHTAGH

1/07/2013AA Another great post, pity such good items seem to draw out the trolls like bees to honey. I smell Lieberal panic wafting on the breeze. I love it Mirror ball on O &A tonight was motor mouth of speed, she was in a blind panic.

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1/07/2013TT Thank you for your most kind comments. I can guess the one to whom you are referring. In view of the challenge contained within his comment, I felt a response was warranted. I believe a protracted argument though would not serve a useful purpose. I watched Q&A too. More of that tomorrow. As I’m on dial-up speed at present, I can’t play your YouTube link. I’ll try tomorrow on the iPad once it’s recharged. Bacchus I can’t get your link to load. I’ll try again tomorrow. Truth Seeker Thank you for your kind comment. I would really like to know what Murdoch makes of the move back to Kevin Rudd. If he likes it, he may call off the dogs; if he doesn’t… KHTAGH Thank you too for your complimentary remarks. Sophie showed what she’s made of on Q&A, and the audience saw it!

jane

2/07/2013Thanks to Nas', CU, Ad astra, N'ellie May and Bacchus for your support wrt my M-I-L. Unfortunately, the scan showed that the cancer is bulky and aggressive & the pathology report that it is malignant. She has a bone scan tomorrow to determine if it has taken up residence in her bones which will determine what course of action to take. She has taken it very stoically and with great dignity. Lyn, have read all your links and as always am much better informed than when I started to read them. Thank you as always for your hard work keeping us in the loop. Ad astra, I think you're right when you say that Rupert's orcs will be trawling every dust bin for dirt on Rudd. Whether they will try revisiting the night club story or have a go at the whiteanting is anybody's guess. The whiteanting could be problematic, as it was the msm & the Liars who profited so handsomely from it. We would probably not be having this conversation if Rudd's hubris and childish resentment had been nipped in the bud & instead of trying to topple the government he had worked as tirelessly to ensure it's stability as he did to wreck it. I trust the leash that seems to have been used does its job and he doesn't hang another minister out to dry as he did Garrett.

Bacchus

2/07/2013The link is TT's link AA. Hopefully all will be well once you're back to #Fraudband speeds. Bring on the NBN !

Bridget

2/07/2013Thank you for another thoughtful piece, Ad Astra. I think that Tony Abbott would be right to shake in his boots, but then again, any politician or MP in this country should. From fear of Rupert Murdoch. Because we have just witnessed the power that is wielded by Murdoch, who through his media attack dogs and Newspoll killing machine was able to oust quite possibly one of the best Prime Ministers this country has ever had. Murdoch is the one who controls this great nation of ours. He has more power than the Prime Minister. We've seen how he can remove a Prime Minister if he's not happy with her. He made true the idea that if you control the media in this country, or the majority of it, you control the way that this nation thinks. This to me is what's really going on. I see that everyone's actions is influenced by how Murdoch wields his influence on the media. The public hated Gillard, the Labor party were spooked about Newspoll's results, Rudd gained the confidence to mount leadership challenges and constantly undermine the government, Abbott gained confidence and stepped up his heinous attacks even more on Julia Gillard. All of these could be directly attributed to the influence of Murdoch's media and the encouragement and support that it gave to Gillard's attackers. The fact that the polls that were so damaging to Julia Gillard are now suddenly so favourable towards Rudd, may be a reflection of how the voting public feels about the change in leadership of this country, but let's not forget that this is the same public that has been duped for the past 3 years by the poisonous Murdoch media. Their attitudes are directly influenced by what the media feeds them. So their opinions are not based on facts, not when the MSM reports a skewed representation of the facts in this country (a good article that supports the theory that the media was the main contributor to the demise of Julia Gillard as PM by Denis Muller here http://theconversation.com/ethical-lapses-by-journalists-contributed-to-gillards-demise-15595 And from Independent Australia by Paul Begley here: http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/business/media-2/australias-frayed-fourth-estate1/). No, the question should be why is Murdoch allowing these favourable polls to be published at all? It makes me strongly suspect that there is most definitely a reason as to why the rabid attack dog media have scaled back their attacks on the government. The MSM were relentless in their attacks on this government previously, just how awful this government is, and to me it cannot simply be attributed to their singular dislike of a female Prime Minister - not when all of them were singing the same tune. Exactly the same tune. And of course they knew all along that Gillard was not a bad PM in any way shape or form at all, in fact quite the opposite. They were deliberately peddling lies about her (using the underlying misogyny that exists in the collective psyche perhaps to fuel the public's hate against her). No, what happened to Gillard was simply a deliberate campaign to remove a PM who would not bow down to Murdoch's wishes. (Gillard implementing the NBN, and not allowing the Australia Network to fall into his hands, for instance). Whereas Rudd is more willing to sell his principles for the sake of getting to the top. Rudd was willing to destroy his own party to get to the top. (See how Rudd nearly gave the contract for the Australia Network to Murdoch's Sky News just before he was ousted in 2010 to see that it's not beyond the realms of possibility that Rudd would bestow favours to Murdoch). I'm just saying, Ad Astra sir with all due respect. As an alternative way of looking at the whole situation. We've seen how the media behaved towards Gillard. Can anyone seriously doubt that all of it was due to Murdoch's demands? If you've seen the documentary "Outfoxed" about how Murdoch's Fox News in the US shamelessly spreads lies in the name of truth, and how they pressured all who work within the organization to follow strict rules as to what sort of stories should be published, you'd be left in no doubt that Murdoch would do the same to his media here. The difference is that he owns more than 70% of this country's media, whereas in the US he doesn't control the majority of the media over there, but still his Fox news greatly influenced the other media outlets to the point that they copied what Fox News said (even when Fox News first announced that Bush won the election in 2001, the other stations followed though there was no evidence to support it then, for example). What hope does this country has, when Murdoch owns all of the largest media companies here? So for me, it's not about what the polls are saying, or who the public thinks will be the next PM that truly matters. Because all of that has been SEVERELY compromised now. By none other than Murdoch's MSM. If Rudd is getting an easy run now (oh how that media terrorist has held this country to hostage - get rid of Julia Gillard or I will not give any of any peace!) it's only because Murdoch wishes it to be so. As long as they dance to his tune, he's happy and he won't sic his attack dogs on you. And it must be that Rudd is willing to dance to his tune, and we all know that Tony Abbott writes the lyrics. And Murdoch is at peace, and he gives us peace - for now. So I'm in under no illusion as to who truly does control this country. And it's definitely not any of its own citizens or government. And everyone in Canberra knows that, I'm sure. The really sad thing is that the only leader who had the guts to stand up to him and say no to the democracy thief is now gone. Oh, and she happens to be the only female of the lot, too. Fancy that. Thank you Ad Astra, please accept my apologies for the lengthy comment.

janice

2/07/2013Good morning all. Bridget, you are so right, so abso-bloody-lutely right. Unless and until the citizens of this country find it within themselves to demand media controls (even tighter than those of Canada) we will continue to be run by a pack of journalists who, in turn, are run by a power-crazed billionaire hyena.

lyn

2/07/2013Today’s Links When Wholes Are Less Than Sums of the Parts by @Pollytics As you can see, with Qld coming off a relatively low base at the 2010 election, a 5% swing to the ALP would deliver around 9 seats to Labor in Qld simply because so many LNP held seats sit on relatively small margins. If the same swing occurred in WA it would only deliver 3 seats, in NSW 5 seats. http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2013/07/01/when-wholes-are-less-than-sums/ Noise Vs Signal by @MrDenmore Journalists can say the leadership speculation stories scored strong hits on their websites. But that doesn't measure how many people have switched off altogether. They long for substance, but all they get is junk food. They need signal. But all they hear is noise. Meaningless and inconsequential noise http://thefailedestate.blogspot.com.au/ Morgan Poll shows Labor in front by @independentaus This week’s Morgan Poll, the second since Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister, shows another swing to the ALP. The ALP is now at 51.5% (up 2% since last Wednesday’s snap SMS Morgan Poll), ahead of the L-NP 48.5% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/morgan-poll-shows-labor-in-front/ Morgan Poll: Rudd pushes ALP ahead of L-NP ByRoy Morgan improvement in the ALP’s support clearly puts the pressure on Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, to explain the Coalition’s policies better and put a case for why he should be elected at the coming Federal Election. Particularly important will be the Coalition’s Industrial Relations policies http://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/roy-morgan-research/2013/07/01/1372660748/morgan-poll-rudd-pushes-alp-ahead-l-np Rudd storms the polls by Macro Business The Labor 49-50 two part referred is consistent result is now consistent across four polls. The other three have been summarised by Mark the Ballot:Galaxy means we now have three polls telling much the same story. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/07/rudd-storms-the-polls/ Of crystal balls and tarot cards by @fakeedbutler So now we have a Newspoll saying all sorts of strange things. Giving us a close race again and most importantly doing what these polls are intended to do; create fodder for more news stories. And these same political economists are going to start extrapolating all manner of possible outcomes from it. Obviously, a simple suggestion is to ignore them. http://ausvotes2013.com/2013/07/01/of-crystal-balls-and-tarot-cards/ The Rudd effect by @Piping_Shrike No doubt the experts will be poring over the first set of polls since Rudd’s return, but it’s probably not worth making too much effort. To do so would be to treat the Rudd effect as a “sugar hit”, as though Labor has just been taken over by a movie celeb. It may be that the initial jump in the polls will turn out to be the high point, but http://www.pipingshrike.com/2013/07/the-rudd-effect.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-rudd-effect Who's in the Kevin Rudd ministry? by @1petermartin The team I am announcing today are a strong, smart and experienced group of people who will continue to deliver the great work that this Government is doing. http://www.petermartin.com.au/2013/07/whos-in-kevin-rudd-ministry.html Coalition V Labor policies for women at work: Get informed and get voting by @angelapriestley The National Foundation for Australian Women has just made it easier to compare and contrast what the major parties have planned with its Review of Female Workforce Attachment Policies. The group's working with a number of women's alliances in order to encourage more women to enroll http://www.womensagenda.com.au/talking-about/editor-s-agenda/coalition-v-labor-policies-for-women-at-work-get-informed- Cabinet More Women in Power by @gabriellechan These newly appointed members join existing ministers: Senate Leader and Finance Minister, Penny Wong, Family and Disability Reform Minister, Jenny Macklin, Health Minister Tanya Plibersek, Minister for Early Childhood, Kate Ellis and Multicultural Affairs Minister Kate Lundy. http://thehoopla.com.au/cabinet-women-power/ PM Gillard is gone, PM Rudd is here, what now? let’s stop President Abbott by @turnleft2013 Abbott’s repeated claims about the people choose the Prime Minister3 – not in this country we don’t, it’s a little thing known as the Westminster System, maybe he is confused about the differences between a president and a prime minister. Perhaps someone can tell Tony Abbott what it is http://theaimn.com/2013/07/01/pm-gillard-is-gone-pm-rudd-is-here-what-now-lets-stop-president-abbott/ The Cabinet Deck Gets Yet Another Shuffle by @beneltham One thing Kevin Rudd and his new cabinet do have going for them is that most cherished phenomenon of modern politics: a poll bounce. The latest polls, taken since last Thursday, see Labor back to 49-51 in two-party preferred terms. That's more than competitive. Time will tell whether the honeymoon lasts. But for now, at least, it's game on. http://newmatilda.com/2013/07/01/cabinet-deck-gets-yet-another-shuffle One year with no carbon price wrecking ball by @TheKouk There is no sign of a wrecking ball, a jobs wipe-out, ghost towns or an economic catastrophe if one looks at the hard data and facts that have been available since July 1, 2012. http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/7/1/economy/one-year-no-carbon-price-wrecking-ball#ixzz2XlfqUjnr Sugar do, do, do, do, do, do, oh honey, honey, do, do, do, do, do, do by Gordon This is very encouraging news for the ALP and disturbing news for the Coalition who have spent the last three years establishing a very well detailed, sophisticated and effective campaign strategy only to find a sudden change of battlefield and their canned lines having no real significance to people’s lives anymore. http://gordonsthoughts.wordpress.com/ On which Saturday will Kevin Rudd hold the federal election? by Nicholas Reece don’t forget Australia’s media outlets. They are waiting for tens of millions of dollars in advertising bookings by the political parties. These bookings would have been well advanced for September 14, particularly in prime-time slots. Now the media buyers will be frantically checking availability around the dates below (click to view), while the rest of the country awaits Kevin Rudd’s http://theconversation.com/on-which-saturday-will-kevin-rudd-hold-the-federal-election-15627 “Just the facts, ma’am”: What a citizen should expect from the media by Catalyst Their task is to stand for the interests of the people in scrutinizing the events of the day, fairly and without favour, especially the actions of the government and opposition. I’ve italicised where I believe our media fails us, most especially when it comes to subjecting the opposition to scrutiny http://pbxmastragics.com/2013/07/01/just-the-facts-maam-what-a-citizen-should-expect-from-the-media/ A tribute to Julia Gillard. My latest column in the Australian by @CraigEmersonMP Despite its errors and the challenges of minority government, the Gillard Government will be judged as a true reforming Government. History will be kind to Gillard and future generations will look back with admiration at Australia's first female Prime Minister. https://www.facebook.com/notes/craig-emerson/a-tribute-to-julia-gillard-my-latest-column-in-the- Julia Gillard - A Trail Blazer By Keith Sutherland she was never given a fair go and was undermined by Kevin Rudd supporters and was subjected to the most unjustifiable treatment and disgusting comments which no PM whether male or female should have to endure. http://suthosviews.blogspot.com.au/ I am Julia Gillard by @AmandaARJones we know exactly why we are so offended and disgusted. Julia Gillard’s strength and poise are remarkable and because of this I have learnt that women can survive this just as she has. We can take these attacks, name them, and rise above them http://amandaajones.wordpress.com/2013/07/01/i-am-julia-gillard/?blogsub=confirming#subscribe-blog Slipper case shows media bias by @BarnsGreg It has been former Canberra gallery journalist Margot Kingston and a news site called Independent Australia that has done the job the Canberra gallery refuses to do. http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2013/07/01/382583_opinion.html Carbon Pricing Proves a Success in Australia, but Conservatives Pledge to Kill It by Kelly Rigg Australia's carbon emissions from electricity generation have fallen 7.7%, or 10 million tonnes -- a 10-year low. The country relies mainly on coal for the bulk of its energy but, thanks to the carbon price and a renewable energy target of 20% by 2020, renewable power generation has already increased by almost 30%. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kelly-rigg/carbon-tax-proves-a-succe_b_3518760.html?utm_hp_ref=tw Michaelia Cash's attack: Coalition women take nastiness to a new low by @Drag0nista In what appeared to be a deliberate Coalition strategy since opposition leader Tony Abbott was tarred with a misogynist brush, and one which is based on the deeply flawed logic that a parliamentary attack on a woman by a woman is somehow more acceptable than one by a man, deputy liberal leader Julie Bishop has regularly been wheeled out to attack Gillard http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/01/michaelia-cash-penny-wong-attack Anthony Albanese fights back after Tony Abbott 'C-team' jibe by Lenore Taylor If he wins government, Abbott would have to deal with the size of his front bench before he even begins to consider the understandable ambition for promotion to ministerial ranks of parliamentary secretaries such as Arthur Sinodinos, Jamie Briggs, Simon Birmingham and Tony Smith, not to mention backbenchers such as Kelly O'Dwyer, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/01/albanese-abbott-opposition-front-benchers?CMP=twt_gu What should Kevin Rudd do about climate change policy before the election- by @LarvatusProdeo what Rudd shouldn’t do is anything that can be interpreted as diluting the carbon tax. All the lies Abbott has told about the carbon tax can be used to help build up a picture of an opposition leader that has a chronic honesty problem over a whole range of topics. http://larvatusprodeo.net/archives/2013/07/what-should-kevin-rudd-do-about-climate-change-policy-before-the-election/ Inside Tony Abbott's mind by Waleed Aly All politicians indulge in double standards, but few have done it so unashamedly as Abbott. Examples abound, such as his preparedness to attack Craig Thomson while the allegations against him are before the courts, but his refusal to comment on the Federal Court’s explosive findings against Mal Brough on the flimsy pretext that an appeal might be forthcoming. http://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2013/july/1372600800/waleed-aly/inside-tony-abbotts-mind Tony Abbott Gaffes by @ch150ch http://www.scribd.com/doc/133134121/Tony-Abbott-Gaffes Today’s Front Pages Australian Newspaper Front Pages for 2 July 2013 http://www.thepaperboy.com/australia/front-pages.cfm News headlines http://www.hotheadlines.com.au/

2353

2/07/2013Good article AA - to answer the question, I suspect the next person to be killed off by Newspoll will be Abbott (in favour of Turnbull). The campaign has started already - when Turnbull makes the "preferred Prime Minister" question on Newspoll or Nielsen, you know it's on. Rudd has an interesting dilemma. It seems to be accepted that 14 September will not be the election date. Does he go earlier and "lock in" a race with Abbott without giving him a chance to "tweak" policy, or go later and run the risk of the LNP changing to Turnbull but giving him a chance to "tweak" policy? Jane - lots of good karma being sent your way - hope it helps.

Doug Evans

2/07/2013Ad Astra I’m suddenly tired so I’ll try to be brief. As I understand it your position is: 1. Polls are highly unreliable as predictive tools. You said: “For a long while now, Newspoll, and indeed most of the other polls of voting preference and personal approval, have carried importance they do not deserve. Pollster Peter Lewis of Essential Vision tells us: "A poll never predicts the future. Anyone who says they know what the future holds is deluded". Aggregated polls that show trends are more useful though. 2. The unscrupulous MSM having consistently vilified Julia Gillard has effectively manufactured bad polls for her and her government and has persisted in misusing polls to predict electoral disaster for her government. You said: “Despite the doubts professional pollsters have expressed about the validity and reliability of opinion polls, media commentators have used them over and again to predict electoral disaster for Labor” 3. Politicians who should know better have based decisions about important issues such as who should be leader on poor polls. First Rudd and then Gillard were cut down by polls effectively manufactured by the media. You said: “Politicians have lapped up what they have said and have used their predictions to make some of the most drastic decisions imaginable, such as changing leaders.” OK Number one: Polls are by no means always inaccurate as predictors of the future. They are in fact quite good at it. Pollsters like Possum Comitatus and William Bowes have showed this. Your qualifier that aggregated polls ‘are more useful’ and polls close to the election are better hardly conveys their overall effectiveness. I presented you with well-qualified opinion contradicting your position but you ignored it. Number Two: Well yes you are right the Murdoch Press and others have misused polls in pursuit of their own selfish ends. But when you get off the front page they (well Fairfax and the ABC at least) also regularly make responsible use of political poll material to draw perfectly reasonable conclusions about the likely future. Number Three: The removal of Rudd and the removal of Gillard were generated out of quite different circumstances. Rudd who has no factional power base was only tolerated by the Party machine as long as his polls held up. He was openly contemptuous of the factions advocating their removal. With his parliamentary colleagues increasingly disturbed by his autocratic management style and the dysfunctionality of the PMO, the right wing factions marshalled by Shorten, Arbib and Feeney and their main union support in the AWU saw their chance to put an upstart in his place and using the technique used many times recently in NSW State Labor, by the dominant Right faction, turned on Rudd and arranged for his dumping. Polls were (as was widely discussed at the time) an after the fact excuse for what they wanted to do anyway. With regards Gillard, anointed by the Labor Right, the polls were pivotal in her dismissal but they were unequivocal, had been for about two years and ultimately the polls that mattered were the private polls conducted by the Party itself – not the media based polls we follow so avidly (or not). So your analysis is somewhat flawed. Rudd was executed not for his poor polls, which were hardly disastrous anyway but for his appalling management and poor relationship with the ultimate source of power within the ALP the factions in this case specifically Labor Unity and the NSW Right. Gillard was removed because the polls had consistently predicted – over more than two years that her leadership would lead Labor off the cliff politically speaking. Labor’s own internal polling not more than two months out from the announced election date – the details of which were not made available to the media – was apparently even more dire. Politicians interpreted quite reasonably that the choice was between electoral oblivion and reinstating Rudd – a damned if you do and damned if you don’t choice if ever there was one. I have no opinion as to which choice was the better. So polls were not decisive in Rudd’s dismissal and were quite reasonably used as an indicator of likely election outcome in Gillard’s case. This of course does not excuse the role of the MSM in creating the climate of opinion that resulted in the polls that felled Gillard. But what’s done is done and politicians must deal with the world as they find it not as it should be. You said: “Why have the polls, which have precipitated this crisis, been so consistently poor for Labor and Julia Gillard? The answer hides beneath another layer. Let’s peel it back.” Of course underneath you found the MSM scheming away. However the rather big factor you overlooked was the impact on Gillard’s career of the Union organized coup that brought her to power. Whatever the MSM did or didn’t do there was a very large chunk of the electorate that never forgave the Party machine for cutting down the Prime Minister they considered they had elected. Gillard was severely hampered even doomed from the start by the manner of her ascension to power. This has also been quite widely canvassed both online and in the MSM. So again a partial analysis based on a selection of the facts leads to a distorted conclusion. Gratuitous: Uncalled for; lacking good reason; unwarranted. I thought I had presented some ‘evidence’ (in the form of well qualified opinions that contradict one of your basic tenets) for my criticisms of this piece (which you ignored as usual). As such my comments can't really be called gratuitous. Irritating? Quite possibly. Offensive? depends on how easily offended one is but again quite possibly. I do not ‘impugn’ your motives. The comments of mine that you highlight are directed entirely at what you have written. I have no opinion about your motives in doing so. You find my use of capitals unnecessarily strident. I find the great swathes of morally indignant purple prose with which you pepper your piece equally so. Now and finally. I have been trying to interest what I hoped (apparently incorrectly) was a progressive political blogger and his large group of readers in a discussion about what is to be done that goes a bit beyond the ritual castigation of the MSM and the disgusting LNP opposition. I thought I would have one last go with this exchange but I should have seen the writing on the wall after our exchange following your next but last piece on the Purpose of Political Blogs. You actually made your position quite clear when you wrote: “I will not add to the hypercritical attacks on our PM or her Government. There are plenty of assassins out there already doing that in a concerted effort to annihilate her politically. The rational discussion you recommend would be suitable if politics was operating rationally now. It’s not – the parties are in hand-to-hand combat in a fight to the death. You only have to read the radical policy positions and the venomous personal abuse of some who comment here to realize that. We have to decide whose side we are on, and fight for it. I made that decision long ago.” You confuse criticism with disloyalty. You confuse loyalty to a political party with loyalty to principles and ideas. They might coincide but nothing is certain in life is it? Slightly restated your position can be summarized as: “When there is so much deliberate distortion and so many lies aimed at the political party of my choice I believe the right thing to do is to respond with a bit of counter-propaganda.” How is this better than our current MSM ? Isn’t the Fifth Estate supposed to be the beacon in this fog of disinformation? I won’t trouble you further.

Ad astra

2/07/2013LYN'S DAILY LINKS updated: http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/page/LYNS-DAILY-LINKS.aspx

Pappinbarra Fox

2/07/2013Bridget very interesting comments and that worry about the length. You said : [quote]It makes me strongly suspect that there is most definitely a reason as to why the rabid attack dog media have scaled back their attacks on the government.[/quote] I think the answer comes in three simple words. [quote]Don't write crap.[/quote] Those three words or 4 for the pedants really got under the skin of the Murdoch journalists and probably others as well. They got under the skin because they were so true. And it's amazing how the shortest and perhaps even most facetious barb can strike home and arouse the anger and contempt that would otherwise be suppressed and remain lurking beneath the surface, of narrow minded journos who believe that god put them on the planet to tell us how to think. Julia spoke the truth. And that was unforgivable. Kevin speaks to spin and anything that is spun can be re-spun and that is much more amenable to the Murdoch journalists’ way of thinking. However, I think you should give it some time before you jump to the conclusion that the MSM are giving the new labour government an easier ride than they had previously given. Maybe they are catching their collective breaths and once regrouped will lay waste to Kevin's version of the ALP government as readily as they lay waste to Julia's version. I think one thing I can say with some certainty is that they will not lay waste to LOTO. Unless it becomes clear that the Lotto (one chance in 47 million of getting anything right!) is not going to win the next election, in which case they may opt for a more malleable leader, someone they have more control over and may manipulate more readily but who will, most importantly, win the next election. I doubt that is Turnbull. Although I notice that Turnbull has been manipulated by LOTO in respect of the NBN. Whichever way it goes Murdoch's main aim of buying out the NBN to save his Foxtel profits has been enhanced by the recent changes. Janice lovely line: [quote]power crazed billionaire hyena[/quote].

Pappinbarra Fox

2/07/2013Should have read don't worry about the length

Ad astra

2/07/2013Doug Evans Judging from our previous exchanges, as I completed my long response to your long post of yesterday, I suspected you would want to have the last word on the subject of polls, and so you have this morning. Since we are probably the only ones reading each other’s words, and since we are unlikely to reach agreement on this matter, there seems no point, as you suggest, in troubling each other any further.

Ad astra

2/07/2013jane Your many friends here at [i]TPS[/i] are thinking of you and your mother-in-law at this troubling time.

Austin 3:16

2/07/2013Firstly I think Gillard was at a disadvantage being a woman. The notion that women as a group are distinctly less trustworthy is something of a cultural meme within western society. As such I think the electorate judged Gillard more harshly for her stumbles than they would have a male PM. However you can't really say that her reign was without stumble.

Austin 3:16

2/07/2013Hi Doug, Re polls as a predictor - Nate Silver in the USA recently showed us just how good polls can be as a predictive tool.

Ad astra

2/07/2013Bridget Thank you for your comprehensive assessment of the role of the media in the political process. I have no doubt that Murdoch’s influence is profound, and not just here in Australia. This has been documented in the several books that have been written about him. Here, [i]Newspoll[/i] is his creature and he uses it for his political purposes. It gives his journalists the ammunition to shoot at the Government; we have seen Dennis Shanahan do so time and again. I agree with janice that we need better media regulation in this country; the Finkelstein and Convergence reviews suggested how this might be done. It was resisted with a fury that reflects how determined is the media, particularly News Limited, to maintain its influential position without restraint. In Canada, where there are legal impediments to the transmission of untruths via the media, Fox News does not have a place, for obvious reasons.

Ad astra

2/07/20132353 Thank you for your comment. Slogan-Abbott will be looking over his shoulder every time Malcolm Turnbull comes out as preferred Coalition leader in the polls, especially as he sinks below Kevin Rudd in the PPM stakes. It will be interesting to see how Rudd manages the election date dilemma. My guess, and its only a guess, is that he will recall parliament to enact some legislative changes to negate some of Abbott’s ‘slogan policies’, and go to the election mid October.

Ken

2/07/2013Doug Just a couple of quick comments. To me, it appears you are guilty of what you accuse Ad of - ignoring, or at least not taking into account, "facts" that do not fit your argument. The fact is that polls by defninition are not good predictors of political outcomes. The margin of error of most polls varies between 1.5% and 5% dependent on the sample size (the major political polls are usually around 2-3%). As Possums current post shows, a difference of only 1% can make a significant difference in terms of seat numbers. There is little doubt that the polls are likely to be within 1-2% of the actual vote (within the margin of error) but that 1-2% can win or lose an election - seats in the HoR. So by definition, the poll cannot accurately predict seat numbers and, therefore, the final outcome of the election. The trend is more important but still likely to be within that 1-2% margin. So, in this sense, you and Ad are both right and both wrong. As in all things, it depends how one decides to view it.

Ad astra

2/07/2013Ken Thank you for your clarifying comment. Lyn has a great collection of links to articles on polls this morning that I am working through. Because I’m currently on dial-up speed, having exceeded my ADSL usage allowance, I am still waiting for Possum’s piece to load. To me, he is the very best statistical analyst of polls.

Ad astra

2/07/2013Austin 3:16 Nate Silver was making predictions right up to the cusp of the US Presidential election. His methodology proved to be correct. It was all the others who were predicting a Romney victory with certainty, even as the results were coming in, who stuffed up. Silver’s analysis of how the states would fall was superior.

Ad astra

2/07/2013PF Thank you for your thoughtful comment. I guess we will soon know whether Murdoch will reach rapprochement with Kevin Rudd and support him, or at least not attack him so viciously as he did Julia Gillard, or whether he will resume his virulent attacks on Labor. Whatever he does, it will be to serve his commercial interests.

Austin 3:16

2/07/2013Hey Ad, Yeah and Silver was using opinion polls as the basis for his analysis. He was definitely a pollster not a pundit

Janet (jan@j4gypsy)

2/07/2013Hi all, and my apologies for being yet again absent, especially re providing some Twitter-yacking. Tragedy in family and my being on the road again unexpectedly is impacting on anything can contribute for a while. But am presuming that you have caught up with this? [i]"Rudd now has ALP in prime position to win Federal Election. ALP 51.5% (up 2%) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 2%)"[/i] http://www.roymorgan.com/

Ad astra

2/07/2013Janet Welcome back. Sorry to hear about your family tragedy. Our thoughts are with you.

Pappinbarra Fox

2/07/2013AD A at 11.06 aint that the truth

Catching up

2/07/2013No Tom, in no way galling. Why should it be. So according to ypu, being deposed is a sign that one has failed. Then what can one make of the fact that Howard, after a lifetime as a MP, twelve years as PM, was sent on his way, by the voters. He lst not only his government but his seat. That, by your necking, make his a complete failure. Now we have PM Gillard, deposed not by the voters but polls. A PM who appears to have achieved in her short years in parliament. Yes, and one term as PM. Gillard came into politics in 1994, I believe. Tom, history will treat her, as they have done Whitlam and Keating before her. Yes, when the noise and allegations fade away, all is left is what has been achieved. That is what history judges. Now for Howard, in spite of his long years, in Parliament, what will history make of him. What we are seeing, is how democracy operates in this modern world. Some might not like it, but it is reality. Yes, it appears the majority take very little interest in politics. Like many with art. They have very little interest, but they know what they like and dislike. Many took to Rudd,, I believe because in their eyes, he did not talk politics, bit related to them. Do not agree, but that is my problem, not theirs. These same people do not understand why he was removed by the Labor caucus.They believe their man was not treated fair, and no matter what, they were not having it. Politics, as it always has been, is not based odf fairness, it has always been a dirty game. No, the PM has ot failed as PM. Yes, she has failed to win the populArity contest. At the end of the day, politics is the art of the possible. Ms Julia Gillard just had to many to fight againsdt. If Rudd has accepted the cuascus decision, and acted on behalf of the good of the party, and country. No good crying about that, as that is past and cannot change. THe question is can Rudd deliever. Maybe years, maybe no. He can probably deliver government for Labor, wit a mess down the track to be sorted out. Maybe the likes of Albanese can control him, giving us vey good governance indeed., It will depend on how much Rudd wants to stay in the position, and the price he is willing to pay. To continue as PM, it is a price that he will have to pay. After all we only elect in one MP, who has our mandate to act on our behalf. Yes, government is a collective action, not that of the leader only. It says leader, not dictator.

Catching up

2/07/2013Not sure if what we are seeing is a sugar hit. I say this, that Rudd supporters, no matter the politics since he was deposed by his caucus because of their lack of confidence in him, have struck by him the whole time. They wanted no tack with Gillard or what they seen as her government. On the other hand, they have no liking for Abbott either. Abbott has been as unloved in the polls, as Gillard has been. Yes, the Opposition has been leading in the polls, but I suspect more because it has nothing to do with Gillard, than liking for the Opposition, or because the support Abbott. I suspect that many support Rudd, because they see him as their man. Not interested in policies of politics. The support has held through thick and thin. This I believe is why Gillard has handed over in such a graceful manner. Yes, if Rudd had walked away, I believe Gillard would be far out in front. No reason why she should not be. Yes, the media has made good use of the Rudd factor. At the end of the day, this is politics. It is what makes politics so interesting to follow. We have been at this place many times since the end of WWW2. Each time, a new Labor party has arisen. There does not appear to be any Blueberry rules for the game. Politics is forever changing. No, I believe that PM Gillard did deliver all she set out to do. I believe that PM Gillard has left Australia in a better place. I believe that Abbott will only wreck the country, and take us back to the dark past. See no evidence that he even understands the problems that this nation faces, and believe me, their are many. At the beginning of last century, we went from horse and buggy to the era of machaical means of moving and producing. It serves us well for most of the century, developing along the way. We have entered this century, into the digital and cyber space. We have moved into an era, where the world has become much smaller, and most things are global, not confided to national borders. The significance of borders, is fast receding. it is a global economy, and work place we are not in., Yes, a completely new world. I had this belief, that no generation would see the changes that my father born in 1900, dying in 1997 would see. I was wrong, my generation has witness greater change. Wonder what my kids, grand and great grand kids will witness. Today, our modern factories, have very few, unskilled workers on the floor. Not needed. No, education and a highly trained workforce, one that can change overnight, is essential. This belief, I believe has underline d all that Gillard set out to do. What she has laid the groundwork for. Yes, a democracy can choose Rudd. That is there right. Many that are interested, can ensure he heads in the right direction. This I believe Rudd will do. He is still a very clever man, I do not believe that is in dispute. He is also a man, I believe is seeking glory. That can be used to advantage.

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2/07/2013Janet While the current polls will please Labor supporters, we should not get ahead of ourselves. They cannot predict the result of the election, but if the new trend continues to the election, rather than being just a 'sugar hit', as some suggest it will be, that will be more indicative. What is more pleasing to contemplate is the anxiety the polls are bound to be creating in Coalition circles, and in Slogan-Abbott's mind. Lyn has great collection of links to articles on polls in Today's Links. Possum is always worth reading and Ed Butler's piece is a great commentary on polls. He concludes: [i]"So everyone should refrain from predicting what will happen. There’s plenty to talk about every other day that we really don’t need to be percolating in hypotheticals. And more importantly, when someone – anyone – shares their thoughts about what is going to happen in Australian politics over the next few months, you’re best off ignoring them. Their guess is literally as good as yours.[/i]"

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2/07/2013Catching up Thank you for your comprehensive comments. I agree with your words: "[i]...I believe that PM Gillard did deliver all she set out to do. I believe that PM Gillard has left Australia in a better place. "I believe that Abbott will only wreck the country, and take us back to the dark past. See no evidence that he even understands the problems that this nation faces, and believe me, their are many."[/i] We must do all we can to avert this tragedy.

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2/07/2013Hi Lyn After an in and out day, I’ve now completed your links. You have given us such a rich collection, with a big emphasis on polls, all very informative. Thank you for feeding us so well.

TalkTurkey

2/07/2013VIVA *J*U*L*I*A*! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ00XIxx7N0

Ken

2/07/2013Ad and Austin 3:16 re Nate Silver If you trawl back through Possum's posts just after the Presidential election, you should find a comment where he explains why one cannot "do a Silver" in Australia. As I recall off the top of my head, it was to do with the fact that we don't have sufficiently large enough samples at the State level, nor do we have them frequently enough.

TalkTurkey

2/07/2013"SLIPPER CASE SHOWS MEDIA BIAS" http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2013/07/01/382583_opinion.html Comrades this is a great wrong that must be righted, Slipper and Thomson must be exonerated, Brough Hockey Ashby Pyne Doane and many more must be PUNISHED HARD! [b]POLICE ARE COMPLICIT IN BOTH CASES![/b]

Austin 3:16

2/07/2013Hey Ken, Had a quick look - can't see it.

TalkTurkey

3/07/2013Good Morning Lynnie I'm sure you are up doing your Links for us, pitch dark outside as usual when you start, Thank you as always and I hope all is well with you and that you and Mr L-G are loving your new house. Cheers to all your many readers here and your thousands of followers on Twitter. Even those who don't say Thanks, you know they appreciate your staunch efforts. Perhaps after we win this election with no pressure any more you may get a lie-in in the mornings. Cheers All.

lyn

3/07/2013Today’s Links Is Murdoch set to abandon Abbott? by @ngungun For years, Tony Abbott has been able to rely on the heavy backing of the Murdoch press, but has the Rudd revival shattered this core plank of Abbott’s election campaign http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/is-murdoch-set-to-abandon-abbott/ “If the facts don’t fit a frame, the frame stays and the facts bounce off” by Gordon If the Coalition attempt to try and play their game of “let’s all feel sorry for Julia because she was knifed by the faceless men and that evil Kevin Rudd” they will be paddling viciously upstream because first they have to deal with the fact that they will be contradicting the three year period they have spent deriding and destroying her leadership http://gordonsthoughts.wordpress.com/2013/07/01/if-the-facts-dont-fit-a-frame-the-frame-stays-and-the-facts-bounce-off/ Fact checking Tony Abbott by @JohnQuiggin2 Until recently, the perception that the government was untrustworthy and deceitful[1] allowed Abbott to get away with just about anything he said, and he took full advantage of this. Now his record is littered with obvious lies and he’s finding it hard to break the habit. Worse still, the post-truth state of the political right, in Australia and the US, makes it hard http://johnquiggin.com/2013/07/02/fact-checking-tony-abbott/ Tony Abbott's paid parental leave policy: high cost, low benefit by@GrogsGamut Given how inexorably linked this particular policy is with Tony Abbott, and given Andrew Robb stated in May that it was “fully funded”, it might be time we started seeing the costings. At present, analysis of the policy finds it lacking on both the costs and the benefits. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/grogonomics/2013/jul/02/abbott-paid-parental-leave-cost Fairness of political reporting a toss-up, as Press Gallery numbers wane and news cycle quickens, survey finds - by Gay Alcorn Almost half of the Federal Parliamentary Press Gallery reporters and photographers who responded to a survey conducted by The Citizen said that coverage of federal politics was unfair. http://www.thecitizen.org.au/news/fairness-political-reporting-toss-press-gallery-numbers-wane-and-news-cycle-quickens-survey Husic’s oath a cause for celebration, not abuse by @crazyjane13 We should celebrate the fact that Husic felt he could show his commitment to serving us by taking the oath on his religion’s holy book, as we should celebrate others who take affirmations or swear on other sacred texts. http://consciencevote.com.au/2013/07/02/husics-oath-a-cause-for-celebration-not-abuse/ Haters are going to hate: The latest round of xenophobia in Australia by @Mothincarnate Mr Husic is a Muslim. Would any of the haters like to take an oath over the Koran? I suspect not. So why should Ed do so over the Bible? Would anyone seriously think that an oath in the sight of the “wrong” religion would be of value to oath-taker in relation to their religious commitment? http://newanthropocene.wordpress.com/2013/07/02/haters-are-going-to-hate-the-latest-round-of-xenophobia-in-australia/ Tony Abbott's policy gap: what's on the Coalition's 'figure it out later' list by Lenore Taylor We are spending a lot of time talking about Kevin. But we also need to talk about Tony’s policies – the ones we know about, but particularly the ones we don’t know about, and probably won’t when we cast a vote. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/series/lenore-taylor-on-politics Sophies Choice by @madwixxy Sophie Mirabella, one of the fastest to make personal attacks on political opponents, no matter how sensitive the issue. Secondly, Sophie has breached electoral laws. Any donation over $1,500 must be declared, Sophie took well in advance of 60 times that amount and did not declare it, http://wixxyleaks.com/2011/10/03/sophies-choice/ The Tale of Two Parties by @rattangreen To recover from this period of self destruction members will have to take heed of this simple instruction; accept the majority decision, forget all other allegiances, and get on with the job of defeating the real enemy, the Catholic Conservatives sitting on the opposite side of the Chamber http://rattangreen.aussieblogs.com.au/2013/07/02/the-tale-of-two-parties/ A dog that’s had its day by @MigloMT A man who the major credit agencies and the IMF have identified as Australia’s ‘Spend thrift’ Prime Minister: the most excessive and reckless manager of Australia’s finances in living memory. He lavished taxpayer dollars on his own interests, http://theaimn.com/2013/07/02/a-dog-thats-had-its-day/ Will there be a battle for Bennelong? @preciouspress Psephologist Antony Green says that Bennelong “is a representative slice of Australia; it’s a particularly representative slice of Sydney. It straddles that boundary between the Liberal-voting North Shore and the Labor-voting western suburbs.” http://nofibs.com.au/2013/07/01/preciouspress-gives-his-local-insights-into-the-seat-of-bennelong/ the difference between popular perceptions, and the reality of the political system by @AusVotes2013 You vote for the Prime Minister directly; you pick the leader of the country. That is a lie. You don’t vote for the Prime Minister directly; you never have. That is the truth. http://ausvotes2013.com/2013/07/02/at-10-oclock-tonight/ Gillard's Place In The Labor Pantheon by @beneltham she never succeeded in controlling the political agenda for long enough to ease the pressure from Tony Abbott. In the modern environment, polls are what count, and as long as Labor languished in negative territory, Gillard's leadership was always under pressure. http://newmatilda.com//2013/07/02/gillards-place-labor-pantheon Election - The TV Show by SineadMcfly Hey ladies – meet Tony Abbott. He struts around campus like he’s the man, and let’s face it, ISN’T HE JUST? He wins over the cheer-leading squad by saying they don’t really have the right to “withhold sex”, finds gay people “threatening” and thinks the Aboriginal population should be thankful for the British occupation of Australia. No wonder he’s so popular! http://www.thevine.com.au/life/news/election-the-tv-show-2/ For once I agree with Andrew Bolt by @MigloMT I disagree with his views and I would argue that they are based on ignorance, with a sprinkle of ‘hate for the left’ thrown in for good measure.I find that he hardly writes about anything without resorting to his legendary ‘left bashing’. http://cafewhispers.wordpress.com/2013/07/02/for-once-i-agree-with-andrew-bolt/ Rudd needs to seize the moment on climate by Steve O'Connor Furthermore, it may put a spotlight on the limitations of Abbott’s scientifically-shaky “Direct Action” plan, a policy that even Malcolm Turnbull has called “bullshit”. http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/rudd-needs-to-seize-the-moment-on-climate-63702 FactCheck: are asylum seekers really economic refugees? by @ConversationEDU As signatories to the 1951 Refugee Convention, we have an obligation to hear – without prejudice – the testimony of each asylum seeker before presuming that their claim for refugee status is not valid because of their nationality or ethnic origin. https://theconversation.com/factcheck-are-asylum-seekers-really-economic-refugees-15601 Newman is once more pointing the way! by Truth Seeker While my anger was still simmering away, as a result of the announcement of their pay rise of around $1,000 per week, when they are telling us that they are so hard up that they can’t provide security of services and maintain staffing levels for front line services, my mother rang me with some distressing news for them http://truthseekersmusings.wordpress.com/2013/07/02/newman-is-once-more-pointing-the-way/ NBN Co “in crisis”, Turnbull tells Albanese: Answers needed immediately by @renailemay Let’s not forget that Albanese is not, as Conroy was, only the Communications Minister. Albanese is also the Deputy Prime Minister, and so technically on a substantially higher level of importance than Turnbull, with much wider portfolio responsibilities. It wouldn’t be seemly for him to get too involved in slagging the the Duke of Double Bay. http://delimiter.com.au/2013/07/01/nbn-co-in-crisis-turnbull-tells-albanese-answers-needed-immediately/ Today’s Front Pages Australian Newspaper Front Pages for 3 July 2013 http://www.thepaperboy.com/australia/front-pages.cfm News headlines http://www.hotheadlines.com.au/

lyn

3/07/2013Good Morning Talk Turkey, That is so nice of you to write such a lovely post to me so early in the morning, “Thankyou “ & cheers back to you. Yes it is dark when I start work in the morning 5am mostly. You know after all this is over I still won’t stay in bed, I will just find something else to do. We get to stay in bed long enough when our life comes to an end, no siree’ I’m not staying in bed. If you get time read Gordon’s thoughts in “Today’s Links”, I love where he says [i]The more they yell, shout and scream the sort of lines they have all parroted verbatim over the last three years, the more they will be building Kevin Rudd’s reputation, authority, credibility and approval from the community.[/i] :):):)

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3/07/2013LYN'S DAILY LINKS updated: http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/page/LYNS-DAILY-LINKS.aspx

Ken

3/07/2013Austin 3:16 If the link below works it will take you to Possum's comment about the problems trying to "do a Silver" in Australia. It is just a footnote at the end of his "Trends, the Horserace & Random Numbers" post. http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2012/11/11/trends-the-horserace-and-random-numbers/

lyn

3/07/2013Good Morning Ad, Thankyou to you for your very special comment to me @ 6.08pm last night also mentions throughout the day, you make my job worthwhile. Ad Astra you are a person with so many splendid attributes. Jane left me a lovely comment as well, thankyou Jane. I am so sorry to hear of illness in your family, our good wishes go to you. Here is a new blog Your chance to put questions to the Opposition by @goaskabbott [b]If the media won’t hold the opposition to account, it’s up to ordinary citizens like us.[/b] http://goaskabbott.com/ :):):)

Austin 3:16

3/07/2013Hey again Ken, Funnily enough if you read Possum's latest http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2013/07/01/when-wholes-are-less-than-sums-of-the-parts/ He tells us that [quote]Both the Morgan SMS and ReachTEL polls had large sample sizes (5548 combined) and fortuitously we have the state breakdowns for each, allowing us to get a decent handle on the dynamics playing out at the State level.[/quote] He comes to an interesting conclusion based on those figures too

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3/07/2013Talk Turkey Thank you for your lovely tribute to our dear Lyn. Imagine what the hundreds that come here every day to read Lyn’s ‘Today’s Links’ would have to do were they not there early each morning for them to peruse. We would all need to have our own list of websites to trawl through to find relevant items. Not only does Lyn identify these items and list the title, author, source and link, she adds a few lines to inform us what the item is about. This is extremely valuable as it immediately gives us an idea of what to expect in the item. To do this, Lyn has to read the item through and select the key sentences that capture its essence. This requires perspicacity and wisdom. Lyn’s skill in doing this is exceptional. Thank you Lyn for the magnificent contribution you make to [i]TPS[/i] day after day, month after month, and the devotion you have to [i]TPS[/i] and all who visit here. Lyn, you are brilliant. Good Morning Lyn The comment above is especially for you. Thank you for your comment and for the new website that makes it easy to tweet or email Tony Abbott and Coalition members with questions that need an answer well before the election. I hope [i]TPS[/i] users will use this again and again. Let’s blitz them.

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3/07/2013Hi Lyn [b]'Go Ask Abbott' is so easy to use. I sent five emails to Opposition members in less than five minutes. What a magnificent way to direct questions to the Coalition. I urge all who blog here to use it, and often. http://goaskabbott.com [/b]

Austin 3:16

3/07/2013Hey Ken, Thanks for the link - it doesn't appear quite so black and white. The reachTel methodology could prove useful as long as it's reliable.

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3/07/2013Folks We are getting on the road soon to return to the south coast. I’ll be back this evening.

TalkTurkey

3/07/2013Lyn and Ad I love you both TPS is one of the best things that ever happened to me. Sure, because of all the other contributors too, but you two are what has made this site unique and so very special. It is a noble project, words fail me to tell you how much I think of this site and what you two achieve on a daily basis. TPS has kept my spirits up ever since the last election, inspired me to write my best, assured us all that we are not alone ... Thank you. Bad reCaptcha though!... things forHun ! Hope not! :)

Heather

3/07/2013Fairfax has been infiltrated by the right wing facist element, and vicious people they are too. The Age Editor mentioned one name. I know him personally, and he's not a good sort. Holden seems to hold him in high respect. They just ran a poll on SMH and closed it after 6 votes, would you believe! There is definitely a mad dumbing down going on around the country. Latest in SMH was that Rudd is a narcissist. One person tweeted "I need a PhD before I legally assess personality disorder. Journalists do it publicly w/out a letter to their name." They look like they have their claws out for Kevin Rudd at the moment. Let's hope that good will prevail.

Ken

3/07/2013Austin 3:16 I follow Possum and read his latest post yesterday. Yes, he had some good data to work on this time but as he indicated in the earlier comment about Silver, we don't get such figures often enough - at least not this far out from an election - perhaps they become more frequent closer to the election. Also a comment I made to Doug [July 2. 2013 10:08 AM] about the margin of error in polls is relevant. Possum by aggregating polls the way he does gains a larger sample and reduces the margin of error. I agree with Ad that he is one of the best statistical commentators.

Austin 3:16

3/07/2013Hey Ken, [quote]Possum by aggregating polls the way he does gains a larger sample and reduces the margin of error[/quote] Yeah but that's the nature of polls. And the aggregations being done by lots of commentators other than Possum, just not on such a rigorous basis (mostly)

lyn

3/07/2013Hi Ad . Ad Astra 09:58 AM Thankyou so much, what a gorgeous lovely post for me, you have “Made my Day “ I went to “Go Ask Abbott” and sent 4 emails. I agree Ad, so user friendly, what a brilliant setup. I will be emailing each day until all suggested (& more) questions are asked. http://goaskabbott.com/

42 long

3/07/2013Do they actually get answered? How was this set up.? I would love to know more.

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3/07/2013Hi Lyn We are back at the south coast. I managed to catch up with your links in a waiting room on the way. They were very informative, as usual. Thank you. I'm calling it a day.

TalkTurkey

3/07/2013Yesterday in unrelated exchanges on Twitter I crossed swords with those noted Leftist stalwarts George Megalogenis and Phillip Adams ! I must be doing something right! :) Megalogenis I respected until a couple of weeks before the last election, when he appeared alongside Laura Tingle in an interview with someone-I-don't-remember-who-(but-it-matters-not.) At a critical moment in the interview and in the campaign, with LT defending *J*U*L*I*A* and giving the lie to the vile attacks on her, Megalogenis utterly wimped out, as I commented in verse not long after the election. I think it was utterly despicable, yellow-bellied and shameful, and I believe it would have had a significant effect on the electorate had he shown any intellectual honesty. He wimped out, plainly, because he was not prepared to front his boss Murdoch's ire had he spoken true. Here's some of the verses from that big pome, [i]The Lass at Yarralumla[/i] [You may see the whole ballad by going to the Archive at the top of this page, scrolling down to [b]October 11 2010 ("Grog, do come back we need you") and then scroll down to the Comments, to Oct 12 at 10.42AM.[/b] I do think it was pretty prescient if I say so myself. Check the journos I named against the way they have behaved ever since!] Then from the Murdoch stables all the hustlers made their run: They were breathing fire and brimstone every breath: That Labor’s illegitimate, that Abbott’s mob had won, And that any tryst with Brown and Greens was Death. Bloated with his self-importance was conniving Laurie Oakes, And Piers Ackermann, most bigoted of all, And the first one to throw stones, that loathsome, hateful Alan Jones: They’re three key bricks in the Murdochratic Wall. There was Andrew “Anal” Bolt , and that Glenn Milne, the drunken thug, Grabbing sleazily at any sleazy grab, And that ABC lickspittle, Chris Uhlmann, smooth and smug, And Annabel, the slyly-sidling Crabb. There was sour Red Kez O’Brien, seemingly forever trying To skewer Julia with some cunning stab; And Tony “Look-Me” Jones, interrupting her in tones That show he thinks he holds sole Royal Right of Gab. There was Fran "Ms Jelly” Kelly, Michelle Grattan lacking teeth, And Miss Trivia, Virginia Trioli, And that smartarse Barrie Cassidy, with snide asides and acidy, In ABC alliances unholy. So Our Ranga Lass was targeted by jibes and sexist jokes: Her Titian locks were tweaked, her finely-chiselled nose took pokes From [b]those of the moral wee-ness of a teensy flaccid penis – And unkindest cut of all came from that wimp-out by Megalogenis! [/b] Thus was Julia besieged: just Laura Tingle stood her friend, And challenged Abbott on her comments page; In chivalry and courage she was loyal to the end: The one fair Australian journo of The Age. (It goes on. It is quite an accurate history, and reading it will take you down Memory Lane. A bit melancholily though I regret to say since *J*U*L*I*A* is no longer the Lass at Yarralumla.) Anyway last night the real Joe Hockey Tweeted Joe Hockey ‏@JoeHockey 2 Jul Criticism of Ed Husic on the basis of his faith is repugnant and unacceptable. Aussies are much better than that. (This btw prompted this from Juanita Hardy ‏@Pikiran2ku 2 Jul @GMegalogenis @TalkyTurkey @JoeHockey Joe's right but gross hypocrisy from man whose party capitalises on xenophobia & promotes fear. Which is true. Anyway I tweeted Joe Hockey saying [i]Pity you didn't drown yourself when you had the chance![/i] Joe didn't get back to me, but Megalogenis did, saying [i]Why don't you unfollow me, I'm with Joe Hockey on this.[/i] So I said [i]I've never unfollowed anyone and I'm not about to start with YOU! Drown yself if want 2B with Hockey. He started this.[/i] GM wrote back: Charming! and retweeted my own tweet thinking it would make me feel bad! But Ashley Leahy came to my support! @TalkyTurkey @GMegalogenis What about Hockey's charming drowning words about Rudd? So I've retweeted the whole conversation, including that couple of lines in bold about Mega in The Lass From Yarralumla. 'course George (being religious I assume without knowing, probly Greek Orthodox), probly feels empathy with Husic on that basis ... though hilariously, [i]Husic is self-announcedly not a practising Moslem![/i]... And I'm sure Mega thought that I was telling Joe it was a pity he didn't drown himself BECAUSE I despised him for supporting Ed Husic. As if I were a religious bigot, as many of the commentators on Husic's vow are. No! I'm an ANTI-religious bigot. I say that the Lord's Prayer and all trappings of religion have no place in Australian political affairs. None at all. I object! Anyway to George I recommended in the end a course of autoendocephalic traction. Seems he's taken my advice! :) Now for Phillip Adams. Once a top advertising executive, Adams was one to the 2 men credited with the Life Be In It campaign, and used to drive a Rolls Royce I'm told. That has to tell you something! Anyway for many years he has presented Late Night Live, a genuinely erudite ABC radio program, and Yes he is well-read and his program is extremely peregrinacious. But along with some scaly mates like one Rhys M he has been baying for *J*U*L*I*A*s blood ever since she rolled KRudd - well he has anyway certainly been a devoted agitator for Rudd's return, and a scathing scornful critic of hers. So I'm no admirer of his either. So when he started being holier-than-thou about Carr and the "100% economic migrants" comment, ROD HAGEN commented: [i]You, @PhillipAdams_1, properly bashed JG for cheap sell-out to the Right on Asylum Seekers but now Rudd/Carr want to give bigots free rein![/i] so I said to Rod Hagen @Rod_Hagen @PhillipAdams_1 has been 1 of the nastiest Ruddites. I hear he's sick.H'mm.Get well soon Phillip, then get a decency transplant. So Phillip challenged me: @PhillipAdams_1 @TalkyTurkey Please supply details of your crusading for refugees. Sorry-seem to have mislaid them.will retweet yr. inspirational example. Now I never said I had any solutions for the AS problems, let alone crusading for them, and it is disingenouous of Adams to suggest that I did. Fact is I specifically disavowed expertise in this blog just a few threads back, but said that as far as I could suggest no-one had come up with any better strategies than the so-called Malaysia Solution. So I told Phillip wtte OK when you send me evidence of ever having said anything good about *J*U*L*I*A*, as if! And further directed him to trawl these columns for the last 3 years if he's really interested. He's been in hospital for some serious stuff, I wished him well but bade him get a decency transplant while he's there. I do enjoy the chance sometimes of using the power of The Sword on members of the MSM in particular. At last we have the means to deflate many of the puffed-up circle-jerkers, and I personally have the temperament not to back out of a verbal stoush. It's a love-hate thing but at least it's not bland. This is a weird post isn't it! Sorry about that. It has all to do with what has been done to *J*U*L*I*A* and many of the best of her front bench. It has made me very pugnacious indeed.

paul walter

3/07/2013Well, it's certainly a helpful post, for those hoping that the emergency measures of last week on top of appalling poll results might yet save the Senate from Austerity Abbott's unfettered control. As Tanya Plibersek hinted on Monday night,it is actually about preventing the Gillard legacy washed away in a landslide. What was to be lost when the situation had drifted to impossible? Rudd goes after the campaign if Labor can't hold government or if his alleged eccentricities offend his cabinet in the unlikely event he holds government. The back flip from the first part of the post to the second was memorable.

Tom of Melbourne

3/07/2013Rudd was very impressive on 730 this evening. A breath of fresh air after years of listening to Gillard's nasally droning drawl.

lyn

4/07/2013Today’s Links Old Empires New Legacies by @MrDenmore Journalism isn't like any other business. And that's because journalism isn't a business at all. The great newspaper empires now being dismantled in Australia and elsewhere were actually advertising businesses supporting cultural institutions. http://thefailedestate.blogspot.com.au/ Political reporting failing voters by @electionwatch_ Take the coverage of the last few days. Suddenly we are hearing about policy - carbon pricing, education, boat people and the national broadband network. Is this because there is more policy substance coming from the Prime Minister, or because a new Prime Minister is "news", meaning that he gets coverage that was denied to his predecessor? http://2013electionwatch.com.au/analysis/political-reporting-failing-voters A very different close election by @benraue the polls could well change in either direction. But it does tell us that even a close election result would be very different to the close election result in 2010: it could see a majority formed by either side of politics. It also tells us that the large number of marginal seats in Queensland means that this state could be decisive in a close election. http://www.tallyroom.com.au/15473 Australia's economic success should not be obscured by leadership politics by Jim Chalmers and costly combination of hyper-partisanship, short-termism, lobbying, rent-seeking, sloganeering, oppositionalism and circular self-criticism mixed with a curious blend of complacency and anxiety has poisoned Australia’s confidence in itself. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/03/australian-economy-growth-rudd Is Abbott losing it? And I don't just mean the election... by rossleighbrisbane However, it’s not just hyperbole of his comment on asylum seekers that makes his comment strange – it’s the “four years” when refering to Rudd. It’s been close to six since Rudd was elected and three since he was removed. But it’s taken him “four years”? It may seem a minor point, but it does seem to indicate a lack of attention to detail. http://rossleighbrisbane.wordpress.com/ Why the people demand – and pay for – an #Ashby investigation by @NoFibs My overriding concern was the deliberately abject failure of the media to concern itself with the facts. There had been an attempted, albeit bloodless, coup on the parliament of our country. It patently involved senior members of one of this country’s main political parties – yet the media was not interested. http://nofibs.com.au/2013/07/02/the-people-demand-and-pay-for-an-ashby-investigation/ 25Mbps? Tell Him He’s Dreamin’ by @sortius It seems that recently Malcolm Turnbull has decided to become his own “meta-fact-checker” by taking on Politifact Australia regarding their recent findings on Turnbull’s claims he can deliver a minimum 25Mbps network.From the onset, Turnbull demonstrates how little he understands http://sortius-is-a-geek.com/ Abbott not telling whole NBN truth, says Politifact by @renailemay the Coalition’s NBN policy is not as strong a policy as Labor’s existing, more visionary all-fibre NBN policy. Often the only way to make the Coalition’s NBN policy appear in a favourable light is to be selective with the facts, and that is precisely what is happening here. http://delimiter.com.au/2013/07/03/abbott-not-telling-whole-nbn-truth-says-politifact/ Julia Gillard: 'We can win election' by NICK TOSCANO and LAURA LITTLE Ms Gillard urged voters to give Labor another term in office, saying many major policies were "works in progress" and at risk of being cut back if the Coalition took government. http://www.wyndhamweekly.com.au/story/1613815/julia-gillard-we-can-win-election/?cs=1553 Greg Barns calls out media bias over Ashbygate by @independentaus He once again called out the mainstream media for their blatant bias in relation to the matter and seeming lack of curiosity with respect to Justice Rares’ damning Federal Court judgement. http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/business/media-2/greg-barns-calls-out-media-bias-over-ashbygate/ Seems the 'real' Tony Abbott doesn't travel anywhere without his makeup these days By @no_filter_Yamba Australian Opposition Leader Tony Abbott preparing for one of his staged outdoor appearances for the media's benefit on 27 June 2013: http://northcoastvoices.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/seems-real-tony-abbott-doesnt-travel.html Tony Abbott loves to spend taxpayers money by @phonytonyabbott As you can see, Tony Abbott has outspent Julia Gillard by $226,681.57 - that is more than 3.5 times the amount that Julia Gillard spent http://www.phonytonyabbott.com/blog/tony-abbott-loves-to-spend-taxpayers-money Special K by @madwixxy Over the weekend many of you may have witnessed the spectacle of Tony Abbott at a Liberal campaign launch. Tony stood before a room full of people all wearing the same shirt and waving the same silly flags while Tony Abbott paraded himself on a platform like he was Sarah Palin jumping onstage after a moose hunt. http://wixxyleaks.com/2013/07/03/special-k/ Your chance to put questions to the Opposition by @goaskabbott If the media won’t hold the opposition to account, it’s up to ordinary citizens like us. http://goaskabbott.com/ The Conversation latest publisher to launch fact checking service by @mumbrella We are using academics who have subject expertise to do our checks and then we have a second blind review to do a check on their finding,” she told Mumbrella. “We are trying to do fact checks in areas where we believe academics can add value.” http://mumbrella.com.au/the-conversation-to-launch-electionfactcheck-165381#more-165381 Making the news Podcast by Peter Clarke ABC’s relationship with social media, news-gathering in the digital age, the role of ABC News 24, and decisions about the deployment of ABC resources overseas. In part 2, she discusses the ABC’s approach to reporting the 2013 federal election, the ABC’s new fact-checking unit and http://inside.org.au/making-the-news/ Press Gallery Australia's Federal Press Gallery, A list of gallery members, with some contact details, is available here for download. http://pressgallery.net.au/?page_id=10 Today’s Front Pages Australian Newspaper Front Pages for 4 July 2013 http://www.thepaperboy.com/australia/front-pages.cfm News headlines http://www.hotheadlines.com.au/

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4/07/2013LYN'S DAILY LINKS updated: http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/page/LYNS-DAILY-LINKS.aspx

DoodlePoodle

4/07/2013Most of you will remember Maximilian Walsh economic and political commentator. Max is now associated with Dixon Advisory and writes regular articles. Thought his latest article "Why Rudd Can Win" may interest some. http://www.dixon.com.au/Libraries/Max_s_Thoughts/Why_Rudd_Can_Win_130703.sflb.ashx

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4/07/2013Hi Lyn Back at the south coast the grass needs mowing! And with the rain coming, I need to get out on the mower now. I’ll catch up with your interesting-looking links later.

TalkTurkey

4/07/2013Ed Husic - a longtime Ruddite btw - chose to swear on the Koran. I do not in the slightest condemn him for this - beyond the extent to which I do most emphatically condemn the practice of swearing on "Holy Books". Be the swearer Muslim, Jew or "Christian", such nonsense has NO PLACE in Australia's SECULAR legal systems. It is a foul vestige of a time when God-fearing was part of the State's means of controlling people's behaviour. It should not be permitted in future, and if the Australian people were ever to have the self-respect to create a Republic, that would be a good time to rid ourselves of it. The really hilarious part of this is that Ed Husic himself,in an interview I saw, said, a)that he didn't want to give an "affirmation" (I have no idea why that might be, anyone suggest?); b)that having been nurtured in a Moslem milieu he didn't want to swear on the Christian Bible, that I do understand; and c)that [i]although he was not a practising Moslem himself[/i] he chose to swear on the Koran! Well there is this goo to hold it together I suppose, that [b]Religion itself is nonsense from the ground up. It only uses logic when it's convenient.[/b] I'll come back to that thought in bold in another post. It is a corollary of an important and universal truth. One of the few things I learnt from a very superficial smattering of philosophy. Truly.

TalkTurkey

4/07/2013Rudd: "We(Labor) are a broad church ..." [b][i]WE'RE NOT A BLOODY CHURCH![/i][/b]

Pappinbarra Fox

4/07/2013The LOTO has some gall talking about the Australian people choosing their leader. If the Coalition form the next government not even ALL the parliamentary members of the new government will have been involved in choosing the Prime Minister - the Nationals will be locked out of that little democratic activity. So talk about faceless men - the Nats are not only faceless but not even there. And the Liberals do not even get to choose who will be deputy PM. Could be Barnaby. Spare us the high moral ground on leadership questions Tony, you aint fit for the post.

TalkTurkey

4/07/2013Just saw this, exactly my pov as I said earlier. http://thehoopla.com.au/god-parliament-house/

DMW

4/07/2013TT, an affirmation is what you desire for our secular society; i.e. swearing an oath of allegiance without the use of a holy book as a place to put your hand.

2353

4/07/2013It has been Australian law for a considerable period of time that those who wish to swear an oath can do so on the text that is fundamental to their religion (if they choose to). That there is a hue & cry over a Federal Minister using a religious text that is not "the bible" to swear an oath shows how far this country needs to go before we can really claim to be a society where every one is equal. Religion still has a large place to play in the life of a considerable number of Australians, despite the personal preference of some that have posted above - those who believe in a "higher being" also have a right to take an oath over an affirmation. This too is an example of this country's equality (or lack thereof).

Michael

4/07/2013http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-04/rudd-invites-abbott-to-security-briefings-on-people-smuggling/4798830 This is a useful trick... for liars. PM Rudd invites Abbott by letter to take part in national security briefings about asylum seekers on boats. We know because the letter was leaked to the Press. Abbott rejects the offer saying PM doesn't take national security seriously because his letter was leaked to the Press. Great 'get out of jail free' card, especially used by someone who's 50% likely to be the leaker. Well, someone's office did, so who do you reckon took the blustering political road instead of the 'get yourself accurately informed' national security policy one? "50%" it was Abbott? I see a 9 in front of my estimation.

TalkTurkey

4/07/2013DMW I know what an affirmation is ... I just wonder why Husic, NOT being a practising Moslem as he himself stated, would not wish to affirm ... So now it appears that his oath isn't worth anything because he swore on a *holy book* he doesn't believe in! I would take the word of somebody who affirmed before anybody who swore on any of the books of supernatural nonsense. People who affirm are sincere.

Catching up

4/07/2013Could it be that Husic used his fathers Korean a a mark of respect for his father. Has he said he is a disbeliever or a lapse Muslim. Anyway, whose business visa it. Is Abbott turning up for 7.30 tonight. Mr. Abbott, Mr. Rudd is both overweening and electioneering. Some can do ore that one thing at a time.

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4/07/2013Hi Lyn I’ve now read your links after hours of mowing grass growing untidily during the winter cold. It looks much neater now. I enjoyed the variety in your links and have bookmarked the list of Canberra Press Gallery journalists, one I have never been able to find. It is noteworthy how few of them list email addresses. The disillusionment of the Fifth Estate with the Fourth comes through again and again. Jim Chalmers’ article was well written. The Fact Checkers are going to make life difficult for the politicians. I was amazed at Tony Abbott’s travel and office expenses, and amused at his need for a make-up artist when out on his community visits. Mind you, he needs one.

janice

4/07/2013Talk Turkey, I strongly agree with you re Ed Husic and his choosing to swear on the Koran, and in this practice of swearing on the christian bible which those who like to call themselves 'christian' do. Enlarging on this, it also is a bit odd to me that a christian prayer is used in parliament. Here we are living in a society that is made up of many faiths as well as those who are non-believers, and according to the constitution, there is supposed to be a separation of powers.

Catching up

4/07/2013Maybe Husic used hos father's Koran out of respect for him. Did Husic say he was a non believer, or lapsed Muslim. There is a difference. Anyway whose business is it. Wonder it Abbott will turn up tonight on ABC 7.30. Suspect not. Mr. Abbott, the answer to your question, is that Rudd is governing and campaigning. Some people can do more that two things at once. I know you will find this hard to believe. The previous PM managed numerous tasks at once. I know you found it hard, or even impossible, to sit on a plane for hours, and at the same time, read an important justice ruling. The first ten years of this decade have been the hottest on record. They are calling it a record of extremes. This is world wide. The climate is changing. Can we afford to see the CEF and all it contains, dismanlted?

Michael

4/07/2013Thanks for the re-print, Sir I. Very much in Coalition style to take someone else's text and put it out in the public eye. Rather reiterates my point about who was congenitally more likely to be the leaker on this one. Still seeing '9' for 'the fair dinkum bloke who wears make-up''s mob.

2353

4/07/2013TT - Husic probably used a Koran for his swearing in for the same reasons that a lot of current and past minister have used a bible while not being active followers of one of the many brands of christianity. In short - he had his reasons - there are more important issues to discuss.

Jason

4/07/2013Yep it was Rudd! and may he cop it! But you old boy, helped as you only follow orders as your rank doesn't allow you to give any, kill over 500,000 Iraq's based on a lie!

Tom of Melbourne

4/07/2013[i]The deaths were caused by your capitalist mates who put profits ahead of workplace safety.[/i] People that know anything about safety don’t usually agree with this simplistic single cause rationale on fatalities. More likely there are multiple factors that all converge and result in a tragedy. IN the case of the ceiling insulation, the contributory factors from the government include- • Deliberately stimulating an industry without adequate safety regulation • Deliberately drawing inexperienced operators into the industry • Encouraging inexperienced operator to recruit inexperienced employees • Not having a regulated safety induction program in the industry that it was funding • Attracting shonky operators with the lure of quick government revenue • Ignoring warnings about safety breaches Contributors her should get over their simplistic, partisan excuses for a major government stuff up.

TalkTurkey

4/07/2013I looked up above Comrades What did I see? Crapstain the Smelly Had a message for ME! But the funny part is If you like irony [i]I'll never read past his first line! [/i] [b]Hee Hee Hee![/b] Have:) Fun:) With:) Trolls!:)

Jason

4/07/2013ToM, Despite your flowery excuses, here in SA as I've said to you before we had no deaths! We had no deaths because you need a builders licence to begin with even just for "pink batts"! So you couldn't just "set up"! Not that a builders licence is a great protection as you can still get shonky builders but it is at least better than what they hand in QLD, NSW and Victoria and no amount of crap from you will change that fact!

TalkTurkey

4/07/20132353 I might be mistaking your tone but I must say you sound a bit hostile. If so let me know outright please with your reasons. There is no need for sniping here, we've had enough with Rudd et al surely.* As for your pithy dissing (or should that be sp:(:)nerised?) of my point that there should be no religious claptrap whatsoever in a secular society's legal system - [i]"there are more important issues to discuss" [/i]- Well let me tell you Bro I will decide what issues I reckon are important and the basis on which I so consider them, thank you for the advice. In this particular case [i]I believe for well-thought-through reasons that it is absolutely vital to the survival of life on this planet that people abandon all belief in the supernatural of which notions of godhead are chief[/i]. It is therefore of paramount importance that no such bullshit as the recitation of "the Lord's Prayer" [i](FFS!) [/i]or swearing on of *holy books* ...(!)... be enshrined in the fabric of the Law, whose ultimate repository is the Federal Parliament. Would you like to mount an argument to the contrary? Glad to accommodate you if so. Everybody welcome ... * The rest of this post was written on the assumption that you were indeed, as Jason might say, pissing on my leg and trying to tell me it's raining, with a gust of wintry dismissal to boot. If that's wrong only you would know, but as I've said before I'm Brucie the Bilby for soft on one side, and Euclid the Echidna on the other. Right now I'm prickly, and that's the way your tone of post came to me. I'll retract my spikes on your assurance you weren't sniping, in which case I'll also offer you my paw.

TalkTurkey

4/07/2013Bilbies have the softest hair of any I have ever touched, and absolutely unlike the coarse hair of all the other many Bandicoot-like creatures. Softer than a Mopoke, softer than [i]anything![/i] And Yes, I am soft. In most ways anyway, including the head. Truly I am. Oh but then there's these [i]Prickles[/i]...!

2353

4/07/2013TT - all I'm saying is there are more important things to discuss that somebody using the "holy" book from a religion to swear an oath - when using a "holy" book is a requirement for an oath. If you would prefer to take an affirmation that's fine - but others obviously have a different opinion. The bottom line here is to ensure that Abbott never becomes PM. Other issues are a distraction.

Curi-Oz

4/07/2013I recall one of the clever math-type bloggers (possibly GrogsGamutt? or Possum?) that calculated that the risks of house-fires or deaths were measurably less after HIP than before. And I vaguely recall there being a QLD OSH audit that also pointed out that the employers were at fault. And as Jason pointed out, not all states have the same requirements for businesses that permit unqualified workers to be used to install insulation. Apologies for not providing the links, I'm on my phone *sigh* Regards,

lyn

5/07/2013Today’s Links Team Rudd by @LarvatusProdeo Overall to me Team Rudd looks strong and pro-active. Bernard Keane on local radio this morning suggested that Rudd’s government will be more interventionist than Gillard’s.Meanwhile at Independent Australia Murdoch may be abandoning Abbott in favour of Rudd. Stranger things have happened, but not often! http://larvatusprodeo.net/archives/2013/07/team-rudd/ What Weaknesses and Strengths Does Tony Abbott’s World Affairs Journal Interview Reveal? by @djackmanson Abbott appeared weak on foreign affairs in the article. Even the mostly-friendly author said Abbott resorted to platitudes in his discussion of the rise of China. Not that it will swing many votes by itself, but I think PM Rudd, a former diplomat in Beijing who is fluent in Mandarin, will easily win any discussion of foreign affairs with Abbott. http://ausvotes2013.com/2013/07/04/what-weaknesses-and-strengths-does-tony-abbotts-world-affairs-journal-interview-reveal/ Liberal Party Says Labor gave us the "world’s biggest carbon tax". by @PolitiFactOz to claim it is "the world’s biggest" pushes the envelope.In a debate as contentious as that which surrounds carbon pricing, we think it’s important not to be selective about how you interpret data, and not to leave voters with the wrong impression. As such, we rate this statement Half True. http://www.politifact.com.au/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/jul/01/liberal-party-australia/Labor-carbon-tax-world-bigges Will the love for Kevin Rudd last beyond the honeymoon by Simon Jackman Rudd and Labor need to “move the needle” a little more to make this an election truly close, let alone to give Labor a chance at winning government in their own right. It's little wonder then that Labor strategist Bruce Hawker is calling for Tony Abbott to commit to debating Rudd, little wonder that changes are underway. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/the-swing Queensland MPs are highest-paid state politicians after pay rise by Nick Evershed The former premier of Queensland Anna Bligh froze salaries in 2009, a decision which has now been reversed after the acting premier, Jeff Seeney, received crown law advice that the pay freeze was "unlawful". http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2013/jul/04/queensland-politicians-payrise?CMP=twt_gu Get God Out of Parliament by @spicertracey The Secular Party wants the removal of religious references from statutory oaths and pledges, the phasing out of government funding for religious schools, the abolition of parliamentary prayers, and an end to the tax-free status of religious organisations, to create “a society free of sectarian strife” http://thehoopla.com.au/god-parliament-house/ The Kouk Writes: Mr Hockey’s gyrations on the dollar, 4 July 2013 by @TheKouk Somewhat paradoxically, Mr Hockey noted, "whilst it is good that the Australian dollar comes down for business, particularly for business that is involved in exports, the speed with which it comes down adds to the volatility of the Australian economy. There is no doubt about that". http://www.percapita.org.au/01_cms/details.asp?ID=615 6 Reasons Tony Abbott must debate PM Rudd, and soon by TurnLeft @MigloMT Not only is Abbott putting his challengers and the Government under pressure, he is also under pressure, too much more and Australia might witness the Great Unhinging http://theaimn.com/2013/07/04/6-reasons-tony-abbott-must-debate-pm-rudd-and-soon/ Rupert Murdoch admits to knowing about illegal practices at News International by @independentaus A secret tape recording of a meeting between Rupert Murdoch and arrested Sun journalists, obtained by UK investigative website Exaro, shows a far from humble Murdoch admitting to knowing about ‒ and effectively sanctioning ‒ corrupt and illegal practices at his British newspapers. http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/business/media-2/rupert-murdoch-admits-to-knowing-about-illegal-practices-at-news-international/ Who would you vote for? by @MigloMT Who would you vote for? Someone with a speech impediment who had the guts to front the media? Or an alpha male whose party mocks the person with a speech impediment but doesn’t have the guts to front the media themselves? http://cafewhispers.wordpress.com/2013/07/05/who-would-you-vote-for/ A familiar AFP smell over Slipper and #Ashby by @margokingston1 Documents obtained by me this week and reproduced below show that Peter Slipper did offer to repay any overpayments to Finance last year, and that Finance advised it had no knowledge of any overpayments with regard to the 2010 matter. In a letter dated 9 November 2012, it said that apart from a matter not relevant to the 2010 claim, http://nofibs.com.au/2013/07/04/a-familiar-afp-smell-over-slipper-and-ashby/ Abbott-Proofing Clean Energy by Hugh Power from the wind and sun is healthy, does not require water or fuel, does not pollute rivers and aquifers, provides local jobs and a huge economic benefit. It is vastly cheaper on a level playing field, after taking the social and environmental costs. And the Opposition hates it. http://coffsoutlook.com/abbott-proofing-clean-energy/ Hockey and Abbott pitch business by @macro_business Actually, I don’t think that’s what business wants at all. At least, not big business. Rather, it wants to control the agenda, limit its commitment to the commons where ever possible and maximise rents via reduced competition. The Labor government did not come a-cropper with business because it didn’t listen. It fell apart because it listened too much, http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/07/hockey-and-abbott-pitch-business/ What do Australians think about equality? by @ALeighMP .” The present Liberal leader, Tony Abbott, takes the view that “in the end we have to be a productive and competitive society and greater inequality might be inevitable.” Malcolm Turnbull has shown interest in this topic, but a recent profile of him suggests that “the kind of equality he is most attracted to is not so much greater equality of outcome http://inside.org.au/what-do-australians-think-about-equality/ The new, improved Kevin by Steve think it's undeniable that Rudd gave an extraordinarily self assured and good performance on his first 7.30 interview last night. I feel pretty confident that it would have been causing no small amount of anxiety in Abbott's office as they watched it. http://opiniondominion.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/the-new-improved-kevin.html Politics is a dirty game! by Truth Seeker Campbell Newman is another example of a right wing nut job who’s majority means that he can ride roughshod over the rights of the people and workers because he is not held accountable. Lies and deceptions are their stock in trade, and Newman has been spurred on by Abbott, http://truthseekersmusings.wordpress.com/ Today’s Front Pages Australian Newspaper Front Pages for 5 July 2013 http://www.thepaperboy.com/australia/front-pages.cfm News headlines http://www.hotheadlines.com.au/

TalkTurkey

5/07/2013Good morning Tweety! :) I know that Over There in your new home, sure as the sun will soon rise, you are flitting around the blogosphere, coming back with a full bill of Links ... And they will all be there on the breakfast table smorgasbord by sunup too, for all the birds of different feathers to feast upon. Then you'll be Tweeting goodwill messages and breaking news on Twitter, You make all the rest of us LUCKY! Have a nice day Lynnie. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Now, This from C@tmomma at the Pub blog - (A very good site it is too.) I'm posting her article in full because it's so impressive. And I can only, sadly, agree with her position. We must be every bit as determined as ever to keep these moronic Abborttians out of power - because don't be under any illusion that now that *J*U*L*I*A*s gone there isn't any difference between Us and Them, the difference is HUGE. [i]Even though [/i]I think Rudd himself is a snottynosed earwaxeating selfimportant snide cynical conniving nasty petty pompous little git, who has behaved despicably all along, the fact is that [i]nearly all [/i]the Labor MHRs themselves are decent sincere hardworkers whose morality and policies are [i]worlds away [/i]from those of this terrible Opposition. And don't let depression over Rudd's ascendancy get the better of you, don't chuck in the towel, We MUST Win! Funny thing I can say that about Rudd here without feeling I'm hurting the Labor Party's chances at all because of this, that [i]while Comrades of the Fighting 5th Estate are virtually as one in their support of *J*U*L*I*A*, the rest of Australians hate her and love Rudd! It is utterly perverse. But it's a fact.[/i] It's always sad to lose your Queen in a game Chess, but that doesn't mean you can't win! It just gets more desperate. And don't miss this, that *J*U*L*I*A* wants us to do all we can to help - as she herself is doing. What a person she is. Here's C@tmomma's article. [b]The Show MUST Go On[/b]. June 27, 2013 10:32 pm / 1,573 Comments Life is a highway. Are you going my way? I’m on a journey. I hope you can come too. That journey is to effect the sort of change in the Labor Party which I think we can all agree is needed if it is to survive & prosper as a Progressive Social Democratic political party, onwards through the 21st century and beyond. As someone who gets to see politics in the raw in NSW, I think I am qualified to say my piece about what has occurred as the 43rd Parliament drew to a close, and I hope that you respect the fact that I have thought long and hard about the situation we have all just lived through and which the party finds itself in with respect to Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard exchanging roles yesterday, and I hope you respect my perspective. You don’t have to agree with it, just respect the fact that it is neither a knee-jerk, reflexive lashing out, or a requiem for the ALP that some might expect or demand, just my perspective. A different perspective. In fact, I’m not going to make a comment either way about the manner in which Kevin Rudd came to get back the position of Prime Minister. That has been hashed out ad infinitum and we all have an opinion about the propriety of that action and the manner in which JGPM (for she will always be that to me, I coined the acronym after all on Twitter), was relentlessly undermined by forces within her own party, the media and the Opposition, which includes their mouthpieces in the Conservative Think Tanks. That’s a given, and a shame that it had to occur to the nation’s first female Prime Minister, and that it coincided with the advent of 24/7 News media in this country. They have to have something to comment on, dissect, analyse and pontificate about in an increasingly obvious partisan way. Such is life. We do it too, and those in glass houses shouldn’t cast around for stones at a time like this because to continue to express rancour now only expends our energies needlessly and for short term existential gain. Not the sort of long-term productive gain which can really lead to us vanquishing our common enemies. Who are they? Firstly, and foremostly, it is the Coalition. In a very short space of time, we of the Progressive bent will be facing them in the trenches, and we had better get our acts together I say, in double-quick time, if we are to have a chance of defeating them. That’s all that counts right now. Bitter recriminations are fine, and all well and good in the short run but only serve to hobble the cause we all believe in, in the long run, if we let those feelings eat away at our souls. That way lies an ineffective and divided rabble, and a heart-breakingly thumping win for the Conservatives. With all that would entail in a draconian policy sense. So, yes, Kevin Rudd was an A-Grade A-hole, and so were the Cardinals and the other assorted Rudd Rats. I think we can all agree that their behaviour was reprehensible, and they too are our enemies within. Which is why I have decided not to resign from the Labor Party, as others have. I have decided that Kevin Rudd and his acolytes & congenital chancres within the Labor Party may be having their day in the sun in the Labor Party now, but the cause of reform drives me on to the horizon beyond them and is the greater good which I have decided to keep working for, inside the party. As I said to a couple of ladies up my way when I first joined the ALP, you can get upset about things and yell from the sidelines, or you can run onto the field as part of the team & get down and dirty with the rest of them and fight for what you believe in and do your best to kick goals and produce the sort of results you think should be being achieved. “History is made by those who turn up”, as Tony Windsor said. So I’m going to keep turning up because I am on a personal crusade, with the Labor Party as my vehicle, for what I believe in. I have succeeded in sidelining some of the malign forces that we all detest in my local area, which has prevented them from having a platform on the national stage, and we have got a better representative as a result. Also I believe that if I stick with it I can do my bit to fulfill the legacy of JGPM in the party, as Tanya Plibersek appears to have decided to do also, and stick around to vanquish the malign forces and see them replaced by those who represent the qualities we respect. I do. If I don’t and I give up and go away I think that I would feel worse. I do. I also think Julia Gillard would approve because we are staying to stand and fight another day. Nothing good is ever easy, and the past 3 years and the last 3 days have shown me me that when the going gets tough, the tough get going and the show MUST go on. They might have won the battle but they will not win the war. I fight on.

2353

5/07/2013Here's another case of incomplete reporting. Lyn links above to an article where Acting Queensland Premier Seeney announced a $57000 payrise for Parliamentarians as a "pay freeze" by the previous Premier was found to be unlawful on advice from Crown Law. Government agencies such as Crown Law and the CMC do not generally investigate something unless requested to do so. So, who asked Crown Law to investigate former Premier Bligh's "pay freeze" for politicians?

Ad astra

5/07/2013LYN'S DAILY LINKS updated: http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/page/LYNS-DAILY-LINKS.aspx

Ad astra

5/07/2013Hi Lyn As I’ll be spending most of the day on my next piece I’ve already read your links, again a great collection. Andrew Leigh’s piece is a preamble to his newly-published book: [i]Battlers and Billionaires[/i], which promises to be a good read. It sounds like the Australian version of Joseph Stiglitz’s [i]The Price of Inequality[/i]. This is an aspect of our economy that is troubling. In a society where egalitarianism has been a value since colonial days, the growing gap between the battlers and the billionaires is something Labor is trying to reduce, while Coalition policies would widen it. That is an ideological battle we face as we approach the election. The choice is ours. Truth Seeker’s piece is a great read.

KHTAGH

5/07/2013Leigh Sales at it already trying to undermine Kevin Rudd, if anyone had any doubt that she just wants the Lieberals in & Labor out last night would have put paid to that. She blatantly accused Labor of being responsible for the HIS deaths. Question:- Is the defense minister responsible for death in the defense force? [b]NO![/b] Is the health minister responsible for death in the hospitals? [b]NO![/b] Is the transport minister responsible for death on the roads? [b]NO![/b] Is the education minister responsible for death in the schools thru allergies? [b]NO![/b] Is the industrial relation minister responsible for death in the work force? [b]NO![/b] Is the agriculture minister responsible for death on the land? [b]NO![/b] Is the resources minister responsible for death in the mines? [b]NO![/b] Was the previous Lieberal aged care minister responsible for death in the aged care facilities & kerosene baths? [b]NO![/b](although she should have been). So why does the media say that Peter Garret & Kevin Rudd & Julia Gillard is responsible for the HIS deaths, they are [b]NOT![/b] It is just being used as a tool to attack the Labor government. Again, still. Nothing has change with Sales, she just has the hots for Abbott. There was no mention on 7:30 about the fact that Abbott still refuses to front up even though Hockey had said the night before that he would. Nothing has changed it would seem we still have the ABC hell bend on a change of government, regardless of the players.

Ken

5/07/2013Curi-Oz Yes, you are right. Possum analysed the figures (starting with a CSIRO report) to show that, overall, there were fewer house fires when the insulation program was rolled out. I have commented on this prevously on TPS. It may have been a result of faulty and old wiring being identified during the insulation process. And here's the link: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2011/04/24/the-csiro-gets-hip-to-debunking-media-hysteria/

Martin Spalding

5/07/2013Doodle Poodle @ 4 July 8:30am - I read that Max Walsh article in the Fin Review & don't rate it highly at all. Seems to buy into the 'Gillard has only herself to blame' meme, ignoring all the effects of dodgy media coverage and the Rudd whiteanting. Plus he makes a number of quite astonishing comments: - quotes half approvingly the line 'People vote for the candidate who elicits the right feelings, not the candidate who presents the best arguments' - says the probably foremost reason for people rejecting her was her 'lifestyle' ... Whatever that is supposed to mean - quotes a letter mentioned in Maxine McKew's book: 'There is a lot of inherent conservatism in the Asian community and rightly or wrongly, they had difficulty in accepting a woman who was unmarried and who did not believe in God.” I don't know who to direct this to, but 'what the...??' - says "her negative attitude to same-sex marriage sat uncomfortably with her own unconventional lifestyle." Again, 'unconventional lifestyle' - what the..?? Max Walsh may just be saying what others are saying, but in the context of an article whose theme is 'Rudd can win', and in the absence of any condemnation of some of these views, we can only assume that he's totally OK with them. If so, I don't like it.

Heather

5/07/2013Did you see how those young men being employed to put the pink batt insulation in the roofs, neglected to turn the electricity off at the mains before they started work climbing up in to the roof spaces? What idiots. Everyone knows to turn the electricity off when doing this sort of stuff. Even me and I am a woman. Crikey! and now they are blaming Kevin Rudd. Hope those parents feel real good at the politicising of their sons' deaths. Look both Leigh Sales and Emma Alberici are hopeless interviewers, right from the start if you ask me. Alberici show some improvement in intelligence. Mind you Tony Jones is not far behind with his silly interrogation techniques like the inane repeating of questions. Treat a kid like that and you are in trouble. Who really wants to watch all this? Sadists! wanking off or something. It is all very leery. You just have to go watch Tiggy Fuller, Ali Moore and Chris Urhlman to see true professionals on the job. Even right wing people don't like shoddy and nasty interviewing. Sometimes they slip up and swing in to it with OS interviewees and then they back off really quickly, slightly embarrassed. Seem to be they are just out to kill the aussies. Appallingly rude and barbaric dont you think?

Ken

5/07/2013Just a comment on the coroner's findings on the HIP deaths. I find it difficult to comprehend that he can place some of the blame on the Federal Government for not having sufficient regulations in place before rolling it out. I thought building regulations were a State responsibility!! As Jason has pointed out there were no deaths in SA because, even just to instal insulation, the person has to be a licenced builder. As I recall 2 of the deaths were in Queensland. And in my memory, Queensland has a long history of lax building regulation!!!!

DoodlePoodle

5/07/2013Martin Spalding I take your points. I too belong to the group who thought Julia was a great PM. I did not like the way she was brought down. However, the main point I took from this article was, that the voters having remained faithful to Rudd for 3 years, that Rudd's popularity in the polls may not just be a "political sugar rush". We can dwell on the negatives or we can can get on with the job of beating Abbott. Julia herself and others on this board advocate this approach.

Truth Seeker

5/07/2013I have to admit to finding it passing strange that the coroners findings come out a week after Rudd takes over, and he then finds that the federal gov is partly responsible. To my mind that's like saying that the bank or finance company is responsible for the death of an unlicensed driver who killed himself by crashing a car that they financed? Could there be some level of political interference in this report? Cheers :-) :-)

Truth Seeker

5/07/2013Lyn, thanks for the link to my piece, and all you hard work (K) Ad, thanks for your kind recommendation :-) Cheers :-) :-)

Tom of Melbourne

5/07/2013As I said earlier, the government shares culpability for the fatalities, and dills that know nothing about workplace safety look for a range of excuses, rather than examining the actual multiple causes. [i] July 4. 2013 07:10 PM More likely there are multiple factors that all converge and result in a tragedy. In the case of the ceiling insulation, the contributory factors from the government include- • Deliberately stimulating an industry without adequate safety regulation • Deliberately drawing inexperienced operators into the industry • Encouraging inexperienced operators to recruit inexperienced employees (without a specific training program) • Not having a regulated safety induction program in the industry that it was funding • Attracting shonky operators with the lure of quick government revenue • Ignoring warnings about safety breaches Contributors here should get over their simplistic, partisan excuses for a major government stuff up.[/i]

Pappinbarra Fox

5/07/201347.3 fires p.a. per 100,000 insulated homes 13.9 fires p.a. per 100,000 insulated homes. Which figure is the HIP figure and which is the pre-HIP figure?

Paul of Berwick

5/07/2013Well, if 20% of voters are mobile only and if political polling only uses landlines - how accurate are these polls? - http://www.theaustralian.com.au/australian-it/aussies-cut-fixed-line-home-phone-cord/story-e6frgakx-1226674714946 - http://www.acma.gov.au/theACMA/engage-blogs/engage-blogs/Research/Reseach-Snapshots/Mobile-only-Australians-top-over-3-million

TalkTurkey

5/07/2013We have lost our Warrior Queen But she's left us all her jewels: Don't lose her pearls to those Liberal swine Abborrtt & his Fools!

Jason

5/07/2013Ken, The 3 deaths in Queensland were caused by electrocution when stapling aluminium foil in roof cavities even though it's recommended plastic staples be used to prevent such things they cost money. The fourth in NSW was caused by heat exhaustion from working in a roof-space in hot weather, Most building sites I've ever worked on we go home at 40 degrees and that's where some of the problem is! On big building sites OH&S is practiced suburban sub contractors can decide to follow or not but if you are unaware of them in the first place there isn't much too follow. What you wont hear from Tom is the OH&S systems in QLD NSW and Victoria were so shabby that this could even happen in the first place! Yes the federal government does bare some of the blame, but they don't write state laws!

Ken

5/07/2013Jason Thanks for refreshing me on the figures. And as Heather said, wouldn't it be common sense, and definitely a standard safety procedure, to turn off the electricity - though if they stapled through the wires with the power off, it would likely have led to a house fire not long afterwards. And I was aware, as you point out, that the Qld deaths involved foil insulation, not "pink batts". I understand that the pink batts aren't suitable in the far nothern climes - something to do with the high rainfall and humidity which only encourages mould and bugs in the loose fibre of the batts. But, if they are the norm up there, it sounds very much as if it was outside companies that had the conracts. Having said that, perhaps that is where the Federal government responsibility comes in. I would have to go back and read how it was organised, particularly in terms of allocating contracts, whether directly by Comomnwealth agencies.

Ken

5/07/2013ToM You have a poor grasp of English, a limited vocabulary,or are deploying deliberate propaganda techniques. The adverbs and verbs opening each point of your "repost" are mostly incorrect. The Government did "stimulate" the industry but by linking that to safety regulation, a State matter,you have deliberately constructed a misleading sentence. Perhaps the program attracted inexperienced operators but that was in no way "deliberate". The government did not "encourage" the recruitment of inexperienced employees. That was purely a choice by the employers. The Commonwealth does not have a safety program because that is a matter for the States in regard to their building regulations. A minority of shonky operators were attracted to the scheme, BUT NOT BY THE GOVERNMENT. Just typical capitalists, as I posted in response to Catstain, that put profits over safety. The last point remains to be seen but may possibly be true. 1 out of 6 - sorry, a FAIL. The bottom line is that the Commonwealth Government, in legal terms, could [u]reasonably expect[/u] the safety issues to be covered by State regulations.

TalkTurkey

5/07/2013PoB I don't know just how but pollsters would certainly use algorithms to help correct for such problems as a mobile phone users' being unavailable ... They'll have done [i]polls[/i](!) on [i]samples[/i] of mobile phone users over time and have a pretty fair idea of the way they would vote vis a vis fixed phone users. But the problems with polling make that particular objection pale. Their "margins of error" [i]estimated[/i] at an average of around 2% in any close TPP are in any case enough, often, to mean that either side might win anyway ... Noting [i]also[/i] that, given that electoral boundaries can mean that a majority of seats may be won with a minority of votes [i]at least[/i] as low as 49.5%, a poll even days before an election of a 49-51 means nothing at all! Why do we bother with them? A poll is a like a snapshot at a given moment. Picture all the traffic over the Sydney Harbour Bridge on a Saturday shown in one frame: Imagine we're counting how many private vehicles versus commercial vehicles on that one day. Why would one assume that there is any repeatability in that proportion? Clearly there's always going to be lots of both, but all sorts of never-to-be-repeated unique factors apply to each time frame. Even when [i]everything humanly possible[/i] is done to allow for those exigencies. And a week can turn polls around. There is only one that counts. I look back on this post and I've said nothing new. It's all so obvious. Except for the one worm in the bud: The Bandwagon Effect. People get with what they think is the strength, and that influences outcomes. And that can get Prime Ministers changed, and maybe LOTOs too.

Ken

5/07/2013Sorry ToM I've revised my marking. Now 0 from 6. I was a bit slow to pick up that "ignored" is also the wrong verb. As an ex PS, it would not have been ignored but would have been under investigation, just slowly, because there are so many legal hoops to go through. So if there is a genune point here it is that a response may not have been quick enough, not that it was ignored.

Heather

5/07/2013Okay leave the electricity on so their guys would do a better job at plastic stapling or risk electrocution. I know there are some sadistic tradies around but this would take the prize. Problem is that some of the electrical work in the houses may have been faulty in first place. How would they know this? Get up in the ceiling space and throw the sislation around. More likely people being troppo and not thinking straight during the hot summer was the problem. I was appalled at how they blamed it all on Peter Garret and he as a young teen watched on unable to do anything, while his family home burnt to the ground with his mother inside. The whole mindset of knocking the Rudd Govt for doing the insulation to save on energy consumption is pretty gutless in my books. Just try living in an uninsulated house anywhere in Australia during the extremes of heat and cold and you will understand how necessary and important this gesture was. But the nasty LN Coalition nutters cant handle doing good for the voters because for them it has to be all badness and punishment. Not to mention crushing the workers, dumb them down attitudes. Balancing the wealth and comfort is definitely a Labor Party strong point and could be much more supported in this country to recover the "lucky" status. The insulation project and the BER were given to the community from our own taxes, to allow jobs to happen plus businesses to keep on going through the down times. It was part of not going under to the GFC, by allowing the money to flow. Both were good achievements of the Labor Govt, but like anything, not perfect roll outs once the human factor came in to it. It is the old knocker problem rising up from the chronic relevance deprivation syndrome we seem to have as a nation...and I am trying to be relevant about all this...LOL

Jason

5/07/2013Ken I found this from NormanK NormanK July 5, 2013 at 1:59 pm leonetwo Just so that the record is straight, the death in the Cairns area was caused by the workers themselves going out and buying metal staples (which were banned in the latter part of the HIP) because they didn’t like working with the plastic staples. ‘Cause of death’ – personal stupidity. The one in Southeast Qld was caused by an inexperienced worker using an aluminium pole (some reports say steel) to push the batts into place. ‘Cause of death’ – insufficient supervision by employer + personal stupidity. The death in Sydney was of a young man of simple intellect who turned up for work because his mate couldn’t make it so he was covering for him. ‘Cause of death’ – inexperience + lack of employer supervision. The users of aluminium foil insulation went to great lengths to maintain their self-regulation when they were faced with the threat of an independent regulator such as existed for pink batts and ‘slurry’ installers. Here’s the run-down on all of the deaths: Mitchell Sweeney WORKERS laying government-subsidised ceiling insulation, including a young man who was electrocuted, used banned metal staples because it made the work go faster, a court heard yesterday. 
Mitchell Sweeney, 22, died in February last year at a home in Millaa Millaa, far north Queensland. The accident occurred months after staples were banned on the order of environment minister Peter Garrett. 
The court heard Titan directed staff to use plastic fasteners, but Mr Sweeney and co-workers ignored the advice, one saying, “we found it faster”. 
www.theaustralian.com.au/…/story-e6frg6nf-1226124879571 

 Matthew Fuller 
 QHI Installations Pty Ltd was fined after the company was charged with failing to conduct its business in a way that was electrically safe, 
Christopher John McKay pleaded guilty to the charge. A guilty plea was also entered on behalf of the company. 
www.couriermail.com.au/…/story-e6freoof-1226000144988 

 Rueben Barnes 
 The first-year apprentice carpenter was working with two other men when he was electrocuted while using a steel pole to move the insulation into place. 
 http://www.abc.net.au/…/2265916 

 ‘Casual approach’ a factor in roof death: coroner 
by Paul Bibby SMH

 The “casual approach to health and safety” by a Sydney insulation company contributed significantly to the death of a teenager who passed away after installing roof insulation in 40-plus degree temperatures, a coroner has found. 

********** 

Mr Wilson had been working under the broad umbrella of the federal government’s much maligned home insulation scheme. But the coroner attributed no blame to this program for the young man’s death. 
www.smh.com.au/…/…-coroner-20121004-270×4.html It is worth noting that at the time of their deaths, the states were responsible for the enforcement of their own OHS standards. Even so, how do you maintain sufficient oversight such that you can prevent an employer from sending workers into 60 degree heat or using a steel pole in a ‘live’ ceiling or going out and buying their own staples, leaving the ones provided by the company unused?

Ken

5/07/2013Jason Very interesting. Makes one wonder what the current coroner was up to!!!

TalkTurkey

5/07/2013Barry Tucker ‏@btckr 1h If you compare the advert http://bit.ly/19XV9Do with the @ABC_NewsRadio story http://bit.ly/14VjsP5 the bias & anti-Rudd spin is obvious. The message of the paid advertisement is fine but OMG the presentation! Did she write it for people to read? How many out of a thousand newspaper buyers are going to read such a MONOLUMP? This isn't 1890, people have a lot more options, [i]why not use subheadings?[/i] So much easier to read fast! Less would've been a lot more I fear. I really don't mean to be negative, I just think that such a major outlay could've had lot more impact. But for the message itself, I'm with it all the way. Recaptcha: * cummiest present * The mind boggles ...

Tom of Melbourne

5/07/2013Proof that so many here know nothing about the multiple factors that cause workplace fatalities.

Jason

5/07/2013Proof that so many here know nothing about the multiple factors that cause workplace fatalities. Whatever Tom! I have an app on my phone with the sound of crickets and I play them when I read your posts on this subject.

lyn

5/07/2013Hi Ad, So pleased you got all that mowing done, big job but satisfying to see the pastures all cared for. Glad you enjoyed the links. Like you I look forward to Andrew Leigh’s Battlers and Billionaires. Maybe it is time to re-visit your article & John L’s on the pink Batts [b]“ The Great Big Home Insulation Program Beat-up” Tuesday, 2 March 2010 22:35 by Ad astra [/b] Has any journalist shown the guts to expose the other side of the story, has any journalist had the patience to garner the salient facts and reveal them to a public already made sceptical by the torrent of adverse coverage day after day? http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/post/2010/03/02/The-Great-Big-Home-Insulation-Program-Beat-up.aspx [b]Absurdities abound as Abbott wages a crass war Monday, 13 February 2012 18:34 by JohnL [/b]In this first part of a two-part series, I have used official statistics to demonstrate how absurdities abound in the crass war on the HIP by Tony Abbott and his henchman Greg Hunt. In the second part I will explore Abbott’s amazing amnesia about his own statements and provide further examples of inconsistencies and false claims by the Opposition on the HIP. http://www.sundaydrives.com.au/post/2012/02/13/Absurdities-abound-as-Abbott-wages-a-crass-war.aspx Truth Seeker cheers back to you, we love your work and so do all the twitters , they tweet like mad when I feed them. KHTAGH good to see you, your comment is absolutely correct, spot on. You ended with “ [quote]Nothing has changed it would seem we still have the ABC hell bend on a change of government, regardless of the players”[/quote] Absolutely right, but I tell you what, I have noticed as extremely outstanding, ABC24 calling the Prime Minister Prime Minister, they never paid that small piece of respect to Julia Gillard. Miserable lot they are and Leigh Sales takes the name [b]Miserablist [/b] Talk Turkey, thankyou for your cheery bright Good Morning so lovely to read first thing in the morning. You said “ [quote]Over There in your new home, sure as the sun will soon rise, you are flitting around the blogosphere[/quote]” our Townhouse is called “Sunlight” every window beams the morning sun. All windows are fitted with white wooden exterior filter blinds, it really is bright and beautiful every morning .

Jason

5/07/2013Tom, 16 people died building the Sydney Harbour Bridge,121 Snowy Mountains Scheme, 108234 Iraqi civilians died: Pink Batts, 4 deaths

Heather

5/07/2013Thanks for all that good info Jason, plus Ad Astro for old writings. Why am I not surprised! Did not sit right with me when it all happened and until now I have not had all the facts. What a pack of liars and BS artists are the Libs huh? And some people out there are so silly to believe them. Those poor young men were at the mercy of lack of proper direction from their bosses and not being kept a good eye on. It was a very lucrative thing for a lot of people and jobs for people when things were looking grim. Now they are trying to have another go of messing up something which was actually very good. How are we going to save this planet with humans like this around. Big DELETE to the Tony Abbotts out there... Aren't we so lucky he could never form a minority govt.!!!

Ken

5/07/2013Poor Tom, backs off at the first sign of a genuine fact!!!

Jason

5/07/2013Ken, If the program has proved anything, it is that Australia abounds with shonky businesses, ''she'll be right'' tradesmen, hypocritical politicians who habitually sacrifice workplace safety on the altar of business-friendly policy, and careless, pack-hunting journalists. That, I'm afraid, is not much of a revelation at all. Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/insulation-fire-risk-was-worse-before-rebate-20100303-pivv.html#ixzz2Y9tBXy1p

Tom of Melbourne

5/07/2013Hilarious! Jason identifies a range of the reasons/risks that the government could and should have foreseen. Which is why the coroner has made some reasonable findings. Keep digging that hole for yourself.

Martin Spalding

5/07/2013ToM - that is an astonishing position to take. You aren't presenting facts, just assertions. Jason and others here laid out an array of facts about the unfortunate deaths of the four workers, and you just walk right past them. How can you do this? Everyone knows there are multiple factors involved in workplace deaths. That's a truism. Our point is that the Fed Govt's role in these particular ones is grossly exaggerated, especially by the Murdoch press. If you apply the same sky-high standard for Fed Gov culpability to every work fatality, no gov in history would have clean hands.

Tom of Melbourne

5/07/2013What?? A coroner is part of the Murdoch press!!??!!

Martin Spalding

5/07/2013No, but is what the Coroner said presented in a balanced way in the Murdoch press, or are they just slavering to paint the Rudd govt in the worst possible light? What of the responsibilities of other parties?

Tom of Melbourne

5/07/2013The coroner examined the range of factors that contributed to the fatalities. They didn’t find the government was singularly responsible, but shared it. Jason points to a range of factors that the government could and should have addressed in implementing the program. What exactly are your qualifications and knowledge to suggest that the coroner’s finding was wrong?

jane

5/07/2013As usual, ToM conveniently ignores the fact that the states are responsible for OH&S regulations and that states like SA which have regulations in place to prevent unlicensed installers from installing insulation under HIP, had no deaths or fires. Qld notoriously did not have regulations in place & 3 deaths occurred there, one of which was entirely the fault of the installer who had used metal staples despite his employer's express instructions not to do so. In fact, although he had been issued with regulation plastic staples, he discarded the plastic staples & bought & used metal staples. To say that the government should bear responsibility for the fires & deaths is just as absurd as saying that lending institutions are responsible for irresponsible drivers, shonky builders & crooked businessmen.

Tom of Melbourne

5/07/2013That’s really interesting Jane. Federal governments impose codes of conduct on a range of organizations and programs they fund, they don’t simply leave regulation up to the states. • Did you know that? The government has gone to the trouble of having a specific OHS induction and training program for NBN. • Did you know that? • Do you think they may have learnt from the HIP mistakes? The coroner has found that the government did not set appropriate demands on contractors working on the HIP program. • Jane, are you more informed on this subject than the coroner?

TalkTurkey

5/07/2013From bushfirebill at The Pub You gotta hand it to BB, he has amazing insight. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ July 5, 2013 at 4:50 pm A heartfelt tribute to Julia Gillard… Perhaps it’s because we can’t bear to see her go, revered as she is by the nation; this warm-hearted, genial soul who seems so much like one of us. Nah, just kidding… But still, the perception persists that ‘Our Mel’ has been treated badly, yet another woman on TV given the cold shoulder when their male cohorts roll on forever. It’s not just Mel. It’s Kerri-Anne, Tracey Spicer, Jessica Rowe, Kellie Connolly, Helen Kapalos, Deborah Knight – talented and experienced women shunted off into the night because their time was deemed to be up. This is the reality for women… in TV. Apparently someone called “Mel” got the boot from Sunrise. http://www.dailylife.com.au/news-and-views/dl-opinion/all-the-hallmarks-of-a-dead-set-boning-20130705-2pgb2.html Reality TV meets Reality.

Jason

6/07/2013Jane, Fear not Tom is talking out of his arse again! He asks "What exactly are your qualifications and knowledge to suggest that the coroner’s finding was wrong? I guess Tom could be asked the same question but who gives a F@ck what he thinks or knows? ToM if you work in OH&S give all of us the benefit of your considered opinion! if not STFU!

lyn

6/07/2013Today’s Links When the Mainstream Media fails you take out an Ad by @TheHoopla “The mainstream media has ignored the huge resevoir of decent men and women who have watched with horror the last three years of politics – no-one has articulated this message for them,” Ms Crooks said. http://thehoopla.com.au/giving-gillard-due-credit/ Anne Summers Reports #3 by Anne Summers Today, in Anne Summers Reports, we publish our exclusive and revealing interview with Julia Gillard. http://annesummers.com.au/pdf/ASR_Issue_3.pdf Julie Collins hits back after Liberals mock her speech in campaign video by Oliver Laughland Well that was in 2010, as I said. More than three years ago. It was a long interview of three to four minutes. They've taken a short space, they've spliced it, and it really is just showing the Liberal party has no policies, nothing positive to talk about. All they want to do is attack people and put up negative ads," http://m.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/05/julie-collins-liberal-campaign-video?CMP=twt_gu When blocking a troll escalates risk of troll-harm: A @geeksrulz investigation by Tony Yegles (The Geek) For this I use detailed historical records from domaintools.com, which has an extensive collection of domain name ownership records, as well as Whois Lookup, Whois History, Reverse Whois, DNS & IP Tools and Topsy Twitter search engine. http://nofibs.com.au/2013/07/05/when-blocking-a-troll-escalates-risk-of-troll-harm/ Why people gave $50,000 for Ashbygate investigation by @independentaus If the players behind the issue had managed to effectively muzzle the entire nation’s mainstream media, including its public broadcaster, then you are going to need some decent firepower to even make a start. Journalists, investigators, lawyers, support staff, expenses, it takes a lot to cover a story like this. http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/why-people-gave-50000-for-ashbygate-investigation/ It could only happen in America. Or could it? by @MigloMT According to the opinion polls Tony Abbott now has a more formidable opponent. But this might mean zilch if the blowtorch isn’t applied to him like it was to Romney in the latter stages of the US campaign. As noted above, 55 percent viewed him as being out of touch with average Americans. http://theaimn.com/2013/07/05/it-could-only-happen-in-america-or-could-it/ An appeal for decency by @btckr9 Incidentally, the ABC News Radio report on the advertisements gives observers of news media a chance to see cherry picking, spin and bias in action. If you read the advertisement first and then read the ABC story you can clearly see what the reporter has done. http://truthinmediaresourcecentre.wordpress.com/2013/07/05/an-appeal-for-decency/ “Pink batts”: Tony Abbott bravely criticising ALP for not regulating small business enough by @jeremysear This is why we can be confident that Tony Abbott will set out, very shortly, any day now, probably this week while people are interested in the “pink batts” deaths as an example of why these policies are needed, his plan to increase regulation of small businesses, http://anonymouslefty.wordpress.com/ Kevin Rudd & the politics of mining by @SarahEBurnside When asked last week whether he would reconsider the form of the mining tax, Rudd said: ‘I don’t foreshadow anything dramatic on it.’ Perhaps the past few years have once again imparted a harsh lesson about the limits of public ownership and the perils of seeking a greater return on the common wealth http://overland.org.au/2013/07/kevin-rudd-and-the-politics-of-mining/ Indonesia's president has thrown the Labor government a lifeline on asylum seekers, repudiating Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's plan to turn boats around by SBS Dr Yudhoyono delivered a telling rebuke of Mr Abbott's plan to tow boats back to Indonesia with insistence that "unilateral action" be avoided featuring prominently in a joint communique issued after the talks with Mr Rudd. http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1786050/SBY-torpedoes-Abbott-boat-plan Conroy’s legacy by @mumbrella Ruthven feels Conroy was committed to his plan for the NBN and understood the long term ramifications of fast broadband far better than the opposition. The less expensive alternative put forward by shadow minister Malcolm Turnbull to install fibre optic cables to the nearest corner or node and then run it through the existing http://mumbrella.com.au/conroys-legacy-165752 My Dear Julia Gillard by @FairMediaAllian your beloved ALP, or for the ‘nation’ as you like to refer to us – you told us to keep on, to put our energies behind Kevin Rudd, and to do everything we can do to defeat Tony Abbott http://fairmediaalliance.wordpress.com/2013/07/05/my-dear-julia-gillard-2/ Private Incumbents A Poor Example by @sortius Of the examples the man who “invented the internet in Australia” (try not to laugh too hard guys), Malcolm Turnbull, many revolve around showing that private sector investment by incumbent service providers is in xDSL technologies, & not end-to-end fibre. http://sortius-is-a-geek.com/?p=3145 Today’s Front Pages Australian Newspaper Front Pages for 6 July 2013 http://www.thepaperboy.com/australia/front-pages.cfm News headlines http://www.hotheadlines.com.au/

lawriejay

6/07/2013Yes Gordonwa (30/6) Crispy Capstan Tom have the same DNA and it is on display in all their comments, they all have a common LNP characteristics Duplicitous Narcissistic Acerbity.

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6/07/2013LYN'S DAILY LINKS updated: http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/page/LYNS-DAILY-LINKS.aspx

Michael

6/07/2013John Howard, talking about Tony Abbott in today's Fairfax Press: "I don't think there is a better read person in the party, or anyone who has a better grasp of philosophy or history, than the leader." Well, he got that right. A leader who talks in monosyllabic slogans undoubtedly reads just as limitedly. And Abbott's followers? Manifestly even further behind.

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6/07/2013Hi Lyn Thank you for alerting us to previous pieces on [i]TPS[/i] about the HIP. Having re-read the one I wrote on 2 March 2010, I realize we are having a reprise of the same story the Fourth Estate ran then. Must have been easy journalism second time around! The same rebuttals still apply, despite what the coroner has said. http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/post/2010/03/02/The-Great-Big-Home-Insulation-Program-Beat-up.aspx JohnL’s analysis on 13 February lays out the facts for all to see. http://www.sundaydrives.com.au/post/2012/02/13/Absurdities-abound-as-Abbott-wages-a-crass-war.aspx As the Harry S Truman saying goes: [i]“There’s nothing new in the world, except the history you do not know.”[/i]

Curi-Oz

6/07/2013I use HootSuite to handle my twitter habits ;-) so was slightly amused to notice that they have set up a "command centre" to keep an eye on the Australian election http://blog.hootsuite.com/australian-election-tracker/ Thought those who are also afflicted by the spectacle would appreciate another view on the circus... Regards,

Tom of Melbourne

6/07/2013Ad Astra – [i] The same rebuttals still apply, despite what the coroner has said.[/i] Really, what possibly rational reason is there for dismissing the findings of a coroner so easily? The only possibly reason is political convenience, typical shocking hypocrisy.

Jason

6/07/2013Ken, Rather than take any notice of what Tom has to say, here is what the coroner said! http://www.courts.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/203374/cif-fuller-mj-barnes-rk-sweeney-ms-20130704.pdf

Ken

6/07/2013re HIP [u]Facts[/u]: Phase 1 of HIP involved a subsidy ($1600)being paid directly to Home Owners but that lasted only a few months before Phase 2 was implemented in which made payments direct to installers. "To participate in Phase 2, installers had to be registered on the Installer Provider Register and agree to: • comply with the program guidelines, relevant laws and meet minimum competency requirements[47]; • install insulation in accordance with Australian Standards and Building Codes, and within a specified R‐Value; • keep full and accurate records in relation to all aspects of the program; • maintain workers’ compensation insurance (where installers were not sole traders), public liability insurance and property damage insurance; and • employees holding an Occupational Health and Safety (OH&S) ‘White Card’[48]. [47] At the commencement of the program, only supervisors were required to satisfy one of three minimum competencies: prior industry experience; a qualification in an approved trade; or insulation specific training. In December 2009, the registration requirements were tightened, and consequently, the Government announced that all installers were required to satisfy one of these minimum competencies, with evidence to be provided to Medicare Australia by February 2010. [48] A White Card is a nationally recognised competency based certification to demonstrate that the holder is competent to work safely in the construction industry (CPCCOHS1001A "Work Safely in the Construction Industry" qualification)." So there were basic requirements, including an OH&S White Card for [u]all[/u] employees. As others have said, the program could have been better managed, but the role of the Government in the tragic outcomes (only 4 in over a million installations) is being grossly exaggerated. [Note that Medicare is mentioned because it was actually processing the payments.]

Ken

6/07/2013Thanks Jason for the link to the Coroner's report. Shonky business men indeed!! Especially considering that he actually recommends that a number of them be referred for posssible prosecution, including for perjury.

Tom of Melbourne

6/07/2013The experts here want to argue with the coroner! Jason’s link is useful, try reading some of it and then suggest which parts aren’t reasonable findings… ----- [i]The regulation of work place safety is primarily a State Government responsibility. However, it is reasonable to expect that when the Commonwealth Government injects $2.7 billion into the economy via a program designed to create employment for unskilled and/or unemployed workers, it will have regard to the possible safety implications. That occurred when the HIP was launched but the scoping of the risks likely to be generated and the safeguards that would contain them were miscalculated and inadequate. Undoubtedly, a major contributor to the failure to put in place adequate safeguards was the speed with which the program was conceived, designed and implemented. ---- No comprehensive program of audit was instituted as an initial part of the package on the basis that all operators were required to comply with state and territory workplace health and safety requirements. The program’s only real control mechanism was a refusal to pay unless certain criteria were met but it had minimal mechanisms in place to monitor these. ----- Inadequate safeguards to protect installers from the risk of electrocution were mandated because the risk management process which informed the design of the program did not identify the magnitude of that risk accurately.[/i]

Ken

6/07/2013Sorry ToM Your dyslexia is showing again. But I don't have time to explain to you what you have actually read. Sorry, but you're on your own. Just read it slowly and see if you can comprehend it that way. I would help if I had more time.

Jason

6/07/2013Insiders ABC ‏@InsidersABC 2m .@JulieBishopMP joins #insiders from Singapore plus panel @GMegalogenis David Marr & Gerard Henderson. @mpbowers joined by @jonkudelka

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6/07/2013Hi Lyn I’m working through your wonderful links. Everyone should read Anne Summers interview with Julia Gillard, and the article on [i]The Hoopla[/i]. They are a good introduction to the piece that I will post tomorrow: [i]An accolade for Julia Gillard: a fine prime minister[/i].

Jason

6/07/2013Tom, I'm sure the former PM would much prefer her record than that of a mincing tosser like you! /

TalkTurkey

6/07/2013Peter Overton ‏@pete_overton 56s “@overingtonc: The wonderful @bairdjulia writes about Julia Gillard in The New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/06/opinion/in-australia-misogyny-lives-on.html?emc=tnt&tntemail0=y&_r=1& …” powerful read. Amanda Jones ‏@AmandaARJones 4h Not sure I have ever been more ashamed of being Australian. The Bullying of Julia Gillard: http://youtu.be/tsECK-gRCGc via @youtube

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6/07/2013TT Thanks. Julia Baird's piece was great read, and the YouTube clips of Alan jones [i]et al[/i] disgusting in the extreme. What revolting sexist behaviour from several so-called men!

Catching up

6/07/2013Tom, why does a coroners report carry sp much weigh, obne by the way seems to blame everyone involved, than a Judgment from a higher court, that of Justice Rares. Why is it OL to reject to previous investigation, including that of the Audit Commission, that cleared Garrett and the government. Just asking. Tom, why only focus on what was said about the Federal government. Why let the main, and direct cause of the men's death, the employers, completely off the hook. Why not also mention that the state government was also not seen in a good light. What is really been said, Garrett and Rudd should not have went ahead, because the employers were noy up to the task. Where does this leave Abbott with his call fro less business regulation. If this finding is correct, there is a great need for more. Yes, the deaths are a shocking waste of young lives. Yes, they should not have dies. No, a worthwhile project should have gone ahead. The employers should have done the right thing, acknowledge the warnings and ensured the safety of their workers. I believe that one employers, put his son in charge, the one that had no property, Yes, coroners are known to get it wrong. Tom, have you bothered too take time to read the report. Readers when if comes some women, I suspect most, Tom can hate hard and long. Same goes for unions. That is just the way it is.

Catching up

6/07/2013Why do some support Mr. Abbott and today Mr. Hunt, using the coroners report to make political capital out of these young men's death. Listening to the 7.30 interview, I yearned to yell to the parents. why ate you allowing yourself to be used. Of course, if there was no insulation scheme, the deaths would not have occurred. A lot of other worthwhile things would not have also happened. Does that lead to the scheme being to blame. I suggest not. What is to blame, and only to blame is the negligence of the employers. One can twist that repost, to get it too say, what you like, but if the employers lived up to their responsibilities, they would be alive. It is like saying to a driver at an accident scene, no matter the actions of others, it is you fault for setting out on the journey. If you stayed home, there would have been no accident. That is what many, including it appears the coroner, are trying to say.

Tom of Melbourne

6/07/2013Catching Up, why do you bother to post so much evidence that you’re bitter and just make stuff up? 1. Give it away, no one and certainly not me, has suggested that the government is solely responsible. But you and your mates have been at pains to explain away the shared accountability of the government. 2. Why do you make gender an issue? The fact that you post plenty of nonsense has nothing to do with you being a woman, in my opinion.

Catching up

6/07/2013Tom, replied as one would expect. Nothing new there. Tom, I would ask you the same question, why bother. Curious, what have I ever written, that leads you to believe I am bitter. It is curious, as I see a wonderful, exciting future for Australia, That is if Abbott does not get his hands on the tiller.

Catching up

6/07/2013Tom, why have I mentioned gender? Could be, because that is the impression I get from many years of following what you write.

Catching up

6/07/2013Tom, I know that you think, if I went away your world would be perfect. I would have thought by now, you would have realise this is not going to happen. Sorry, you will just have to learn to scroll past. That is an option, you have.

Catching up

6/07/2013 What was Rudd exactly apoligising for? <blockquote>".......Kevin Rudd’s apology for the deaths of young men working on a government home insulation scheme has been interpreted as an admission'''''''''''''"</blockquote> http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/05/insulation-fitters-compensation-rudd-apology

Tom of Melbourne

6/07/2013Catching Up – [i] “Tom, I know that you think, if I went away your world would be perfect.”[/i] Not at all. I think your comments are hilarious! Among the most entertaining in the blogosphere. I really enjoy the way you post a comment, and contradict yourself a few minutes later. Then you post a link to a graph (for example) that demonstrates the opposite of your observation…and you post on things like aircraft safety in complete ignorance of the facts! No Catching Up, with all that, you are just too entertaining a blogger to miss!

TalkTurkey

6/07/2013What now for our *J*U*L*I*A*? She is not really a loss - She will re-emerge - We have not seen the best of her. World Leader amongst Women for the rest of her life.. She will give Rudd completely clear air until the election - the air she cleared for her own race to the line. After that she is a Member of the Australian Labor Party, its most powerful ordinary Member at that. Ordinary? - Only in the sense of not being a parliamentarian any more. Sob. But the world is really her (respectful) oyster (as they say). I wouldn't be a blue-tie curmudgeon who seriously crosses Julia Gillard from now on. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-05/women27s-rights-group-accuses-kevin-rudd-of-treachery/4800964 But ... First we win election ... [i]Then we look within![/i] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0rZ2CPCYBQ

lawriejay

6/07/2013To have been treated fairly - one would have to say Julia Gillard was treated ?? justly ? honourably ? honestly ? squarely ? equitably ? in a fair manner ? even handedly ? in a just way ? rightly ? impartially ? dispassionately ? objectively ? legitimately ? properly ? and; as I search thr inner reaches of my command of logic, for the life of me, no one could willingly endorse any view or opinion that would suggest that she was, otherwise that they be in Murdoch Rupert's employ ?

Catching up

7/07/2013Tom, I am aware of how you see my comments. I have been told they are so enthralling, they keep another site afloat. Saying that, I do not believe our interchanges here amuse anyone, do you. Therefore once again I draw a line under the interchanges. Sweet dreams.

Michael

7/07/2013Did Scott Morrison declare war on Indonesia yesterday? His comments read like that. Certainly they are Bwana-talk.

TalkTurkey

7/07/2013Zab ‏@zabmustefa 31m "This 12-year-old boy has more sense than any political party in #Egypt. Never seen such an intelligent kid" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeDm2PrNV1I …

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7/07/2013Folks I thought [i]Insiders[/i] was pretty benign this morning, with three reasonable panellists. Julie Bishop ran the Coalition line that the communiqué out of the Yudhoyono/Rudd meeting about parties to the boat problem not taking unilateral action referred to Rudd’s 2008 actions, and not to the Coalition threat to turn boats around. That is a very long bow. Gerard Henderson defended Abbott’s right to not debate Rudd, George Mega thought more explanation about the HIP matter was needed, and Andrew Catsaris reminded us yet again that ‘polls are reflective not predictive’.

Tom of Melbourne

7/07/2013[i]”Therefore once again I draw a line under the interchanges.”[/i] It’s always your choice, if you commence an exchange, I’m likely to reply. However I will always take the option of pointing out irrational comments from anyone.

Truth Seeker

7/07/2013Hey swordsters, posted last night [b]"Since when did motherhood statements become policies?"[/b] :-) http://truthseekersmusings.wordpress.com/2013/07/06/since-when-did-motherhood-statements-become-policies/ And my latest poem [b]"Said the Abbott to the Bishop"[/b] should be posted later toda or tomorrow :-) Cheers :-) :-)

Algernon

7/07/2013I thought Bishop was one dimensional on Insiders today just a negative drone from go to whoa. This person could be the next Foreign Minister and she hasn't picked up on the language coming out Indonesia, Doesn't get the Asian losing face thing, yet continues to bark the base rhetoric of her party. Thought Gerard was his usual insipid self and George unusually quite. Interesting too that Catsaris yet again pointed out that polls are reflective rather than predictive. And being reflective shows that Labor based on those figures state by state are one seat in front of the coalition. The other thing was that this election will be based on policy and ideas for the first time since 1993. This is a real danger for the Liberals as they have none of that.

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7/07/2013Folks Posted just now: [i]An accolade to Julia Gillard: a fine prime minister[/i]. http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/post/2013/07/07/An-accolade-for-Julia-Gillard-a-fine-prime-minister.aspx

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7/07/2013TT What extraordinary understanding that Arab lad had. He was more articulate and more on the ball than most of our politicians, and almost all of our so-called political commentators. Truth Seeker Your latest piece was a very good read. Abbott did not accept Leigh Sales’ invitation to come on [i]7.30[/i], although she failed to tell her audience of this, and now he seems unwilling to debate Kevin Rudd. Is he a ‘chicken’? Looks like it. Algernon There are none so deaf as those who do not want to hear? Julie Bishop seems not only to be deaf to what Indonesia is saying about the boats, but truculently saying that in government they will do as the please. But she can’t match the arrogance of Scott Morrison, about whom Michael reasonably asks: “[i]Did Scott Morrison declare war on Indonesia yesterday?[/i]”
How many umbrellas are there if I start with two and take 2 away?